Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was for an extended period of months though ??

jan could have a very cold three weeks and that forecast could still be spot on

gfs 12z slower off the esb with the trough and more amplification than the 06z 

looking to see how far west the northerly can get day 7/8 

yes fair point blue-

looking for that trough to drop as near to our east coast pos and dig into europe..

Edited December 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z now toying with heights at greenland...

Gfs is steadfast and intent to find blocking via any-evolution...

Good to see!

[nick sussex]

Happy Christmas from the GFS 12hrs run!

Much better than this morning. We do get some phasing with that shortwave but have a better tilt to the upstream troughing.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Happy Christmas from the GFS 12hrs run!

Much better than this morning. We do get some phasing with that shortwave but have a better tilt to the upstream troughing.

 

Im thinking the first trough wont produce but will dig into europe and the amplification will follow.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 12hrs run looks more amplified over the USA than the 06hrs. The issue is whether shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic will complicate any WAA into Greenland as happened this morning.

 

And right on cue its going to deliver, that shortwave looks to be absorbed by the main body of troughing over Canada - Game on here for N'ly followed by powerhouse E'ly.

[Daniel*]

GFS sticking to its guns long may it continue to do so!

[northwestsnow]

And right on cue GFS suddenly looks even better!!

Snow showers moving into elevated NW Britain fri 22nd..

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And right on cue its going to deliver, that shortwave looks to be absorbed by the main body of troughing over Canada - Game on here for N'ly followed by powerhouse E'ly.

We're going to need some trough disruption to cut the limpet high off.

A good trend at least and miles better than the ECM Scrooge runs of recent days.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We're going to need some trough disruption to cut the limpet high off.

A good trend at least and miles better than the ECM Scrooge runs of recent days.

Need EC to start moving in this direction now Nick

[booferking]

If we get that first low to slide it could be game on for Xmas..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Another weekend another northerly invasion , theme of the autumn / winter so far ! 

indeed!!

hopefully the starter before the main course !!

[Day 10]

GFS improving with each run, much better ridging upto Greenland at 180hrs (so mid term & not miles out). So could this milder/less cold spell just be a blip and the cold returns fairly quickly.

Very interesting start to Winter so far.

 

[northwestsnow]

yes a cut off high by sat23rd over east greenland, jet should shear our high now and the azores high gets dragged west.

thats the plan!!

gfs losing the plot here and putting all the energy into the northern arm..

Edited December 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

At T192hrs what we need to see is a shortwave forming at the base of the upstream trough heading se and cutting off the high, this will force the high centre to shift west and bring lower heights to the south. We need a more amplified upstream shortwave circled red to downstream sharpen up the flow, this will also help to pull the PV further to the nw as it phases with that.

If that happens we could develop a cut off high to the nw and bingo a cold Christmas!

 

[Methuselah]

I like the look of this (aye, it's another Friday!): -8 to -10C uppers right down the east coast...Thundersnow!

PS: It's a Saturday!

Edited December 14, 2017 by Ed Stone

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is out, not as good as the GFS but moving in the right direction. Just need the ECM to drop the misery and remember we're getting close to Christmas!

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I like the look of this (aye, it's another Friday!): -8 to -10C uppers right down the east coast...Thundersnow!

Gfs does love a' weekend polar blast mate!!!

Just lately.

Edited December 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

 I still think we will get the Easterly here, shortwaves are being ejected from the Canadian segment towards the sceuro troughing but they are being absorbed clean and despite this, theres just no signal to lower heights significantly enough over Greenland to stop us.

Edited December 14, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

More randomness from gfs in fi and yet the evolution has a familiar look to it - just five hundred miles further northeast than last weekend due to the upstream forcing 

[tight isobar]

12z has a much colder xmas eve than its sister suite 6z.

For illustration/highlight..

The colder solutions flagging up now..

Need continued suite support ens..

 

6z

12z

Edited December 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 I still think we will get the Easterly here, shortwaves are being ejected from the Canadian segment towards the sceuro troughing but they are being absorbed clean and despite this, theres just no signal to lower heights significantly enough over Greenland to stop us.

I don’t see that at all myself no blocking to the NE we’ll be looking north not east.

[nick sussex]

Good news NOAA have criticized this mornings ECM op run.

GEFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE REMAINING CONSENSUS.  NOTE THAT 00Z
ECMWF SHORTWAVE DETAILS WITHIN AND UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH BECOME
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE MAJORITY CLUSTER BY DAY 7 THU

That's part of the problem in terms of it delivering that crud downstream!

[Summer Sun]

GEM not going the way of GFS at t192 it does, however, introduce a cooler flow by D10

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t see that at all myself no blocking to the NE we’ll be looking north not east.

We nearly did and indeed might well have gone on to, in fact we did get an E'ly just with no cold uppers.

Edited December 14, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

If you compare last nights UKMO with todays you can see its starting to resolve shortwaves upstream, note the clean flow today compared to yesterday:

So last nights 12hrs to T144hrs:

Then compare it to tonights to 120hrs.