Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm not looking good  up to t168 either if your looking for cold weather to return anytime soon.

As a dry weather fan, not bad though, I am now looking for dry on the models

[Singularity]

 

Better Pacific ridge than GFS; sharper with more of a pull on the vortex back into N. America. 

In theory it should not end up as flat as GFS did. Potentially not even close, although that's probably pushing it for within the 10-day range.

[weathergeek]

27 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some of the more seasoned members on this forum will have noticed a trend over the years that is still very evident. The gfs ops  pick up the baton with a cold trend in the medium to long term but is not followed very keenly by the other models, especially the ecm. The gfs ops then drop the baton only for the ecm to pick it up. The result can be a big win for the cold after all. Just a little later than what the gfs was initially progging. 

I am a novice who is still learning to read charts but I mainly use this forum just to read updates through winter and have done for 6yrs now. I may have little understanding but this pattern of model trends you describe is something I very much recognise - it happens a lot!!

[A Frayed Knot]

[swfc]

Better ecm imo and also good call singularity. Hopefully the 12z gfs was a one off

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

I am a novice who is still learning to read charts but I mainly use this forum just to read updates through winter and have done for 6yrs now. I may have little understanding but this pattern of model trends you describe is something I very much recognise - it happens a lot!!

Yep, it's as if they take it in turns to tease. Let's just hope the teases turn into something more substantial for us! 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Just had a quick look at GEFS 12z for Porthcawl (nr Swansea) and nothing really has changed from the 6z. So still mild with a strong rise in pressure before falling quite a bit as we approach Christmas (wouldn't you know it? lol) when it looks set to become much wetter but temperatures could remain slightly above average throughout. 

[blizzard81]

The azores high gets flattened more easily on the ecm which can only be good news imo. 

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, Draig Goch said:

Just had a quick look at GEFS 12z for Porthcawl (nr Swansea) and nothing really has changed from the 6z. So still mild with a strong rise in pressure before falling quite a bit as we approach Christmas (wouldn't you know it? lol) when it looks set to become much wetter but temperatures could remain slightly above average throughout. 

The perfect time for a deluge. I'm feeling sorry for the usual areas already.

[feb1991blizzard]

The pacific ridge isn't getting far enough into the pole, it needs to get right into the pole to help keep the Canadian sector far enough west, hopefully then the Atlantic troughing will dig south and send WAA into the pole carving out a ridge and the link up between 2 ridges giving a cross polar flow like on some of those stonking ensembles yesterday which have now gone.

[blizzard81]

I have noticed some outlandish day 8 to day  9 transitions on past ecm runs but this one is up there with the best. A 1035 high over New Foundland at day 8 becomes a 985 low 24 hours later. Sorry but I think the ecm has been on the xmas booze train! 

[booferking]

 EC looks terrible at Day 10 to???Looks much the same maybe pacific ridge slightly better on EC than GFS time for a break from model this weekend me thinks.

Edited December 15, 2017 by booferking

[mulzy]

ECM better than GFS but still not great.  The Eastern Canada / Greenland segment of the PV is a massive pain in the backside for us coldies!

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

 EC looks terrible at Day 10 to???Looks much the same maybe pacific ridge slightly better on EC time for a break from model this weekend me thinks.

Looking through various/and supports..

Its quite dire..  lets not polish a turd here!!

[nick sussex]

Not quite the GFS horror show from the ECM and it was better upstream over the USA at T168hrs but then in rode a spoiler that stopped the limpet high pulling further west.

This also effects the subsequent sharpness downstream. Theres more room for improvement in the ECM than the GFS so a few crumbs of comfort for coldies on an otherwise disappointing evening.

 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

 EC looks terrible at Day 10 to???Looks much the same maybe pacific ridge slightly better on EC time for a break from model this weekend me thinks.

It’s not terrible but it’s not good either ECM is better quite markedly so for CONUS with strong ridging into Alaska - vortex looks like it carries less of a punch too. 

[Chesil View]

I really wouldn't put,to much faith in any output beyond 120 or so at the moment. The fab xmas charts of a day or so back got some  members into a bit of a lather but they have now disappeared.

I would draw members back to main thrust of the teleconnections posts from the likes of GP ,Tamara and Catacol and that has always been for something interesting to happen around the new year, so getting deflated because xmas now looks rather normal and westerly is to me at least a futile exercise. 

Edited December 15, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Scandinavian High.]

I think everyone got be patient was we really going in to sudden freeze I don't think so yes we are going into more mobile spell. As we go in to Christmas think we will start see a change dryer cooler  settled spell in the south and wetter windy further north and west.

Edited December 15, 2017 by abbie123

[booferking]

Just now, Daniel* said:

It’s not terrible but it’s not good either ECM is better quite markedly so for CONUS with strong ridging into Alaska - vortex looks like it carries less of a punch too. 

It is terrible and i did state above the ridge is better but as @tight isobar sums it up you cant polish a turd.

 

[blizzard81]

A big positive I take from tonight's ecm is that stonking pacific ridge. Nothing flat upstream coming from that set up. 

[nick sussex]

Quite an amazing temp gradient across the USA at T240hrs from 0c 850 to around -20 in the space of a couple of hundred miles.

 

[West is Best]

I take increasing comfort from the ensembles, many of whose members are cold to very cold. Plenty of encouragement still:

 

[blizzard81]

I've got a good feeling that we will see more colder ext ecm ensembles tonight ☺️ 

[comet]

34 minutes ago, comet said:

Could be in for a good tale end to the 12z ecm tonight. Will no of course in another 20mins.

Didn't quite go according to plan but the t240 chart shows a lot more promise going forward than the muck the gfs op produced. Amazing how the gefs can vary from raging positive AO and NAO to a tanking AO, NAO I suspect myself this is to do with the recent warming and geopotential heights that are working their way down from the mid strat into the lower strat and thicker denser troposphere and also rate and which they are likely to do this. Patience may be the key here although I would of thought that a cold pattern response to this would reveal itself by month end hopefully. This is not always the case though but I would rather hedge my bets on this than on the effects of the MJO which as we have seen in previous winters can be a red herring although if the atmosphere (QBO) etc is in a favourable state then the benefits of a strong MJO event can be very rewarding.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended showing little change with the high still over the UK some showers look possible mainly in the west for the majority it is shown to be dry and calm

Edited December 15, 2017 by Summer Sun