Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[joggs]

I feel the ecm  will slowly come around to the way of thinking re, gfs fi.

[booferking]

Sliding monster.

[Glacier Point]

Thinking aloud somewhat here..

The Alaskan ridge development has sound backing. What looks most likely is that this will shift poleward in the Christmas period.

Towards the end of the year, GFS again develops a ridge over Scandinavia (was there on the 00z GEFS). I think fair chance of this occurring although timing is open to question. 

The two features occurring at the same time - natural evolution would be for some sort of Arctic ridge to develop. That way lies cold Nirvana. Either way, GFS continuing to bang the drum for a colder take on the New Year.

[bluearmy]

Eps cluster on undercut only 15% and takes an age to do it - almost there at day 15 

 

[Methuselah]

But...Whatever happened to the Yuletide slide? Never mind, it's only rock 'n' roll!

Anyway, the end-of-run malarkey is reminiscent of winters past...

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps cluster on undercut only 15% and takes an age to do it - almost there at day 15 

 

Thats a disappointment Blue

Was hoping for much more than 15% -

clearly ext eps have a large number of flat solutions..

Edited December 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Thinking aloud somewhat here..

The Alaskan ridge development has sound backing. What looks most likely is that this will shift poleward in the Christmas period.

Towards the end of the year, GFS again develops a ridge over Scandinavia (was there on the 00z GEFS). I think fair chance of this occurring although timing is open to question. 

The two features occurring at the same time - natural evolution would be for some sort of Arctic ridge to develop. That way lies cold Nirvana. Either way, GFS continuing to bang the drum for a colder take on the New Year.

don’t think aloud Stewart ........ too many people are listening !!

the split vortex and cross polar flow is just waiting to happen but the chances of it actually verifying (and at an axis which hits nw Europe with the cold) remains low.

but at least we have a ticket to the January raffle !!

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Thats a disappointment Blue

Was hoping for much more than 15% -

The post day 10 eps clusters are prone to variance as resolution drops but that 15% area has been fairly consistent for a more amplified solution to Scandi for a few runs now. 

The trend is dropping heights to our west later week 2 and my view is whilst that will show a sou’wester mean flow for nw Europe, it’s a better place for the bulk of the jet to be headed than to our ne 

slowly, slowly at the moment but things can accelerate 

[Day 10]

Way out in FI at the minute but the Christmas & New Year period looks like the one people are keeping an eye on. Let's hope this kind of trend starts to gather pace, very early days though.

Some cracking charts toward the end of last few GFS runs.

[bobbydog]

the 06z is less amplified earlier on, seemingly struggling to get ridging up towards scandi

yet we end up with this beauty-

this recurring theme can't be ignored now. the GFS seems determined to give us that scandi high by whatever means. as it stands, i think the only uncertainty is the timing. its 'when', not 'if' it happens...

 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the 06z is less amplified earlier on, seemingly struggling to get ridging up towards scandi

yet we end up with this beauty-

this recurring theme can't be ignored now. the GFS seems determined to give us that scandi high by whatever means. as it stands, i think the only uncertainty is the timing. its 'when', not 'if' it happens...

 

If wont be a case of when and not if until this is shown inside +144. Anything after really is not worth looking at in my experience of watching the models over the last 15 years. 

[Met4Cast]

On 11/12/2017 at 13:10, Danny* said:

There's a few people in here being a bit quick to call "mild" in my opinion. Yes, it's likely to be less cold by the end of the week but going forward into next week it looks more like North-Westerlies will mostly dominate, it'll be wet with a fair amount of rain around as fronts push Eastwards but certainly nothing I'd call "mild", merely less cold than recent. 

Looking ahead, Tamara, GP etc have gone into detail about how heights towards Scandi look likely to develop towards the end of the month/early December and a few GFS ensembles are starting to pick up on that signal, too, not less, so is the control run.

Control

GEFS members

Obviously they're in a minority at the moment, but there is slowly growing support for that signal within the suites including within the EC too with some members trending colder in the extended

Plenty to be optimistic about, I can't see anything to suggest raging zonal winds and mild Atlantic muck as per the last 3-4 winters. Watch the Scandi height signal grow through this week and expect the OP runs to start throwing out increasingly erratic outputs in the mid-extended range, too.

The MJO is moving towards phase 8, 10+ days lag time puts us around Christmas, key dates for me at the moment are 24th - 29th December for blocking to begin developing.

Well.. 4 days on and the GFS is continuing to be bullish for heights building over Scandinavia/North of the UK. The Op admittedly has been on the colder side of the ensembles (with a little support) but it's the consistency that interests me.

The ECM clusters also show some sign of Scandi Heights building too, though a minor 15% at this stage

I'd expect the signal to continue to grow over the next few days with much more support by Tuesday. Timing is still obviously in question but I think towards New Years being a good timeframe, rather than Christmas sadly. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Well.. 4 days on and the GFS is continuing to be bullish for heights building over Scandinavia/North of the UK. The Op admittedly has been on the colder side of the ensembles (with a little support) but it's the consistency that interests me.

The ECM clusters also show some sign of Scandi Heights building too, though a minor 15% at this stage

I'd expect the signal to continue to grow over the next few days with much more support by Tuesday. Timing is still obviously in question but I think towards New Years being a good timeframe, rather than Christmas sadly. 

Dont like the look of cluster 1 or 3 !!

All we can do is hope cluster 4 picks up momentum over the next 48 hours..

[Glacier Point]

One thing GEFS and EPS are agreed on: the sub-tropical ridge in the Atlantic is pulled well to the SW over Bermuda during the longer term. That either leaves Europe with a Scandinavian or Euro ridge as a final destination for this phase.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Glacier Point

[bobbydog]

9 minutes ago, MKN said:

If wont be a case of when and not if until this is shown inside +144. Anything after really is not worth looking at in my experience of watching the models over the last 15 years. 

of course, its a long way off and plenty of time for things to change but the background signals, teleconnections and drivers have been hinting at this for some time. we now have this repeatedly shown in the models at the projected timeframe. coincidence?....

Edited December 14, 2017 by bobbydog

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

One thing GEFS and EPS are agreed on: the sub-tropical ridge in the Atlantic is pulled well to the SW over Bermuda during the longer term. That either leaves Europe with a Scandinavian or Euro ridge.

Yes- would like to see the azores high dragged out into the western Atlantic-

Hopefully the MJO will assist here..

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

One thing GEFS and EPS are agreed on: the sub-tropical ridge in the Atlantic is pulled well to the SW over Bermuda during the longer term. That either leaves Europe with a Scandinavian or Euro ridge as a final destination for this phase.

paddy power is already paying out ...........

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

paddy power is already paying out ...........

Euro ridge?

Yuk- sounds a bit  like a euro high?

[tight isobar]

London 6z gfs ens. ?

Edited December 14, 2017 by tight isobar

[iamgazza]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

London 6z gfs ens. ?

Love the rogue Xmas day run lol.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

don’t think aloud Stewart ........ too many people are listening !!

the split vortex and cross polar flow is just waiting to happen but the chances of it actually verifying (and at an axis which hits nw Europe with the cold) remains low.

but at least we have a ticket to the January raffle !!

Nick's report earlier from US state forecasters suggested the same thing. There is a logic to that progression, particularly when factoring in low vortex impact on the atlantic pattern at the moment. Ties in rather well too with Dec composites for MJO phase 7. I continue to feel things are aligning, for now at least...

[sebastiaan1973]

Hi Catacol, where can we find these composites? Thanks!

[Methuselah]

I'm starting to worry that we might heading towards a dreaded 'displaced Bartlett'. 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm starting to worry that we might heading towards a dreaded 'displaced Bartlett'. 

Based on what evidence?

[Anti-Mild]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm starting to worry that we might heading towards a dreaded 'displaced Bartlett'. 

Given the UK weather rule that states that in winter the worst case scenario is the one most likely to come to fruition that is my worry also.