Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the NH  profile later on, I would say this gfs op is for the bin after day 10

Hope so BA because the output post day 10 (and pre 10 day too!) is simply awful!.

GEM day 10 not great either!

 

I thought this morning's runs were poor!

 

[stewfox]

59 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

                                                    

                                    

Phew, I'm not going to this again!  Not only is it very tricky, it's also difficult for me to read the charts and comment on them afterwards, especially with this new rule of a maximum edit time of only 5 minutes.

 

A great post I vote we allow more edit time  

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Sad to see latest GFS runs dropping any thoughts of amplification. Between Christmas and New Year now showing full throttle Atlantic zonal.  Just watched  BBC World News Weather , the forecaster gleefully saying its going to be a very mild run up to Christmas after this  weekends cold is taken away. Miserable !

 C

They should be fired!

Theres too many mild rampers on the tv and they think everyone loves mild crud over the festive season. Unfortunately its not looking good but coldies  believe in miracles!

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The SS Save Christmas has hit rocks and is fast taking on water.

Its been all downhill since yesterdays 12hrs runs with the pattern flatter and the phasing of shortwave energy with the upstream low making things even more difficult.

The limpet high can't retrogress as shortwave energy blocks its path. Save Christmas has collapsed from 4/10 to 2/10.

We need to see the rot stopped asap !

Looking at the output so far, I think we have to abandon the Christmas ship and hope for a better new Year.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the NH  profile later on, I would say this gfs op is for the bin after day 10

you would think so and the way it just gets rid of the Pacific ridge - you would definitely hope so - there were some ensembles similar in the 6z suite so it was always going to throw out a duff run at some stage.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

We even have the mighty black hole anomaly ......Unfortunately it's blue

 

Look at all that lovely blocking at northern latitudes!! And the one segment of vortex EXACTLY were we dont want it.

 

[Methuselah]

Neither more nor less plausible than the runs that showed a stonking great Beast from the East...? We can hardly be judging models on how much snow (I mean potential) they seem to promise...

[Daniel*]

I’m trying to find some positives desperate measures JMA at D10 has a wave of amplification coming off eastern seaboard but the purple beast is full of vigour and one scary sight perhaps overstated.  

 

[swfc]

Hmmm not a pretty picture painted there on the 12z altho it cant be ignored any more than a great run showing good blocking ete.does seem a big jump from 48hrs ago ete tbh.trends or background signals into jan that pv does look ominous for now! !!!

[Weathizard]

As usual a raging PV over Greenland is a complete winter killer for us, obviously it's only December but the longer we see this strengthening the longer the agony will continue.

We have all seen this before that's the issue, we reassure ourselves that it's only Decembers plenty of time! But that vortex has killed so many winters.

Not much to say on the 12's having looked through... some amplification in the mid range but whilst that PV is there spewing energy out it kills it, it always bloody ends up in the worst possible place for us! And for us snow starved southerners it's getting more annoying

Edited December 15, 2017 by Weathizard

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Neither more nor less plausible than the runs that showed a stonking great Beast from the East...? We can hardly be judging models on how much snow (I mean potential) they seem to promise...

I’m judging based on its agreement with the x model ens guidance, not coldie potential 

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They should be fired!

Theres too many mild rampers on the tv and they think everyone loves mild crud over the festive season. Unfortunately its not looking good but coldies  believe in miracles!

Yes Nick , he smiled and was pleased to kill off any thoughts of festive snow , deep crisp and even ! However, we can still hope for another flip in fortunes  as the models have changed very quickly from mild to cold so far this winter season. We will keep a good covering of snow here for the holiday as the mildest air is likely over Southern Britain and Northern France. Wonder is ECM will now reverse fro earlier models, usually do when GFS backs out of what is being showing for the previous 2 days.

 C

Edited December 15, 2017 by carinthian

[joggs]

Don't get too downbeat peeps. There's still the decent background signs to come to fruition in a couple of weeks ect. I can't can't see it been a winter of mild zonal stuff from here on in.

Relax expectations and expect a green xmas and take it from there......you never know. It's been a weird one so far 're the models flipping about.

Edited December 15, 2017 by joggs

[Daniel*]

Medium range the GEFS look better than 06z mean T850 temps reach 0C on 23rd in London could be fairly brief however some stay colder, Xmas day itself I don’t feel it’s destined to be mild and drizzly..

Edited December 15, 2017 by Daniel*

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes Nick , he smiled and was pleased to kill off any thoughts of festive snow , deep crisp and even ! However, we can still hope for another flip in fortunes  as the models have changed very quickly from mild to cold so far this winter season. We will keep a good covering of snow here for the holiday as the mildest air is likely over Southern Britain and Northern France. Wonder is ECM will now reverse fro earlier models, usually do when GFS backs out of what is being showing for the previous 2 days.

 C

Lets hope the ECM can deliver something better as its been a poor start to the evening. In terms of the ski resorts its the total opposite of last Christmas with new snow and then some dry cool weather.

Should be some great ski conditions once this unsettled spell clears.

[Ice Man 85]

GEFS 12z Mean less dreadful than the OP run. I nearly vomited when I saw 15c showing up!

[bobbydog]

ok, its not looking great for xmas but going forward, maybe the 12z GFS isn't such a bad run. the concern is getting out of a zonal rut. "how do we get amplification out of that?" we may well ask. well maybe its wishful thinking and i am trying to give hope to coldies but it has happened before- with dramatic consequences. 

in a certain famous winter, on the 14th of december, this was the state of the northern hemisphere-

a few days later, it looked like this-

now on tonights GFS, it predicts this for the 24th-

then a few days later, we are possibly facing this-

see the similarities?

now i'm not saying things will pan out the same, the purpose of this post is to show that the 'zonal rut' is not immovable and that amplification can seemingly come out of nowhere.

less than a week after that second chart i posted, came the great winter of 62/63...

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS not great I'm afraid, increasingly becoming zonal run by run.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS not great I'm afraid, increasingly becoming zonal run by run.

At this point I'd take average temps. Even that might be a stretch.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS not great I'm afraid, increasingly becoming zonal run by run.

Any idea why the flip feb if there is one? This morning it was look east;north east, north west.very big change in direction very quickly!!!

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS not great I'm afraid, increasingly becoming zonal run by run.

Absolutely shocking GEFS.

So whats the latest spanner in the works?

MJO favourable

Low solar activity

EQbo

Low zonal winds

Maybe someone let rip in a dingy in the indian ocean lol.

You gota laff or you'll cry...

Edited December 15, 2017 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

At this point I'd take average temps. Even that might be a stretch.

I don't mind the southerlies that were being modelled a few days ago - because that was helping to build a Scandinavian ridge ready for January, I'm more bothered about the long term, this xmas stuff was never going to materialise, anyway as said before, I would rather have a Jan 87 event in rush hour on a Wednesday morning in January for maximum impact, it would be somewhat wasted on xmas day although I would take it like a shot still.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS not great I'm afraid, increasingly becoming zonal run by run.

Not so sure I agree better than 06z undoubtedly - some Christmas goodies in there. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Any idea why the flip feb if there is one? This morning it was look east;north east, north west.very big change in direction very quickly!!!

Don't know - I'm hoping its just a timing issue and the signal returns over next few days.

[joggs]

Who's to say the models can't flip back again in a day or two?.

They're only fed information and come up with runs.They don't control the weather lol.