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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

As pointed out though, theres a stonking Scandi high Easterly cluster even at 360, GEFS heading in that direction too.

But it was only 15%

still no evidence this morning that the nwp has a decent handle on week 2 

the evolution of the gfs op is more saleable to me than previous blocked runs based on ens guidance but I still don't buy it 

ecm looks fairly consistent - the n Pacific ridge which late on is causing interesting things to occur near the pole 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But it was only 15%

still no evidence this morning that the nwp has a decent handle on week 2 

the evolution of the gfs op is more saleable to me than previous blocked runs based on ens guidance but I still don't buy it 

ecm looks fairly consistent - the n Pacific ridge which late on is causing interesting things to occur near the pole 

Was just about to say though that the pacific ridge isn't as strong on this ecm run as on other output.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The digging atlantic trough end week 2 - unsettled - progressively colder - then coming up against sceuro heights and WAA into the pole - proper scandi high potential mid week 3 onwards but probably without severely cold uppers is my favourite, but with many other possibilities and given timeframes involved, prob still less than 50% but more than 15%

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS and EC are like chalk and cheese by day 10 this morning-

GFS much better with the jet digging into Europe and pressure rising to our North East, EC has nothing of the sort and has high pressure across Europe and a nasty looking vortex in place at the same time. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Have to say ecm looks pretty average imo.just fairly average looking december output !!!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, swfc said:

Have to say ecm looks pretty average imo.just fairly average looking december output !!!

 

 

Think average for the EC00Z is being generous- looks flat as a pancake by day 10- we await the Ens

Knocker in the other thread seems to be of the opinion ec46 is poor judging by his pic of sidney doing cartwheels  :D-:sorry:

sorry, should have said poor foe coldies...

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think average for the EC00Z is being generous- looks flat as a pancake by day 10- we await the Ens

Knocker in the other thread seems to be of the opinion ec46 is poor judging by his pic of sidney doing cartwheels  :D-:sorry:

sorry, should have said poor foe coldies...

 

Yes, ecm is terrible this morning. Going back to the flat evolution it was showing  a couple of days ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM 240 mean - no problem, doesn't look great but its in line with where we expect to be. trough just starting to dig - interesting ext eps coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS and EC are like chalk and cheese by day 10 this morning-

GFS much better with the jet digging into Europe and pressure rising to our North East, EC has nothing of the sort and has high pressure across Europe and a nasty looking vortex in place at the same time. 

The short to medium term ( <15 days) NWP output remains mainly poor (it's now possible that we will achieve a December CET that is warmer than average).

There may be other forces at play, the Strat, the MJO but none of these are manifesting themselves in most of the NWP output.

The Met Office forecast for early January is also less bullish with the words "low confidence" now appearing.

We need to see some decent NWP output to calm the nerves...

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 240 mean - no problem, doesn't look great but its in line with where we expect to be. trough just starting to dig - interesting ext eps coming up.

Just posted it Feb-

Hopefully as you say, the jet will start to dig south thereafter!

edit the mean has a huge PV sat over Greenland tho, hmmmmmmmm.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The saga continues..

And its a brave man/woman calling outcomes from around 23-26 dec.

Ec/gfs are becoming a world apart in evolutons...

There are some v-interesting gefs plots!

There will im sure begin-soon some reliable 'matching' via ops....

To hopefully begin, the unraveling of a quite messy/diabolic 'current' lay out of synoptics!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean day 10-

EDH1-240.GIF?15-12

I don’t like the look of that however it does seem likely we’ll have a mobile flow something which has been really missing this Autumn/Winter before whatever next. Probably plausible to go cold before Xmas but unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The extended eps looks very mobile - positive NAO.  Not overly mild but no significant cold signal.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

The extended eps looks very mobile - positive NAO.  Not overly mild but no significant cold signal.

Oh dear.

Don't like the sound of that mulzy!!

Time to take a step back and let the experts decipher where all this is going- day 10 mean has a huge PV sat over Greenland so its not a suprise the ext eps have gone +NAO.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Looks like GFS evolution at T10 on its own. Still wants to lower heights into Western Europe. ECM and GEM retaining heights over Europe and a more milder westerly flow into Northern Latitudes. UKMO looks at this stage (144t ) could be siding with the ECM model but possible with a different longer term outcome. Usually GFS is the trend setter at 240 T so we will all have to sit and wait and see  for any major adjustments or back downs with later runs. Just for interest the chart from GFS for the New Year looks snowy for North Western Europe with a substantial trough alignment. Just shows you can get cold and snow in Northwest Europe with out a freezing cold Russia as here they have above normal temps with abnormal Rossby Wave pattern in place.

C

GFSOPNH00_384_22.png

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t like the look of that however it does seem likely we’ll have a mobile flow something which has been really missing this Autumn/Winter before whatever next. Probably plausible to go cold before Xmas but unlikely.

As GP suggested though the azores high appears to be pulling West opening doors for a southerly tracking jet?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh dear.

Don't like the sound of that mulzy!!

Time to take a step back and let the experts decipher where all this is going- day 10 mean has a huge PV sat over Greenland so its not a suprise the ext eps have gone +NAO.

 

Tbh there have only been a couple of days on the nhp via gfs showing any interest in a blocky type scenario. Its an old chesnut but unless there is general agreement across the models "granted diff time scales"then best temper any excitement. Im not educated in regard to these background signals ,ssw ,enso ete but I personally am not seeing a lot to excite folk only on gfs?hopefully today will change that!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

As GP suggested though the azores high appears to be pulling West opening doors for a southerly tracking jet?

To some extent i agree but there is a pretty strong PV setting up exactly where we don't want it (Greenland) and the ext eps go +NAO so it doesn't sound good , at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

ECM goes flat overnight & GFS has got the wobbles - I feel a mobile westerly festive period is the greater probability considering current model output - With a front loader we’ll be looking for some fun and games in the first half of January 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

I think we're all at that crossroads where we're waiting for the background signals alluded to, to manifest themselves in a favourable model output. 

It's interesting but frustrating all at the same time. 

Cant help but thinking something is going to change suddenly but it's getting nerve-wracking!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Don't usually post in here as I don't have a scooby about interpreting model output, but has the GFS been the model that picks out cold trends this winter, before any other model and the rest soon follow, or am I mistaken?:unknw:

Gfs is great trend spotter..

Although has some issues as a trend setter!..

And can drop its evolutions as quick as applying them.

And given the current divergance...its a concern if cold is you favour.

However this mornings 6z and support 'should' now shed some light!?.

A big run this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Operation Save Christmas suffers a heavy blow this morning!

The GFS 00hrs is at least better than the previous 18hrs run but not as amplified as the 12hrs.

The ECM is flatter than yesterdays 12hrs run.

The UKMO is dismal from a cold perspective, the flattest of all.

Okay that's the bad news out of the way!

The ECM ensembles  show a  spread through the UK in terms of temps and the pressure ones show the spread just to the east suggesting theres support for more amplification and low pressure digging south.

The problem remains in terms of Christmas that the models agree in pushing the PV south again and you need to have a strong ridge to the ne to help disrupt some of that upstream energy.

Save Christmas drops from 5/10 last night to 4/10 after the early outputs.

We need to see more amplification within the T168hrs timeframe as quickly as possible!

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

46 dayer Northern Hemisphere charts will be available soon, still waiting for ECM strat charts (not so important as we get them next day anyway), still nothing about EPS strat charts though which would be helpful.

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