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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

he must be

I see t2m up to 12C in the Netherlands, whereas Los Angeles sees - 8 (their record low is - 3 Jan 4th 1949)

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I see t2m up to 12C in the Netherlands, whereas Los Angeles sees - 8 (their record low is - 3 Jan 4th 1949)

You clearly need to do some Geography lessons.

B4C2B8FF-98FE-4133-8798-303E7F6B4D3E.thumb.png.3353be173f6207622cccbc4b2c6e94bf.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

I see t2m up to 12C in the Netherlands, whereas Los Angeles sees - 8 (their record low is - 3 Jan 4th 1949)

But I don't see any 12C in the Netherlands in that timeframe?

 

gfs-9-324.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

You clearly need to do some Geography lessons.

B4C2B8FF-98FE-4133-8798-303E7F6B4D3E.thumb.png.3353be173f6207622cccbc4b2c6e94bf.png

To be fair, his location is the Netherlands so no problems with geography. @ArHu3 are you looking at the same chart?

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

But I don't see any 12C in the Netherlands in that timeframe?

 

gfs-9-324.png

The 27th @1300h?

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

An epic Arctic high on final few frames of GFS 12z surprised it’s not been commented on. It has had support in GEFS of the past not had a look at present, would herald extreme cold in parts of the NH.

4C968067-7F9C-492E-AD0A-260B253498CC.thumb.png.32720a8d624ddf80e6bf100c3de1d1e4.png

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
25 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Bitter cold all the way into California and even Mexico, quite impressive really but scorching hot in Europe 

 

10 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

The 27th @1300h?

You posted the first quote in response to a 1st Jan 0100h chart though, no wonder people are confused!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

An epic Arctic high on final few frames of GFS 12z surprised it’s not been commented on. It has had support in GEFS of the past not had a look at present, would herald extreme cold in parts of the NH.

4C968067-7F9C-492E-AD0A-260B253498CC.thumb.png.32720a8d624ddf80e6bf100c3de1d1e4.png

No support on the latest set unfortunately , all still looking fairly mobile as per the last few days runs!!??

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No support on the latest set unfortunately , all still looking fairly mobile as per the last few days runs!!??

What I’m seeing no sign of, in the extended range is blowtorch southwesterlies, many have a southerly tracking jet stream nothing really mild distinctly average. Point taken that’s out in the cosmos but not a bad mean. 

9E1E7941-AE79-4079-BB31-AA91875F4FC8.thumb.png.585c5347abbfc43bb0a8545f96f2bd46.png

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

2 years running GFS has gone for a major storm around the 25th/26th with 6 or 7 days remaining

2016

gfs-0-174.thumb.png.c56c18a67c3ba561a9d35d3dc73a4c51.png

2017

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.717d04f5b0b308ca5ae2d90cdcc48591.png

Last year it ended up going north of the UK avoiding a direct hit on the UK

gfs-0-6.thumb.png.a6c6cef622c9c23bf3d0786d1f005d1a.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What I’m seeing no sign of, in the extended range is blowtorch southwesterlies, many have a southerly tracking jet stream nothing really mild distinctly average. Point taken that’s out in the cosmos but not a bad mean. 

9E1E7941-AE79-4079-BB31-AA91875F4FC8.thumb.png.585c5347abbfc43bb0a8545f96f2bd46.png

its likely a much more reliable chart than the day 16 anomaly you posted !

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

its likely a much more reliable chart than the day 16 anomaly you posted !

Bit out of character but I guess so. :D 

Seems a bit of a model tedium is going on if you want to take a break the time is now, with Xmas coming up I’m sure what the NWP does will be least of folks concern. It’s always on my radar, god give me strength.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I wouldn't lose hope of something wintry on the 25th/26th because the GEFS 12z shows a mixture of colder and milder solutions in what looks like a very disturbed period of weather during next week.:):santa-emoji:..my attempt at positivity:D

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukmo144

 

 

Looks a bit slower than GFS in bringing in the north wester -the pacific ridge is more prominent on ukmet but i fear its not going to be of much use for the uk..

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Being as it’s the season to be jolly, sure be nice if we could be pleasant to one another.

anyway, gfs op was very nice to look at in its last few frames. Personally I’m quite hopeful for cold prospects as we head towards new year. 

1C4AC077-8AD4-44AE-8B7B-0A354AE8605E.thumb.png.8d802a03c083ed97a710f7d88c1baf71.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

There is scope already via ec12z..for spliting the vortex!!

As modeled.

Things a lot shallower in depth across the pole.. ..

And a link of features more possible..

@pac-ridge...russian forming!!

ECH1-96.gif

Screenshot_2017-12-18-18-16-50.png

Screenshot_2017-12-18-18-16-43.png

Edited by tight isobar
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

in thought we might see a bit of amplification at 96hrs

ECH1-96-1.thumb.gif.8c716cbe831fab7763dcebbedc456170.gif

but it was only a ?"part ridge on the EC"?.... ?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Azores displacing..in a good retreat...

As wonders.occur..@northern hemisphere.....

Cross polar heights incoming...??!!

Screenshot_2017-12-18-18-30-05.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS much better for christmas day -

EC nowhere near as progressive with the North wester.

ECH1-144.GIF?18-0

Euro high anyone :(

That aside looks good. Vortex draining away from Greenland is that a bit of amplification I see in the Atlantic?

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted

I make mistakes like the rest of us, but I can't see the entire cause for gloom at the moment. The GFS continues its slow and steady progress to a pattern shift around 25/12. The signs of that were showing in the ensembles a few days ago and have been picked up by the operationals. Today's 12z takes this on still further, with the PV wandering around the western shores. The ECM 12z is also far from flat and furious towards the latter stages.

I see and sense a transition around 26/12 which may build in momentum so that we begin to see some very exciting runs for the final week of the year, and I'm not simply referring to the Cairngorm ski centre.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That aside looks good. Vortex draining away from Greenland is that a bit of amplification I see in the Atlantic?

Dont think so mate-

Will be similar to the 00z run..

edit looks a bit better than the 00z run daniel :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS much better for christmas day -

EC nowhere near as progressive with the North wester.

ECH1-144.GIF?18-0

Euro high anyone :(

The long term prognosis look far better.

To many focus on a white xmas.

When you have more chance of having white while your kids go easter egg hunting...

Than opening xmas prezzies!!!

Into jan...begining to look very interesting. ?

Edited by tight isobar
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