Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[SMU]

Morning All

very poor few days of modelling - The strat outlook looks to have positive anomalies more dominant that originally expected leaving us in the All to familiar run of strong westerlies...

no change expected to the new year now..

Have a good Xmas.

S

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

very poor few days of modelling - The strat outlook looks to have positive anomalies more dominant that originally expected leaving us in the All to familiar run of strong westerlies...

no change expected to the new year now..

Have a good Xmas.

S

Have a nice christmas Steve-

Agree 100% with your post, its looking very bleak looking at all the data this morning- there really isn't any scope that i can see for a change- green christmas beckons for as far east as Poland/Ukraine- looking at EC two things are jumping out at me +NAO / Euro high.

 

 

[blizzard81]

As BA has pointed out, we need that pacific ridge to extend towards Greenland. 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have a nice christmas Steve-

Agree 100% with your post, its looking very bleak looking at all the data this morning- there really isn't any scope that i can see for a change- green christmas beckons for as far east as Poland/Ukraine- looking at EC two things are jumping out at me +NAO / Euro high.

 

 

Cheers

theres am outside chance of some snow Xmas day due to timings of a polar Northwesterly - that would Be more luck than anything !

[blizzard81]

Coldest run so far for the big day coming up on the gfs 06z

[ArHu3]

26 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's something I have been guilty of over the years too but anyone quoting the NAVGEM, BOM, CMA , NCMRWF or CPTEC should face the ban hammer!

 

 

BOM isn't that bad, some months it performed better than ecm for western Europ 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 6z showing why some could be premature' in writing off xmas period/new year...

The monster pc-ridge digging well into the pole.

And a few minor tweaks and greenland exactment can be acheived.

Also the pv alignment will undoubtedly be an instrument of play for this evolution...

I mentioned yesterday give it another 24hrs for operationals to gain some more decipher...

Todays runs could look a lot more promising-overal-...

Edited December 18, 2017 by tight isobar

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Coldest run so far for the big day coming up on the gfs 06z

Yes, jet seems to be edging further south. Not a bad trend if it continues.

[blizzard81]

Taking a leaf out of Mr Holmes book, if you compare like for like,  this morning's 06z to yesterday's run shows a huge improvement. The Pacific ridge is almost into Greenland on this run. 

[blizzard81]

One for BA - the pv is over the UK ha ha ? 

[blizzard81]

We need to be cautious here as it's the 06z run. Let's see what the ens look like. 

[Paul_1978]

Well well, surely there has got to be snow in this chart from the 06z T+222?

[Frosty.]

At least the period between christmas and New year looks interesting on the Gfs 6z with explosive cyclogenesis / weather bomb for boxing day and occasional polar maritime incursions bringing some transient wintry conditions across northern hills / mountains..much more interesting than the benign bore fest this week under generally high pressure.

Edited December 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

We need to be cautious here as it's the 06z run. Let's see what the ens look like. 

Indeed you took the words from my mouth....

However id expect some support.

'Given' the current/recent-previous data!!!

[Duane S.]

06z showing my preferred route out and why it is ridiculous to be writing off the end of December (even January from someone earlier!).

Getting the vortex east, not west, as the Pacific ridges down across and through GL. Batten down the hatches if this occurs though! Where is the propensity for the vortex to head thereafter though? Going into Lo res now so not to be taken too seriously.

I like this because there is less chance of locking the vortex in to our side of the NH this route which could happen, and has been shown previously, with the polar height increases to come.

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We need to be cautious here as it's the 06z run. Let's see what the ens look like. 

well lets throw caution to the wind...

because if the 06z is right, there'll be plenty of it!

[northwestsnow]

6z is a huge improvement but as posted by others above until EC in particular shows something similar i will refrain from ramping...

[tight isobar]

@jet profile...

Nigh-on perfect exactment rolling forwards....

And the placings look achevieable!!!

And why the met o- are in a state of unkown via mid/longer term prognosis....

Things ramping up!!!!

Edited December 18, 2017 by tight isobar

[Polar Maritime]

6z shows a cool/cold long winded slack North/NWly from the Christmas period onwards with the Jet buckling way South. Nothing extreme by any means.. But very seasonal with wintry showers especially for the North. Even Christmas day some folk could possibly see snow falling. Nothing mild in the outlook with temps avg sometimes just below.

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

6z shows a cool/cold long winded slack North/NWly from the Christmas period onwards with the Jet buckling way South. Nothing extreme by any means.. But very seasonal with wintry showers especially for the North. Even Christmas day some folk could possibly see snow falling. Nothing mild in the outlook with temps avg sometimes just below.

 

Good post:

We must remind ourselves of the significance of the forcing of the pc-ridge...timings/and vigor...

Could have +196 viewing even more favourable.

The ens...and 12z will be something to view today.....

Thats for sure!.

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

One for BA - the pv is over the UK ha ha ? 

At day 10 I wouldn’t disagree - certainly  across part of Scotland. Rather different in origin to yesterday - these low heights extending down from our northeast rather than crossing the Atlantic !

this run showing what is achievable if the big chunk is forced away from Canada by the extending ridge but it’s low res so questionable in the extreme !

 

[snowflakey]

19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Well well, surely there has got to be snow in this chart from the 06z T+222?

Looks like a very healthy Greenland High developing on that chart. 

[karlos1983]

25 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Well well, surely there has got to be snow in this chart from the 06z T+222?

Very nice indeed, Jet tracking way to our south over Iberia, fl but who cares.....

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by karlos1983

[SLEETY]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is a huge improvement but as posted by others above until EC in particular shows something similar i will refrain from ramping...

Yeah but putting your hope on gfs fl when it hits low resolution is not recommended ? ,still maybe the ECM will show something similar soon.

Edited December 18, 2017 by SLEETY

[bobbydog]

if these were music charts, the christmas number one would be...

Stormzy....