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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Morning all. This mornings GFS run holds back the full throttle mild invasion into the UK again. Looks like not giving up its cold hold without a fight, Chart below keeps cold surface flow at day 10 .

 

GFSOPEU00_240_17.png

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Hmm, things don't look too great from my own point of view:

gfsnh-0-192.pngECH1-192.GIF?12-12

Looks like this may take a while to shift!

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm, things don't look too great from my own point of view:

gfsnh-0-192.pngECH1-192.GIF?12-12

Looks like this may take a while to shift!

Hopefully I have read the chart right! It does for a while but not convinced its grip will be maintained in January looking at the two areas of low pressure around the Greenland and Siberia.the colder less dense air looks for prone to lobing and spilling out of the arctic than normal. Any SSW will pretty much destroy any strong vortex fornation. I think the words vulnerable and potential are appropriate here.

 

 

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What are people's thoughts on the chances of this happening tomorrow night? I get it is the Gfs and it overplays snow.

I am not very good at reading charts so I can't tell what the conditions would be on ecm.

But the regional forecast also mentions rain turning to snow? 

IMG_0280.PNG

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1 minute ago, robbo88 said:

What are people's thoughts on the chances of this happening tomorrow night? I get it is the Gfs and it overplays snow.

I am not very good at reading charts so I can't tell what the conditions would be on ecm.

But the regional forecast also mentions rain turning to snow? 

IMG_0280.PNG

It's something the Met Office are keeping a close eye on as the system moves SE there could be snow to low levels during tomorrow's rush hour in the NW. High ground could see quite a depth. 

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5 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

What are people's thoughts on the chances of this happening tomorrow night? I get it is the Gfs and it overplays snow.

I am not very good at reading charts so I can't tell what the conditions would be on ecm.

But the regional forecast also mentions rain turning to snow? 

IMG_0280.PNG

100% accurate i would say, it has a small patch of green right over my house, amazing accuracy

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One straw I can grasp this morning is a comparison to winter 1990/91:

Major December snow event - check (remember Dec 1990!)

Milder period after that. (Check out Christmas Day 1990, yuk). 

And keep your fingers and toes and everything else crossed for another Feb 1991!

The output is not great at the moment if it's cold your after but without wanting to go over old ground there are still a few straws to clutch in various places. 

Edited by Paul_1978

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16 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

100% accurate i would say, it has a small patch of green right over my house, amazing accuracy

Euro4 showing the same thing!!

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Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

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10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

One straw I can grasp this morning is a comparison to winter 1990/91:

Major December snow event - check (remember Dec 1990!)

Milder period after that. (Check out Christmas Day 1990, yuk). 

And keep your fingers and toes and everything else crossed for another Feb 1991!

The output is not great at the moment if it's cold your after but without wanting to go over old ground there are still a few straws to clutch in various places. 

Hold on you slated me for saying pretty much what you just posted!!

Anyway, yes i agree patience is going to be required 

Hopefully any Atlantic weather will be brief :)

I still think there is potential for a decent high ground snow event for pennine area tomorrow night..

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You just know its winter in the UK when the words straw clutching appear..anyway, I've enjoyed the BIG FREEEZE as the media have called it..bit of an exaggeration but its certainly a headline grabber:D The models show some more chilly weather to come this week before something more typical from the atlantic in the run up to crimbo but there's a very long way to go, things could look a lot better in the new year.

Edited by Frosty.
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43 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Pretty awful NWP output this morning. Knocker and Sidney must be thrilled!!

ECH1-240.GIF

Is there any light at the of the mild tunnel?

Yeh, the post directly above yours.

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1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

I think it is a bit early still to speak with absolute certainty though. Give it another five or six days and I'd be more inclined to agree with you if the output still indicates mild. Which brings me a question for anyone to answer if they can. What weather websites use ECM output for their forecasts, I use yr.no to see what ECM is showing but does anyone know of others?

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UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking us to the start of the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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15 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

If you can say that in 100 % confidence then you should put the lottery on at the weekend. The models are so volatile at the moment you can't even trust this weekend. I expect to see big changes appearing soon! But at the end of the day nobody really knows what Christmas will be like.

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking close to the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

To quote Mr Hammond..."The models are showing us one thing,whilst experience is telling us something rather different"

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16 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. 

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Thanks Paul

interesting times indeed.

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So the model output overnight doesn’t look great. But haven’t people been reading the updates from GP Tamara etc. We are going to see wild swings in the output. We were always due a milder faze upto xmas week. Which is what the models are now starting to show. But flipping heck it’s only the 12th of Dec we have another 3 months of winter to go. And the phrase straw clutch is been banded about with the output. Unbelievable Jeff. 

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Intriguing from Mr Hammond - increasing number of models showing mild westerlies won't last. Let's hope the METOs super computers show some different to the last few GFS FIs. Anyway, another cold shot from the north on Fri could bring yet more snow and frost, and with about 50 percent of England getting snow over the last few days,  and -13c all before mid Dec - that's pretty darn good so far in my eyes !! 

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A very poor start for coldies today with a hideous looking upstream pattern!

We've lost the shortwave which could track se through the UK and although one forms its simply too flat upstream to get that se and shear some energy away from the advancing tide of doom!

I think the absolute best in terms of hanging onto some surface cold is the Euro high getting far enough north, apart from that the GEFS look like a bloodbath with any colder solutions within T240hrs meeting a grisly end at the hands of the menacing PV to the nw!

The ECM ensembles for London do show the op once again one of the mildest solutions at times and in terms of pressure a lot of ensembles have higher values than the op so suggestions high pressure could get further north but its about the orientation and placement in terms of hanging onto a surface feed from mainland Europe.

Before that as we head towards the weekend another colder few days with a chance of something wintry so its not all bad.

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking us to the start of the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

Yes Gavin it's been showing for some time on the ensembles, a case of grin and bear it for coldies until next time.:)

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30 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. 

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Although an interesting blog, it was from 4 day ago I think. The models are showing a less cold trend now. Is this personal or professional experience he's stating. It''s a bit of straw clutches I think and I could say experience tells me I think at some point it will get cold this winter. This is no way a dig at you in anyway at all 😊. I just think realistically the way the high pressure is setting up to our southwest and the way pv is setting up I think we could be in for a flattish zonal period after next week and personal experience tell me not to try and guess anything after that 😉

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Positive AO and NAO on the GEM, GEFS and ECM EPS on the run up to Christmas. Negative to neutral PNA. This isn't indicative of a colder pattern for Western Europe.

It looks like there will be a milder phase after this colder one passes (yes, the UK is still under colder air, in case you forgot), but the duration is open to question and while still 13 days out, a lot can still change before the 25th.

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