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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Daniel* said:

Not so sure I agree better than 06z undoubtedly - some Christmas goodies in there. 

3AB66468-33F6-48C6-A138-11E01EFB9776.thumb.png.f6ce82f1c4c9a146f67ac955c4e0db2b.pngEFE836EE-A358-4FCD-9D58-397D13ED8CC5.thumb.png.b1c34ba91504e5193a1ad5c1c49a3287.png3F1FD225-DC65-4B0D-917D-AD9EC5A7329D.thumb.png.6a70d6cd0ccd109ce7ba18cbb64fa992.png

 

Look how many now don't build any Scandinavian ridge compared to yesterday when most of them did.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look how many now don't build any Scandinavian ridge compared to yesterday when most of them did.

Are you sure? I think some folks version of events don’t add up it’s been the OP which has had the height rises there’s always been very limited support amongst GEFS as far as I know.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not so sure I agree better than 06z undoubtedly - some Christmas goodies in there. 

3AB66468-33F6-48C6-A138-11E01EFB9776.thumb.png.f6ce82f1c4c9a146f67ac955c4e0db2b.pngEFE836EE-A358-4FCD-9D58-397D13ED8CC5.thumb.png.b1c34ba91504e5193a1ad5c1c49a3287.png3F1FD225-DC65-4B0D-917D-AD9EC5A7329D.thumb.png.6a70d6cd0ccd109ce7ba18cbb64fa992.png

 

Some good old fashioned cherry picking going on here. Of 22 runs (including opp and control) only three or four are not zonal. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Wow what a horrendous 12z run the worst by a country mile so far this winter. Well the only way is up from there. The difference between that and the 06z run post t192 is laughable.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Some good old fashioned cherry picking going on here. Of 22 runs (including opp and control) only three or four are not zonal. 

It’s not quite cherry picking I feel coldies will appreciate it, I’m not snatching it from thin air. Just because something has very limited support does not make it necessarily wrong.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

NOAA seem to think the ECM is doing the best job in handling the MJO.

There were problems last week with suggestions the models were having difficulty in isolating the signal through all the background noise.

In terms of the typhoon mentioned earlier in the thread the Global Tropics Hazards outlook mentioned one near the Phillipines but normally if that's an issue for the MJO evolution its highlighted.

Multiple areas exist for possible TC formation during Week-1. The first is in association with a circulation near 9N/132E as of 6 UTC on 12 December, that is forecast to intensify and cross the Phillipines and enter the South China Sea over the next several days. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this system a medium chance of development prior to the forecast period, but confidence is high in the system forming overall. Another system may form between 131-141E and 4-9N late in Week-1, or between this area and the southern Phillipines early in Week-2, with moderate confidence for development. The track of this system is forecast to be similar to the preceding TC, although likely slightly to its south. Elsewhere during Week-1, TC development is possible over the South Pacific between Vanuatu and Samoa. This disturbance is forecast to track eastward and potentially skirt southern portions of Samoa and American Samoa. All of the aforementioned TC development areas are broadly consistent with the MJO tracking from Phase 7 into Phase 8.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not quite cherry picking I feel coldies will appreciate it, I’m not snatching it from thin air. Just because something has very limited support does not make it necessarily wrong.

 

And, going by one or two of yesterday's runs (plus myriad runs from previous winters) not all predictions come true, even when they're apparently supported by Uncle Tom Cobbley and all!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not quite cherry picking I feel coldies will appreciate it, I’m not snatching it from thin air. Just because something has very limited support does not make it necessarily wrong.

 

No, there were the majority of members sending vertical advection into the pole - it wouldn't manifest itself in graph form because the evolution was late in the run, it would have done if the run had gone further, maybe not ridiculously so because there wasn't fantastic cold pooling to be tapped into.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

We are realistically looking at a 3 week mildish spell i feel and possibly stormy too at times, this would tie in nicely with iapenell's long range forecast, sounds like winter is over, until you read what he expects in January and February.:cold::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No, there were the majority of members sending vertical advection into the pole - it wouldn't manifest itself in graph form because the evolution was late in the run, it would have done if the run had gone further, maybe not ridiculously so because there wasn't fantastic cold pooling to be tapped into.

Does that mean 11 (if so I don't believe that) or do you mean the majority cluster (which could be five?)

little point in trying to take much from the current nwp - there is a lack of consistency apart from the fact it becomes more mobile and flatter for a time on our side of the NH

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, there were the majority of members sending vertical advection into the pole - it wouldn't manifest itself in graph form because the evolution was late in the run, it would have done if the run had gone further, maybe not ridiculously so because there wasn't fantastic cold pooling to be tapped into.

I see I feel some need to step away from the models, hysteria is setting in evident below. It’s always best to not go run by run it is more useful comparing 12z of today with tomorrow for instance.

CAFD4E89-00E7-4B8D-BEEA-DA6F8685513A.thumb.png.30dd3abe5ed6e29ef2bedf471a00ef57.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
19 minutes ago, comet said:

Wow what a horrendous 12z run the worst by a country mile so far this winter. Well the only way is up from there. The difference between that and the 06z run post t192 is laughable.

It is equally laughable that anybody pays much attention to the modelling at t+11,520 minutes down the line. The GFS is rarely trusted by a number of the professional forecasters on here and elsewhere. Inter and intra-run changes are most noticeable where the divergences are greatest, ie. so I suggest somewhere around D7 to D9, the first noticeable changes will start to take affect by then. As per that eluded to by Daniel in his post above and I feel this change in direction will come from a retrogressing High much further North than currently modelled. The breakdown will come from Northern parts and there will hopefully be a wintry feel to things once again by Boxing Day and beyond.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NOAA seem to think the ECM is doing the best job in handling the MJO.

There were problems last week with suggestions the models were having difficulty in isolating the signal through all the background noise.

In terms of the typhoon mentioned earlier in the thread the Global Tropics Hazards outlook mentioned one near the Phillipines but normally if that's an issue for the MJO evolution its highlighted.

Multiple areas exist for possible TC formation during Week-1. The first is in association with a circulation near 9N/132E as of 6 UTC on 12 December, that is forecast to intensify and cross the Phillipines and enter the South China Sea over the next several days. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this system a medium chance of development prior to the forecast period, but confidence is high in the system forming overall. Another system may form between 131-141E and 4-9N late in Week-1, or between this area and the southern Phillipines early in Week-2, with moderate confidence for development. The track of this system is forecast to be similar to the preceding TC, although likely slightly to its south. Elsewhere during Week-1, TC development is possible over the South Pacific between Vanuatu and Samoa. This disturbance is forecast to track eastward and potentially skirt southern portions of Samoa and American Samoa. All of the aforementioned TC development areas are broadly consistent with the MJO tracking from Phase 7 into Phase 8.

Where does that leave the output and outlook nick .sorry to put you on the spot!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Does that mean 11 (if so I don't believe that) or do you mean the majority cluster (which could be five?)

little point in trying to take much from the current nwp - there is a lack of consistency apart from the fact it becomes more mobile and flatter for a time on our side of the NH

It was somewhere near it.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I see I feel some need to step away from the models, hysteria is setting in evident below. It’s always best to not go run by run it is more useful comparing 12z of today with tomorrow for instance.

CAFD4E89-00E7-4B8D-BEEA-DA6F8685513A.thumb.png.30dd3abe5ed6e29ef2bedf471a00ef57.png

 

Ive just compared the 12z ens suite today with that of yesterday - and its a heck of a lot worse!  -   Anyway not sure what that tweets got to do with me.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Edit...

Ec coming out now...

Hopefully it will revert back to yesterdays 12z which was more amplified..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Ive just compared the 12z ens suite today with that of yesterday - and its a heck of a lot worse!  -   Anyway not sure what that tweets got to do with me.

Not directed at you but more widely we all know things can change very abruptly. Yet folk still fret over a shoddy day of model output what we may be seeing is a more extended +NAO phase but thereafter hugely uncertain.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Ive just compared the 12z ens suite today with that of yesterday - and its a heck of a lot worse!  -   Anyway not sure what that tweets got to do with me.

Indeed, I think Ice Man covered the outlook for the next couple of weeks nicely in his post :-). Beyond that, who knows what will happen.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Some of the more seasoned members on this forum will have noticed a trend over the years that is still very evident. The gfs ops  pick up the baton with a cold trend in the medium to long term but is not followed very keenly by the other models, especially the ecm. The gfs ops then drop the baton only for the ecm to pick it up. The result can be a big win for the cold after all. Just a little later than what the gfs was initially progging. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Where does that leave the output and outlook nick .sorry to put you on the spot!!!!

Well so far not great today as the pattern has flattened out since yesterday and its going to be a struggle unless we get more upstream amplification before the PV gets pushed se.

Todays MJO forecasts differ, the ECM is the quickest to move into phase 7, the GFS has started meandering in phase 6 before going into phase 7.

I'm not sure whether that's why we're seeing the GFS now toning down the amplitude and also whether we're once again seeing a conflict in terms of whether the models are picking up the wrong MJO as they were last week.

The MJO is of course only one piece of the puzzle. Lets see what the ECM does and see where we go from there.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some of the more seasoned members on this forum will have noticed a trend over the years that is still very evident. The gfs ops  pick up the baton with a cold trend in the medium to long term but is not followed very keenly by the other models, especially the ecm. The gfs ops then drop the baton only for the ecm to pick it up. The result can be a big win for the cold after all. Just a little later than what the gfs was initially progging. 

Yes it virtually always happens. A lots going on it’s no surprise the models are struggling and wildly swinging ala GFS let’s hope ECM gives us something good but I suspect it won’t. :laugh:

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