Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[geordiekev]

26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Plenty to be happy with, sinking jet, more interesting outlooks...and my solar wind burst to hit next couple of days.  

I think there’ll be a few ‘curtain twitchers’ come Xmas Day and more likely Boxing Day.  But not in my mild Redhill

BFTP

You know you can get medication for that, Blasty. Although, I think Epsom salts is the only type of salt on the menu at least up until the big day.

After that,  well anything is up for grabs, in my opinion, until the models get a handle of a huge chunk of warmth being thrown up into the Arctic. It always seems to be a game changer, if it does occur as shown on some of the latest runs. 

Hoping my name change might bring some luck going forward.  If not, I'll be back to Geordiekev come May 

[Dennis]

still signs for christmas.....

[karlos1983]

Let’s just say the ECM stops at +168.....you most certainly would not turn your nose up at this. Feel free to disagree.

A tweak here, a tweak there, BOOM 

Edited December 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Let’s just say the ECM stops at +168.....you most certainly would not turn your nose up at this. Feel free to disagree.

A tweak here, a tweak there, BOOM 

 

Oh!,i don't disagree,to me it is a good chart

I posted this earlier with the match from yesterday's 12z,now who's to say we would get a total split flow linking with the ridge from the atlantic on tomorrow's runs,that one will be a watch

like i said,the usual happens the other way round(heights pushing into greenland from the atlantic ridge),most unusual.

Edited December 20, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Oh!,i don't disagree,to me it is a good chart

I posted this earlier with the match from yesterday's 12z,now who's to say we would get a total split flow linking with the ridge from the atlantic on tomorrow's runs,that one will be a watch

like i said,the usual happens the other way round(heights pushing into greenland from the atlantic ridge),most unusual.

Yeah, I’ve been watching quietly... that arctic high has been pushing further with almost every run. I will continue to watch quietly, with optimism of course ?

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest from 18z is that the Alaskan ridge is further west into Russia than the 12z,looking good so far.

[Daniel*]

49 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Last time we had a potent northerly/north-westerly that contributed to some home grown cold.  Nothing doing this time...

I think you underestimate what is possible at this time of year. Best to not jump ahead, we’re still in this milder period which has narrowed, but looking at NWP, I don’t think it will be a mammoth undertaking for things to look much more wintry. I know some of the big guns are not really interested they may be right, but I do indeed see a chance of snow quite widely not apparent yet perhaps. A blockbuster cold spell is not on the horizon, however it may be enough to satisfy some not all. A lot are being quite obsessive with the stratosphere, it’s not really a make or break factor.. so far there’s been a disconnect will this continue quite possible, irrespective of increasing strength in zonal winds. I don’t see any indication of that on D10 ECM this is shaping up to be a bit of a weird winter IMO a bit of everything I foresee.

[geordiekev]

Chance of a few flakes for some lucky ones, mainly north of the border. Shame it's not tonight as I'm currently enjoying the fabulous Edinburgh festive markets to get into the mood.

[Allseasons-Si]

Slider alert on the 18z,the 12z showed this too,it's almost reminisent to the last cold spell with a trough to our NE forcing a trough in the atlantic to head SE.

i would suspect this to head further SE than modeled with the height gaining strength to our north,fascinating stuff

Edited December 20, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[SMU]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A bit like p9 Steve

Yes mate

once they go over the pole & get west of the meridian again it’s a non starter !

[comet]

Surprised at some of the dismissive posts tonight towards the model output. I for one am more than happy at the trends being shown, backed up imo I must add by the strat charts that I have been posting recently. Lets see where we are by Friday the model runs could have a much more wintry flavour to them by then.

Edited December 20, 2017 by comet

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes mate

once they go over the pole & get west of the meridian again it’s a non starter !

Good point,looked at the 12z gefs and not many get east of there,but still too far out to draw any conclusion but a trend to get heights into the pole from the epo ridge look on,but where will the final outcome come to?

[Frosty.]

A pretty vile end to 2017 / start of 2018 from the Gfs 18z with a long draw southerly all the way from north africa..more runs needed then

Edited December 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[blizzard81]

I must admit my optimism has waned as the day has progressed. From past experience, relying on a pacific high ridging in and becoming an Arctic high and then pinning our hopes on this bringing the goods to our shores is a total outsider. It seems to me that the end result is almost a west based nao. A limpet low stuck to the uk again. We seem to be a magnet to them.

[Guest]

Latest MJO and PNA Charts:

Just a short one from me, for a change! I don't think anyone posted the recently updated MJO charts today.

    SOURCE:  NCEP/GEFS - NOAA SITE              SOURCE:    http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really             

                                                         

Still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether the true MJO signature is being masked. I'm a little baffled by the different GEFS traces on the two charts (the green lines on both of them). I put the sources up but all the data comes from NOAA. The amplification in phase 1 is greater in the second chart! For the same index surely one of them must be in error? Anyway quite a mess overall.  I'm sure that @nick sussex will shortly find a report from NOAA on this or at least their thoughts on the current state. 

     

           SOURCE:- NOAA

                I copy the Dec 20th chart and it keeps reverting back to Dec19th. My comments are correct!

Most of the PNA ensemble members are going positive again towards the New Year, having been briefly negative for a few days. I think that this is bang in line with part of what @Tamaraand @Catacol were predicting in their recent posts towards the end of last week.This is what is starting to show up in the model output with fairly low pressure close to the Aleutians and a strong ridge through Alaska and into the Arctic - a classic +PNA signature. Any more on this will be beyond my pay grade!

 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[geordiekev]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I must admit my optimism has waned as the day has progressed. From past experience, relying on a pacific high ridging in and becoming an Arctic high and then pinning our hopes on this bringing the goods to our shores is a total outsider. It seems to me that the end result is almost a west based nao. A limpet low stuck to the uk again. We seem to be a magnet to them.

But surely an Arctic high would help push the jet stream further south and at this time of year would open more doors than it would close. Beyond that is FI, so I wouldn't be pinning on anything but change

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, Blizzards18 said:

But surely an Arctic high would help push the jet stream further south and at this time of year would open more doors than it would close. Beyond that is FI, so I wouldn't be pinning on anything but change

I'm not saying the Arctic high is bad. However going on past experience,  more often than not, it just doesn't seem inclined to make that last leap towards us unfortunately. Who knows, maybe this time it can but I am not hopeful. 

[Nick F]

Plenty of wintry interest for our Scottish contingent Boxing Day onwards from 18z GFS, with cold polar air bringing snow showers packing in behind that deepening low clearing out into the North Sea early Tuesday - though could be blizzards over the hills with the northwesterly gale. Then next low pressure system moving in from the west on Wednesday could bring further snow to Scotland as frontal system bumps into cold air here. However, differences quickly increase between GFS and EC on timing, depth and track of these lows Boxing Day onwards, so too early to make any worthwhile predictions of where and when it may snow let alone snow depth charts from EC!

 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Nick F

[Guest]

Please refer to my post just above:

     

I kept posting the first chart which is dated Dec 20th and saved it in the usual way but when I pressed copy image address, the chart reverted back to Dec 19th. Has anyone else had this problem?  It seems okay now (or is it? - no it's still misbehaving). Maybe NOAA had just published the update and for some reason it takes a while to bed in?

Anyway the final chart is an alternative version. The 14 day forecast should be for Dec 20th and is at the bottom. One can only keep trying!!! 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Please refer to my post just above:

           

I kept posting the first chart which is dated Dec 20th and saved it in the usual way but when I pressed copy image address, the chart reverted back to Dec 19th. Has anyone else had this problem?  It seems okay now - I hope. maybe NOAA had just published the update and for some reason it takes a few minutes to bed in?

Anyway the second chart is an alternative version. The 14 day forecast should be for Dec 20th and is at the bottom. One can only keep trying!!! 

It's a conspiracy I tell ya! Thanks for posting those bb62/63.

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM ens really not good at all, GFS ensembles - the odd good one - haven't been through with a fine comb though - P7 is the pick.

[Nick F]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm not saying the Arctic high is bad. However going on past experience,  more often than not, it just doesn't seem inclined to make that last leap towards us unfortunately. Who knows, maybe this time it can but I am not hopeful. 

I think the problem is that without some meaningful amplification in the polar front jet across the N Atlantic to join the cross polar ridging moving south into Greenland, the strong zonal 200mph jet stream will carry on regardless, albeit in a more supressed southerly track into Europe. That's until the Greenland height rises fade, which brings me on the other issue that the ensembles eventually dampen and shrink back the anomalous -EPO ridging building into the arctic. This could be because the ridge has built so far north that it has allowed troughing to undercut over the EPO region and the N PAC jet to extend into Wern U.S./W Canada cutting off the WAA north across Alaska which maintains the -EPO ridge. But it may return to full strength after temporary relaxation.

Still, the southerly tracking jet will at least mean we will be increasingly on the cold polar side of the jet through next week, with snow likely for the usual suspects of cold zonality up north, but maybe a few snow surprises thrown in elsewhere. But we can't get any sustained wintry weather out of such a pattern in our maritime climate without blocking lending a hand.

Edited December 20, 2017 by Nick F

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ens really not good at all, GFS ensembles - the odd good one - haven't been through with a fine comb though - P7 is the pick.

Yes, the ecm ens have been bad for the last couple of days now which is worrying. We can only hope for a flip in the morning. 

[damianslaw]

Mmm its that christmas feel at the moment - christmas day now in the reliable, and yes for the seventh year in a row, a predominantly mild outlook for the run in to christmas - and very uninspriring fayre to boost - pity we can't be where we were two weeks ago - its a cruel undertaking this year it feels..

Lackclustre is the word.

I am going to refrain from model watching for a few days - enjoy christmas and come back in the run in to new year - hopefully the models will show some wintry fayre. Hoping  2018 can deliver a cold snowy spell to greet the new year, seven years of mild muck is too much - merry christmas!

Edited December 20, 2017 by damianslaw

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think the problem is that without some meaningful amplification in the polar front jet across the N Atlantic to join the cross polar ridging moving south into Greenland, the strong zonal 200mph jet stream will carry on regardless, albeit in a more supressed southerly track into Europe. That's until the Greenland height rises fade, which brings me on the other issue that the ensembles eventually dampen and shrink back the anomalous -EPO ridging building into the arctic. This could be because the ridge has built so far north that it has allowed troughing to undercut over the EPO region and the N PAC jet to extend into Wern U.S./W Canada cutting off the WAA north across Alaska which maintains the -EPO ridge. But it may return to full strength after temporary relaxation.

Still, the southerly tracking jet will at least mean we will be increasingly on the cold polar side of the jet through next week, with snow likely for the usual suspects of cold zonality, but maybe a few snow surprise thrown in elsewhere. But we can't get any sustained wintry weather out of such a pattern in our maritime climate without blocking lending a hand.

I agree. If only we had the amplification in the north Atlantic, dare I say we could be talking about a boxing day 1962 scenario. We can dream!