Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[swfc]

Ecm edges towards gfs at at 168 hours kicking and screaming

Edited December 14, 2017 by swfc

[nick sussex]

The ECM still making a meal of that shortwave in the Atlantic but is slowly backtracking which is good to see.

 

[booferking]

And EC moves towards gfs.

Edited December 14, 2017 by booferking

[Singularity]

The increase in heights not only over but also out to some way WNW of the UK from ECM, coupled with the 00z EPS spread covering it, does suggest to me that GFS has once again played the trend-spotter although the transient northerly prior to Scandi high is beyond what I have been expecting so it will be interesting to see if even that bonus round manages to come through in some shape or form.

[tight isobar]

Finds its feet...

This will likely end even better than gfs..

Amp-up to greenland and segment of pv heads east...cranking down those 850s north east....

Ready for the unleash..via scandiheights...and incoming easterly...

Lets see??!!..

Edit or-even a decent greenland shut-off by 240....would surfice.

Cold building north/northeast!

Edited December 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[comet]

Quote

 

Nice round of applause for the gfs please.

Edited December 14, 2017 by comet

[bluearmy]

Just now, comet said:

Nice round of applause for the gfs please.

absolutely deserved ................

although we need to see where the potential solution is going

[northwestsnow]

EC has backtracked on this mornings run 144-168-

For now that will do..

[nick sussex]

Oh dear  whats happened to the ECM and UKMO.

Both have performed poorly for several days and are now having to climbdown, very unusual to see this given its normally the GFS which has a flat bias.

Looks like NOAA were right to berate recent ECM op runs.

The once star of the model stage turning into Norma Desmond!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, moved towards GFS, flirting with another Friday northerly, northerlies do tend to arrive Fri/Sat, just like plumes Tues

[comet]

We need to see the heights pushing up from Alaska force their way into the Arctic to support the ridge and allow heights to build over north western Russia rather than retreat back into Canada.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

Well done GFS , I think... scared to compliment it 

Nothing verified yet, but GFS appears to be best model, at least this Dec

[northwestsnow]

Yes nothing is resolved yet but at this stage it looks like GFS has pulled a huge coup against euro!!

144 onwards massively different to the 00z run from EC..

[nick sussex]

Operation Save Christmas moves to 5/10.

If we can squeeze more amplitude upstream then we could see some interest develop around that time. Perhaps we might be talking about another slider drama!

 

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh dear  whats happened to the ECM and UKMO.

Both have performed poorly for several days and are now having to climbdown, very unusual to see this given its normally the GFS which has a flat bias.

Looks like NOAA were right to berate recent ECM op runs.

The once star of the model stage turning into Norma Desmond!

It can only be one thing that is causing this......a rare occurrence is manifesting itself in the wings

[tight isobar]

A cold xmas gathering pace.

A milder blip is well on the cards..

But as thought short/very short lived.

Another frame or two on the ec 12z...

I would think have some dribbling!!!

@xmas-cold

Edited December 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Operation Save Christmas moves to 5/10.

If we can squeeze more amplitude upstream then we could see some interest develop around that time. Perhaps we might be talking about another slider drama!

 

Please god no, it literally waved at my house then sunk south

[northwestsnow]

Thnk i can see where meto are going here- 

looking at EC i would expect the jet to carry on in an SE axis eventually leading to heights building (possibly in the N Atlantic)..

Massive swing to cold this evening around chrimbo and thereafter..

[northwestsnow]

Would be great to hear from Steve/GP/Tamara and others as to their thoughts on where we are headed post xmas- we know Exeter think we are headed in a cold direction.

 

[Daniel*]

26 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

It looks very likely to happen now, this has been showing for a few days, happy days, I can't afford having the heating on for any longer after these last 7 very cold days, I now have to rely on nature's heating so hopefully they'll be lots of sun with that high!

GFS for the last few days has been interested in a chilly, seasonable, Christmas period from 21st.

I’m afraid things are primed for further cold outbreak(s) it’s not ideal, but put on more layers! Most of next week will come as a relief for you & you’re far from alone, knocker is grimacing as we speak, however I sense things will turn soon enough. 

Edited December 14, 2017 by Daniel*

[northwestsnow]

EXT  eps awaited with interest- one would hope the signal for a blocking high has increased this evening-

I have a sneaky feeling we could be looking NW as we go past xmas.

[mulzy]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EXT  eps awaited with interest- one would hope the signal for a blocking high has increased this evening-

I have a sneaky feeling we could be looking NW as we go past xmas.

Baby steps but it looks like the eps more amplified days 7-9.  Not a done deal yet, but moving in the right direction.  The clusters will be interesting...

Edited December 14, 2017 by mulzy

[Man With Beard]

The ECM - not long ago it was the one model that overdid amplification between D7 and D10 - but since its upgrade last winter, I've felt it has actually slightly underdone amplification. I wonder, then, if this backtrack tonight is just the beginning of a move to another potent northerly.

[phil nw.]

Just glancing at the GFS charts and the stark differences from day 11 between the ens mean and the op.The Op inflates the Azores high ne towards Scandinavia whilst at the same time the ens. mean brings the Canadian trough se towards us as the Azores high flattens and exits west.Not unlike the evoultion that is hinted at on the day 10 ECM operational.

 

 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Really like the way things are developing now for the Christmas period and beyond. Those background signals are starting to show on the models with GFS having started the ball rolling. Hopefully when that ball stops rolling it will be with the beast from the east and in the middle of winter!  Maybe time yet for us to get the cold by Christmas too, the way things are trending. I think its starting to look increasingly good from a coldies perspective.