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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

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https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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Either way some subtle but potentially significant differences within the T120 mark. For example here is the 12z GFS and UKMO

                       GFS                                                     UKMO
GFSOPEU12_120_1.png  image.thumb.png.2a9aab6e9202b720069c893b2d3fde57.png

The UKMO doesn't even have a low pressure system off NE Canada / Eastern US area...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Is there any review of how well or otherwise the various models perform over a period of time? This, that and other persons say that this or that model is good at this or that but is it ever scientifically analysed?

Thinking it was only 2 or 3 weeks ago that it was suggested, by some, that we would never have a snowflake again and winter was over before it started.

Were there any front runners of the models that predicted at anything more than a day or two, with some degree of accuracy, yesterdays snow event? Appreciate with some scenarios "Nowcasting" is the only thing that is appropriate for the fine detail of what is or going to happen in any particular location.

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Either way some subtle but potentially significant differences within the T120 mark. For example here is the 12z GFS and UKMO

                       GFS                                                     UKMO
GFSOPEU12_120_1.png  UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

The UKMO doesn't even have a low pressure system off NE Canada / Eastern US area...

Those persistent wedges of heights around Iceland could continue to aid in energy going SE rather than E or NE and help promote a Scandi ridge further down the line.

Certainly no raging zonality on offer an temperatures will remain below average for another week at least I would think.

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What about a potential ice-day next Sunday?

h850t850eu.png

 

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Looks like Sunday may well be another cold day (according to GFS 6z). Zonality on hold...

GFSOPUK12_147_5.thumb.png.3006b124555eb437719e088bdfd24b16.png

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Am' suprised theres not a lot more members/comments via 12z 

Ukmo/gfs

Some decent evolutions across suites.

Block holding up very well' and certainly cool-cold preety much throughout(reliable)

Zonal IT ISN'NT!!!

Just what I was intending to post...Any signs of a zonal train seem to have gone...

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Yes day 6 as some of the 06z suite suggested- picking up a signal for some resistance to an Atlantic breakthrough

gfs-0-144.png?12

energy heading se -cold air more resistant against a weaker Atlantic jet.Eventually it does flatten but the delay shows uncertainty for next week.

UKMO unfortunately still has too much energy over the top

UW144-21.GIF?11-17

I wonder if the ECM later will start to hint at a slower Atlantic.

Edited by phil nw.
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Just how balanced can it get? The slightest movement either way can be the difference between a week in the freezer and an out-of-season barbecue.:santa-emoji:

h850t850eu.png

 

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Well well, even out to T+180, no Atlantic intrusions to speak of are on offer. 

Yes the odds are in favour of this happening (I'm not in denial), but we can't say the output this season and today isn't without interest again. Gripping stuff!

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Thank goodness this is out in La La Land!

h850t850eu.png

If the frontal alignment was tilted more negatively it would be an absolute stonker, indeed it already is for very high ground in N.England and Scotland, imagine the drifts with those windspeeds.

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

So much I agree with about this.  The "signs" that are there are signs that are nearly always there.  They are the same signs that are seen when it looks like the zonal norm is set to return to ruin a cold snowy period and we are told we can safely ignore them.

I do admire the work and effort that Tamara puts in for example, but you only have to look at early December last year for hints being given of something developing to our north east.  we know how that turned out. 

Personally I always value TEITs input and am delighted to see him back.  I think Knocker is one of the best and I like Steve Murr though I read his post like I think he intends them to be read, as explanations of what needs to be seen to be the cold and snow over us, rather than determining what will actually happen.

Just three mentioned but many more admired who's comments are driven by what the models are showing as opposed to an expectation of what "background signals" will cause them to show eventually.

I got quite a bit of kudos from mates for picking this last weekend out as a potential snowy one two weeks ago from viewing from GFS output.  Over the course of those two weeks some of the runs swung wildly but it kept coming back to what it was once showing in the far reaches of FI.

My concern for Christmas is that it will be more on the ball now than it will be on a few runs it makes up to the day itself. And, unlike TEITS, my conclusion is that we are in for a very mild wet and windy Christmas period!

airpressure.png

It's far from what I would call a true zonal period coming up! 

Hardly a true zonal output with a raging PV on this run with heights over the Arctic. 

 

Now if you want to see a raging PV and classic zonal, look at December 2013! Even this shot could be considered the best of a bad bunch if there was one! 

image.png

image.png

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Thank goodness this is out in La La Land!

h850t850eu.png

Fascinating chart that one....that could lead towards the deep freeze with pressure ridging towards Greenland and imo would block any further Atlantic inroads and the block to ene backing west. Hmmmm, I am interested in the major block to ENE at that point and it’s influence just not enough....at that stage.  Anyway pure FI but interest neartime remains definitely.  

 

BFTP

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Could the increase in strong pv lobe around greenland/west of it, be causing conflicting signals and making the patterns flatter? The models maybe firing it up too much or overplaying. The 12z is much colder in the closer timeframe and also extends it too

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The cold air putting up a fight in both the GFS and UKMO.

The latter would have looked similar to the GFS if it had developed that ne USA low, the phasing of the GFS low with the PV acts to pull that further to the nw.

We'll have to see what the ECM makes of that low and NOAA will definitely commenting on that upstream low later on.

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The zonal pattern was always meant to be next week once the next ridge had been flattened as the +PNA backed off 

What we are working out is whether this will actually verify as a zonal spell or whether further amplification closer to the uk may develop a new pattern such as a Scandi ridge or nw European MLB 

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The 12z ens should be interesting. I feel like the models may start to sniff something close range and change the pattern ever so slowly. If this cold pattern does extend till sunday like it showing on the gfs 12z, then one would think the cold has been extended due to a slower and weaker atlantic? Making the assumption that height rises to scandi have more chance of developing. We have seen stuff pop up like this before in the past, im sure. Where models within 192 hours or so overplay any mild weather and then in the reliable timeframe, make minor adjustments. Those minor adjustments from  the normal atlantic driven weather. Im sure jan to marc 2013 was quite similar for this

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Polar Low?

500mb temperatures are cold enough you need them generally lower than -35C. 

47F3F845-EC5A-435D-9AF1-C92D9BBCDB8E.thumb.png.7daeddc5039d9004c37bb0e331245121.pngA851A9E0-6AB6-4A77-8D96-28F4461A8313.thumb.png.8fb60f14bcc4ccf80dc387844df0fb2e.png

I notice the fax chart for the same day Friday, has the same low feature coming S down East Coast. 

6680273E-087D-4D2B-A826-8F11D4F3348D.thumb.png.19857c2f792273496ccad87a66c4cdc3.png

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Just what I was intending to post...Any signs of a zonal train seem to have gone...

Although it might be worth shifting the stagnant fi.

Zonal then reload would be a good start.

The gem is goodbye winter hello spring.

But heights seem to rebuild fairly strong.

But might set up another block later towards end of the month.

And will be get a warming in the stratosphere,

these will all help to aid towards a more seasonal January hopefully.

I've been keeping an eye on solar activity to an the SFI/solar flux index is dropping off nice.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Interestingly there's quite a bit more amplification in the Atlantic at day 4-5 with pressure lower in Europe.

Probably nothing but hopefully the trend can continue, it's something.

IMG_8621.PNG

IMG_8622.PNG

and what's that lurking to the top right of those charts. Is it the mighty Russian /sib high flexing its muscle . If is lets hope it becomes a main player in the winter ahead.

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