Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[bluearmy]

Still thinking that the general feel of that 00z op gfs isn’t far from where we should be expecting week 2 to be going 

the uber amplified gfs ops we have seen on occasion recently are surely almost implausible given the upstream pattern with that Canadian vortex pushing a bit closer to Greenland and aiming full square at nw Europe. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Less amplified 06Z which isn't surprising.

Yes scotland gets a waft of -5 uppers for about 12 hours lol.

As you say gfs looks less amplified - shame we came very close to something really good around the 120 mark but yet again the vortex spewing its ugly energy towards Southern Greenland it flattens everything out.

 

[bluearmy]

One thing which is consistent from gfs evolution is that the Atlantic and Pacific amplifications are ying and yang

if the Pacific ridge into Alaska is less sharp then the Atlantic is more ridgy and vica versa 

Of course that could end up as a win win and perhaps the less amplified solution for us is a better scenario longer term .....

[northwestsnow]

Still looks better than EC to me - esp the profile way to the NE

[northwestsnow]

6z looks to bring a white christmas for much of Europe with cold air spreading south across much of the continent ..

[Methuselah]

I've narrowed down the Christmas weather: it'll be mild or cold and it'll be wet or dry...?

[tight isobar]

Has to be said gfs backing away now...

Any cold notable or otherwise looking to be into the new year!!!..

Mobile/pm flow at best!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Has to be said gfs backing away now...

Any cold notable or otherwise looking to be into the new year!!!..

Mobile/pm flow at best!!!

Agreed- less said about 6z the better.

Looking increasingly likely a spell of Atlantic weather is coming around chrimbo and beyond..

[swfc]

Looking very flat from the 198 hr mark on the 6z gfs.tbh very similar to ecm.one run tho and plenty of weather to get threw before its resolved

Edited December 15, 2017 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

6Z looks excellent for Germany Poland and even further SE into the balkans perhaps Greece as the +NAO sets up..

[feb1991blizzard]

All tikety boo on 6z - trough starting to dig at 228, ridge going to be carved out to the NE again.

[booferking]

There was a barrier erected on Greenland's coast line several years back so that would explain why we never see these heights smash through beyond the coastline i heard this in the grapevine the other day.

[tight isobar]

Paints an all to familiar story for uk cold...

The triangle of nothingness!!..

Whike huge swathes of europe enter tge freezer!!!!..#typical..

Don' t throw it in yet..still have 12z for gain...though comparable synotics would have to be taken by then!!!

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All tikety boo on 6z - trough starting to dig at 228, ridge going to be carved out to the NE again.

well its all about opinons- i cant see it happening Feb but i would be delighted if your right

[TEITS]

E,ly inbound later on in this run!

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All tikety boo on 6z - trough starting to dig at 228, ridge going to be carved out to the NE again.

Yea i can see that happening look at the jet..

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well its all about opinons- i cant see it happening Feb but i would be delighted if your right

WAA into the Polar regions by 276.- Its coming!

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters, as I suspected, quite ridgy by the 22nd December, let's not forget this is a pretty monumental turn-around from three days ago:

Most clusters collapse the ridge by 24th December - but hello Cluster 2, is that a possible slider low into cold air?

The theme I've been noticing for late December still seems to be there - potentially quite stormy (deep purples near the UK). 

No interest in NE heights once again except maybe cluster 3.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Marcus71]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Has to be said gfs backing away now...

Any cold notable or otherwise looking to be into the new year!!!..

Mobile/pm flow at best!!!

Could you please explain. This run at 240h is laughably different to the previous (the high has moved at least 500 miles) and yet you write off all the time till Jan. I am confused....

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Has to be said gfs backing away now...

Any cold notable or otherwise looking to be into the new year!!!..

Mobile/pm flow at best!!!

17 days till new year think about that for a moment. One expects to see these rise and falls before hopefully seeing some consolidation of a cold theme touch wood.

I await to see GEFS my bet there are some corkers albeit limited in number. 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WAA into the Polar regions by 276.- Its coming!

It looks that way . Unfortunately its at 300 hour's!!!and be gone as quickly as the oz run

[northwestsnow]

6Z just looks very very wet - no easterly that i can see...

[booferking]

Bin 6z and on to 12z snow is coming i can smell it and maybe even for the big day.

But one think i would say if GFS went further on there would be 10ft drifts everywhere.

Edited December 15, 2017 by booferking

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z just looks very very wet - no easterly that i can see...

The gulf between the oz and 6Z on the nhp is staggering. Look at the pv on both and its so different its all up in the air for me

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

17 days till new year think about that for a moment. One expects to see these rise and falls before hopefully seeing some consolidation of a cold theme touch wood.

I await to see GEFS my bet there are some corkers albeit limited in number. 

As i suggested-previous post-.. not wriiten off yet-12z- 

But if you fail to see a backtrack via gfs then i just dont know??

Given that after 240 things get interesting ...but when dont they of late via gfs model..

Lets see where we are @tea time!!??

We need to see signals for amp via any route around 196...or its chasing tails im afraid!!

Edited December 15, 2017 by tight isobar