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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes was just scanning those. The 850s are average or above average until the end of January.

Probably doesn't mean much.

Might get some battlegrounds and not a million miles away from a cracker given they are ens means but at face value yes they're crap.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Im still of beleive that all the talk of the pacific ridge is taking away the fact russian warmth will be our saving grace..cutting of a segment of vortex..

And allowing any height to NW- to perhaps morph. .

Because that azores warmth is quickly expanding run 2 run!!!!

Still all to play for!!

And could well be a more defined route..via an easterly exaction.

In later suites/runs.

gfsnh-0-192.png

Screenshot_2017-12-14-22-25-25.png

Screenshot_2017-12-14-22-22-34.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

Can't speak for UKMO as its MJO output has been missing from these plots for some time now, but the ECMF prediction has increased in amplitude with each of 5 new days in a row now, taking it ever closer to the enthusiastic GEFS. This isn't the first time this season the model has been correcting toward GEFS either, so this is likely a factor in those periods of strangely flat output relative to the other models (or even in general, in this most recent case) that have been observed. 

With the Alaskan ridge it really is critical to get it sufficiently poleward enough to flip the switch to easterly potential from relentless westerly dross.

Not sure why GEFS have so many members (13 or 14 out of 20; one of those only just) going in the zonal direction given the MJO projections. Could it be a resolution thing... or a sign that even with such MJO amplitude, victory is far from assured...?

Many gfs members are going for medium amplitude and a few for relatively high amplitude  with still a pretty high mean

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 8 on the 18z bang in line with the eps mean - (which was well supported in the spread) so what follows to day 10 might be a decent call.

hum-

18z looks poor at 228 blue-

Desperate for some amplification in the Atlantic!!

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Well it’s not often you got comments in here from the very knowledgeable strat posters.

something is deffinately approaching our shores this winter.

great model watching this winter and this thread is always buzzing this year.

got this feeling with so much going so well in the background that this winter could be memorable.

the 12z tomorrow is I think a sign for xmas

just from experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 8 on the 18z bang in line with the eps mean - (which was well supported in the spread) so what follows to day 10 might be a decent call.

This run is a real litmus test, if we can get a Scandi high, looking like getting one by 384, then can only be good news.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This run is a real litmus test, if we can get a Scandi high, looking like getting one by 384, then can only be good news.

Can't see a scandy high coming on this run at 240 Feb..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps cluster scandi high drops to 14% but it's a bloody good looking undercutting cluster !!!!

I pondered earlier about height rises in the north Atlantic blue?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

hum-

18z looks poor at 228 blue-

Desperate for some amplification in the Atlantic!!

Lookout for euro ridging into scandi - not Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Time for some realism :) All this talk about amplification to our north circa 23rd December is a bit of a red herring. Yes, the ecm op at face value has given way to the gfs op persistence. However, this raising of heights/hopes is nothing more than a glorified toppler. Nothing to see here prior to New Year. Ensembles back this up. New Year onwards - still up for grabs but with the obvious disclaimer that we have all been here so many times before. That's my take on the models today. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Run to run divergance on clear view...

As the usual 'earmarked' 144 hrs...

Its wide open as to evolution prognosis after that point.

Its like balancing on a rope with one leg atm!!!!

 

 

gfs-4-234.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I pondered earlier about height rises in the north Atlantic blue?

Undercutting the scandi high NWS, not an Atlantic ridge 

anyway, the ec 46 is building a scandi surface ridge in Jan but it's a slow process!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Undercutting the scandi high NWS, not an Atlantic ridge 

anyway, the ec 46 is building a scandi surface ridge in Jan but it's a slow process!! 

OK cheers :)

18z is a bit of a mare TBH.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Can't see a scandy high coming on this run at 240 Feb..

No good this time - but there will be a cluster that gets there though on the GEFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, bluearmy said:

Undercutting the scandi high NWS, not an Atlantic ridge 

anyway, the ec 46 is building a scandi surface ridge in Jan but it's a slow process!! 

All very similar to last year and never getting any closer. What we are missing here is some heights in north east scandi/north west  Russia. This just isn't there on any of the outputs and without this we will not get our much vaunted Scandi high. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

its just one run of many. the general trend is for height rises around scandi. its going to take a few days before the details can be refined.

images-2.jpg.6e0e615d550460f03e3688de7f47c968.jpg

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters smelling the coffee now. Considering how much it's changing run to run, no need to go further ATM.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017121412_192.

As pointed out though, theres a stonking Scandi high Easterly cluster even at 360, GEFS heading in that direction too.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Time for some realism :) All this talk about amplification to our north circa 23rd December is a bit of a red herring. Yes, the ecm op at face value has given way to the gfs op persistence. However, this raising of heights/hopes is nothing more than a glorified toppler. Nothing to see here prior to New Year. Ensembles back this up. New Year onwards - still up for grabs but with the obvious disclaimer that we have all been here so many times before. That's my take on the models today. 

 

Cannot disagree with any of the above - great post and from the perspective of run by run NWP output, totally, cannot argue with it. 

The imprint of teleconnections, changes in zonal wind profile in the strat, the relocation of the vortex, the continued wave 1 activity, the latent imprint of the MJO effects stalling on the maritimes and the QBO mode view - all suggest at this time frame is a decisive tipping point for impacts on the vortex.

Therefore resulting in a couple of different roads for the remaining winter. This time precisely is the window for that evolution..representing the peak wave one activity, the peak heat flux and core shift in vorticity.

If that doesn't add up to something of a cliff hanger following the mild blip then who knows !

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
2 hours ago, booferking said:

I would say 3/4 of this forum would want a White Christmas sure thats what its all about presents drink food family and to top it of Snow.:santa-emoji:

Don't forget the 3pm tradition of watching the radar for pink blobs to spring up on the radars, especially above my favourite weather station at Albermarle barracks  who have heralded 3 winning bets for my annual Newcastle white Christmas bet :ball-santa-emoji:

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