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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Forgive me for looking at day 16 charts but in GEFS - 22% are interested in height rises to NE the spread is quite emergent over Scandinavia, one to watch for the first week of January possibly..

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CB2E8FDF-F8A1-4F49-82ED-B708F02C1AB7.thumb.png.8f7dc74f50921786c9d66e40fd669003.pngDC55AAC2-130E-4CE2-AF88-FB8DE4C71E33.thumb.png.82ef55e2affa61f78af0586cbf91401e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

That’s a great shame Tamara. I find it quite disturbing how an individual who has done extensive reading, starting from nothing, has such a wealth of knowledge. And is ridiculed you can’t argue with the science, Tamara, always highlights the caveats - no wonder she doesn’t forecast what makes it all more baffling. This one-upmanship needs to stop at once, and TEITS I’ve seen very little signal of very mild SW’ly so a bit of a cherrypick 10 days out..

I’ve read it’s a bad as it gets? Hyperbole quite frankly a 3-4 day cold snap/spell is now firmly agreed upon and with that the chance of snow even possible away from usual places. 

18364CEE-FE8C-4C9E-9CDC-4D6BF93ADD36.thumb.gif.d15db824061ba4dffcda40d97ec5598b.gif

Not cherry picking at all. This is the model discussion thread and what is apparent to me is an over whelming signal for the new year to start on a mild note. This mildness is especially true for much of Europe into Siberia.

Sometimes you have to be realistic. For example our current spell of mild weather was ignored by some as I remember making a comment saying "Some are deluding themselves".

I learn't a long time ago that despite my cold bias it is better to be realisitic as it prevents disappointment. If you go back to previous posts in the model discussion thread over the past few weeks you will see what I mean. All you will read is some members dismissing our current mild spell, expecting an E,ly towards the end of the year.

 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Think the time has come to lock this one and start a fresh thread. Will post up the new one shortly. just trying to decide whether to stick to calling it model discussion or whether a change of name to the willy-waving thread may be a better fit? :ninja:

New thread here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89032-model-output-discussion-heading-into-christmas/

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