Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[Seasonality]

5 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

At least SANTA emptied his sack the day before ' God bless him x

The poor man would have been in all kinds of trouble if that came when his sack was full. Some interest in the latter stage of the ECM and following a similar theme to what others have been showing. An attempt to split the vortex. I wouldn't bet against some interesting cold scenarios appearing soon.

[northwestsnow]

EC is another improvement overnight IMHO

The race is on at day 10- we need the PV sat over scandy to be first to the UK!! 

GFS, erm, thanks, but no thanks ...

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is a bit calmer for boxing day with a ridge of higher pressure ahead of the next low waiting in the wings

[SLEETY]

The t144 on the ukmo looks like a Northerly would develop afterwards.Dont know why people are so surprised the bbc are forecasting Northerly winds just after Xmas looking at current output.

[knocker]

There is no evidence that I can see to indicate that the suggested forthcoming displacement, in the medium term, of the trop vortex over northern Canada is anything other than temporary and it is quickly back in place on the ext EPS with the Alaskan ridge perhaps reorienting and nudging west towards Siberia.

Edited December 19, 2017 by knocker

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

There is no evidence that I can see to indicate that the suggested forthcoming displacement, in the medium term, of the trop vortex is anything other than temporary and it is quickly back in place on the ext EPS with the Alaskan ridge perhaps reorienting and nudging west towards Siberia.

It does look pretty climatological Nina knocks - perhaps a bit too straightforward on the mean. Of course, if the op is sniffing a direction of travel then all bets on that mean are probably off ........

for the time being, I wouldnt back the op against the vast majority of 49 ens runs @ 14km resolution! 

(I say 49 because the control is similar over the pole to the op )

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It does look pretty climatological Nina knocks - perhaps a bit too straightforward on the mean. Of course, if the op is sniffing a direction of travel then all bets on that mean are probably off ........

for the time being, I wouldnt back the op against the vast majority of 49 ens runs @ 14km resolution! 

(I say 49 because the control is similar over the pole to the op )

Its probably academic at day 10 but can i ask what you make of EC day 10

Could that wedge of heights over Greenland assist in forcing the jet south? Or would we see the az high ridging into Europe and everything flattening out thereatfer..

[Scandinavian High.]

Very cold here winter wonderland in the south east this morning this is not mild to me. Maybe some unsettled weather come wet and windy but not long lasting then back to blocked pattern then a more cold dry outlook 

Edited December 19, 2017 by abbie123

[johnholmes]

I don't think there is much doubt now about a windy spell over Christmas, especially into Boxing Day and beyond. Having compared 00 and 12 runs over the past 4 days they are both trending towards this idea. The depth and position of the main low will slowly become more clear over the next 2-3 days. A Polar Maritime airstream becoming established and veering Westerly with time. Snow for the higher parts from Wales northwards, possibly to low levels in the far north. Possibly sleety type showers elsewhere and becoming very windy for a time. Probably a short lived NW flow following.

The 00z GFS gives the general idea and EC up to Boxing Day is along similar lines.

[karlos1983]

GFS and ECM completely different at D7. GFS wants to bomb us with a very deep low, with a big dollop of the PV to our north and the ECM not really interested in either of those ideas. I know which one my money is on. ECM looks far more plausible to me, especially with those heights digging into the arctic from the other side of the NH. 

[nick sussex]

"Fasten your seat belts its going to be a bumpy night" ! A line from one of the great black and white films of the past All About Eve but could sum up the current rollercoaster.

Or you could have " get ready for a surprise"! probably younger people might remember that from Total Recall!

Anyway you know somethings stirring when my film analogies start popping up.

Its hard to have too much faith in the NWP when the ECM goes from this, yesterdays 00hrs run to T240hrs

To todays 00hrs run to T216hrs

What we are seeing in the earlier timeframe is UFS Upstream Flow Separation! We're trying to separate low pressure near the UK from upstream low heights. Both the ECM and GFS are now trying to do this which is in contrast to recent days and gives a better chance of the pattern edging further se.

Of course the ECM like Baby Jane Hudson is getting all the attention today. For those watching the wonderful The Feud Bette V Joan, camp, delicious and a throwback to the era when Hollywood stars had a certain mystique and weren't like many of the current crop talentless wannabees!

Anyway you might think you've entered some alternate universe with my film come model related ramblings today!

To sum up there looks to be a lot going on in the background which is resulting in todays wild swings. It could be that the MJO isn't happy with being a bit part player and z list celebrity and wants to move from daytime television to something with a bit more gravitas.

Yesterdays MJO update suggested it might not have that much impact on proceedings till it gets to the Indian Ocean, it could also be that as NCEP suggested the models are having a problem with the signal because of some extra goings on in the Pacific.

All will be revealed in subsequent runs!

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2017 by nick sussex

[carinthian]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

"Fasten your seat belts its going to be a bumpy night" ! A line from one of the great black and white films of the past All About Eve but could sum up the current rollercoaster.

Or you could have " get ready for a surprise"! probably younger people might remember that from Total Recall!

Anyway you know somethings stirring when my film analogies start popping up.

Its hard to have too much faith in the NWP when the ECM goes from this, yesterdays 00hrs run to T240hrs

To todays 00hrs run to T216hrs

What we are seeing in the earlier timeframe is UFS Upstream Flow Separation! We're trying to separate low pressure near the UK from upstream low heights. Both the ECM and GFS are now trying to do this which is in contrast to recent days and gives a better chance of the pattern edging further se.

Of course the ECM like Baby Jane Hudson is getting all the attention today. For those watching the wonderful The Feud Bette V Joan, camp, delicious and a throwback to the era when Hollywood stars had a certain mystique and weren't like many of the current crop talentless wannabees!

Anyway you might think you've entered some alternate universe with my film come model related ramblings today!

To sum up there looks to be a lot going on in the background which is resulting in todays wild swings. It could be that the MJO isn't happy with being a bit part player and z list celebrity and wants to move from daytime television to something with a bit more gravitas.

Yesterdays MJO update suggested it might not have that much impact on proceedings till it gets to the Indian Ocean, it could also be that as NCEP suggested the models are having a problem with the signal because of some extra goings on in the Pacific.

All will be revealed in subsequent runs!

 

 

 

That's what I call analysis and observation in an amusing way.Clever stuff !

 C

C

[Nick B]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Its probably academic at day 10 but can i ask what you make of EC day 10

Could that wedge of heights over Greenland assist in forcing the jet south? Or would we see the az high ridging into Europe and everything flattening out thereatfer..

I'm not blue, obviously, but if that pattern were to verify, here's how I would see it play out...

That Azores HP is (from that point, I stress) looking to push into Europe.  It does not appear to be a retrogressing pattern - there is too much energy coming off the east coast of North America..  However, with a little MJO help, the jet may yet soon afterwards (3-4 days perhaps) buckle underneath into Iberia and allow the HP to build into Scandinavia from that point, while the lobe of PV sitting over Siberia progresses just a little to the east (it may retrogress later with enough jet buckling).  With a strengthening Arctic high and a buckling jet assisting by sending energy into the Med, a significant cold pool is then able to flow down through Scandinavia and build into E/NE Europe.

That is the only route to a lengthy cold spell I see currently (from that scenario!), apart from transient coldish shots from the W/NW.

Edited December 19, 2017 by Nick B
don't seem to know my east from west

[blizzard81]

32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS and ECM completely different at D7. GFS wants to bomb us with a very deep low, with a big dollop of the PV to our north and the ECM not really interested in either of those ideas. I know which one my money is on. ECM looks far more plausible to me, especially with those heights digging into the arctic from the other side of the NH. 

We have got to hope the ecm op is on to something here. The Pacific ridge will be difficult to forecast but the changes are in the relatively short time frame. This is good news as we will not have long to wait before we know the true direction. 

[carinthian]

Well there we have it. I think the UKMO output will look like the latest run from NAVGEM at mid- day Boxing Day. The cold front on Christmas Day slowing sinks into Southern Britain and starts its return back as a warm front on Boxing Day.  However, the process back into mild is not without interest as the chart below shows the upper cold getting in place again to the North and East. Could see some really interesting developments in the period to the end of the year.

 C

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We have got to hope the ecm op is on to something here. The Pacific ridge will be difficult to forecast but the changes are in the relatively short time frame. This is good news as we will not have long to wait before we know the true direction. 

Yes agreed we shouldn’t have to wait to long. Looking at the GFS, UKMO and ECM at +144, the GFS really does look the odd one out in terms of the amount of energy in the PV lobe to our northeast. I’d say it would be difficult for the UKMO to resemble the GFS 168 chart as it is more Akin to the ECM at the same time frame with the PV lobe and the heights pushing into the Arctic.

Edited December 19, 2017 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Its probably academic at day 10 but can i ask what you make of EC day 10

Could that wedge of heights over Greenland assist in forcing the jet south? Or would we see the az high ridging into Europe and everything flattening out thereatfer..

You’re right NWS - too academic for analysis 

The Atlantic profile will be different as there is a further push of WAA from the pacific

 lets get the detail on any polar amplification to day 5/6 first as they have a habit of not counting down very well ! 

[Seasonality]

I think GFS is going for the split again. Return of the Alaskan ridge.

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 6z a little more ECMish wrt polar profile at 168.

[tight isobar]

The massive question???

Can we see waa digging in @greenland on further runs???

I think we may!?...

Then the fun and games get unfolding.....!!!

[joggs]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The massive question???

Can we see waa digging in @greenland on further runs???

I think we may!?...

Then the fun and games get unfolding.....!!!

We could do with a slither of higher pressure slicing up in between the two PV lobes to separate them(bottom frame).

Is it out of the question on future runs?!?!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think this thread might be livelier than expected.  Not for big freeze but some very stormy and active weather which may well have enough cold involved for wintryness too

Of interest yesterday saw the 100th spotless day this year and we haven’t reached minimum yet, not anticipated until 2019/20 so the only way is down.

I am very keen on this Xmas period, in the winter hopes thread on 7th Dec I mentioned anticipated strong solar wind hit around 22nd.  Well today we have Earth facing Coronal hole with strong solar winds anticipated to arrive 21/22nd bang on cue (info courtesy of space weather).  Let’s see what develops from here.  My thoughts on this are jetstream effects (meandering more/ southward shift) and increase in depth/strength of LPs.

 

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Very unusual!!!

We begin to tap into fridgid american air!!!

I think this is what m-ventrice has been aluding to-of late...

Regarding-nw-europe...and the such unsual aspects of such..... synoptics' and evolvement.

Edit:..

I can see a million and one way for a feasible/decent route to cold emerging....going into the new year.

Re-edit ok maybe not that many(million+1)..

But you get the gist...??

Edited December 19, 2017 by tight isobar

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters - close to an Arctic led split through Greenland at T168

but energy coming off Canada just about stops it between T192/T216

  

 

 

[jonboy]

Brutal cold over much of the USA anticipated in 7 days time I wonder what effect this may have down the road for us