Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Further..

1987 winter compare..

Is a source..

@micheal ventrice

86/7 not 87/88?  Right?

 

BFTP

[ArHu3]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst the ecm trop run looks poor for coldies, the upper strat is excellent - if only we could get a coupling and see that imprint further down

Anyway, will be in Berlin in a few hours 

 

If you have access to eps stratosphere data, Judah Cohen is begging people on Twitter to share those with him and who knows you might get something nice in return 

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

86/7 not 87/88?  Right?

 

BFTP

Obviously, but still not that similar in my eyes. PV not organised this year.I hope we end up the same though

1987

2017

Edited December 13, 2017 by winterof79

[damianslaw]

I was going to refrain from model watching for a week until next Monday, but reading the meto longer range forecast got me wondering whether the expected signal for westerly onslaught might not be what they are offering.. - and well, the signal is for a continuation of a very amplified flow, a good chance the azores high will inflate through the south of the country, but once again deep long wave trough anchoring down across the USA eastern seaboard, and viola the azores high ridges back westwards and northwards - and another northerly shot could be on the cards in time for christmas. I will now refrain from looking until Monday, and am expecting by then continued signs of northerly height influences as we head through the last week of December setting us up for a very wintry start to 2018.

 

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

If you have access to eps stratosphere data, Judah Cohen is begging people on Twitter to share those with him and who knows you might get something nice in return 

I don’t 

i wish I did 

just operational 

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Obviously, but still not that similar in my eyes. PV not organised this year.I hope we end up the same though

1987

2017

You've posted a chart from Dec 1987 there dude

Presuming you meant to find an image of Dec 1986 to demonstrate what was happening before that glorious fortnight in Jan 87?

[Summer Sun]

It looks like a cloudy high certainly to start next week which will see temps soar compared to of late widely in double figures by Tuesday with some places possibly hitting 13c

ECM shows this change to milder temps and increased cloud under the high which will prevent temps from falling much especially overnight

[tight isobar]

20 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

86/7 not 87/88?  Right?

 

BFTP

Correct.

[bobbydog]

29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

86/7 not 87/88?  Right?

 

BFTP

nope, neither. - 62/63....

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

i know  the models  and  fantasy world is all over  the  place i see now they say the big day could  be white!! so i guess  we keep looking!!

[winterof79]

37 minutes ago, LRD said:

You've posted a chart from Dec 1987 there dude

Presuming you meant to find an image of Dec 1986 to demonstrate what was happening before that glorious fortnight in Jan 87?

Yes I did need to put a chart up from Dec 86 same vortex intensity though

 

[Nick F]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes I did need to put a chart up from Dec 86 same vortex intensity though

 

The difference back then was a deep cold pool over NW Russia, don't have that at the moment or probably next week or more. Need that cold vortex to develop to the NE to get anything like a Jan '87 or other deep cold easterlies.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I don’t 

i wish I did 

just operational 

We all might have access though soon, whisper it quietly.

EDIT : wrong sorry, it doesn't include ensembles I don't think.

Edited December 13, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy L]

Pretty good consistency between 12z and 18z up to day 8 so far. Even if we dont get any nice synoptics in FI, the start of amplification is there at day 6. Need ECM to catch up.

Edited December 13, 2017 by Snowy L

[swfc]

Better heighths from the pacific on the 18z atlantic ridge pushing north . possible total split in the pv????hmm maybe not this run

Edited December 13, 2017 by swfc

[Man With Beard]

Any signs of the ECM clusters tonight following the GFS ops with a D8 North Atlantic ridge? Best filed under "thinking about it"

    

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Its all gone wrong on the 18z GFS.

[feb1991blizzard]

The ridge just collapses after looking at one stage like it would be a repeat of the 12z

[comet]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst the ecm trop run looks poor for coldies, the upper strat is excellent - if only we could get a coupling and see that imprint further down

Anyway, will be in Berlin in a few hours 

 

They are coupled and have been for a while.

[snowbunting]

Long way out... Taking note of the cold nly plunge around Christmas day.. present on the 12z still there in some respects on the 18z. 

Hmmm. Wonder what the GFS is sniffing at?

[tight isobar]

Out into -daft- time frame..

We still are in compliance of momentum jet...

And forsee' of liable ridge establish.

The canadian settlement -align- with asian /russian jet..is compensation for diluted russian waa.

And shouts the angular-momentum..

That NW-europe-uk needs for pin-point exactions...

Revereberations' along with outer northern hem-is decently progressing!!

The wait isnt as tedious, as some may beleive!

To back/suggest my thoughts..iv'e done a break-of telecon-/raw output and ens script..

I will elaborate in an' exacting forecast of my very own.. next 24hrs.

..and yes ..there will be some poetry!!???

Edited December 13, 2017 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, comet said:

They are coupled and have been for a while.

Ecm Day 9 at 30 hpa and then in the trop op and  ens - perhaps you can see that the two are not the same upstream - not saying they don't share some features but the Canadian vortex is an anomolous pain as usual ...

[Polar Maritime]

Back to the Models please. Some post have had to go. Thanks

Edited December 13, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[HighPressure]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Pm me pal.

I'll chat to you on a higher sense of meteorology!!

Your obviously top knowledge!!!

Trouble is there are a lot of us thickies watching this thread trying our best to understand the terms used, and what they mean. I know you don't have too but sometimes an explanation for us idiots would really help

 

[lawrenk]

20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Out into -daft- time frame..

We still are in compliance of momentum jet...

And forsee' of liable ridge establish.

The canadian settlement -align- with asian /russian jet..is compensation for diluted russian waa.

And shouts the angular-momentum..

That NW-europe-uk needs for pin-point exactions...

Revereberations' along with outer northern hem-is decently progressing!!

The wait isnt as tedious, as some may beleive!

To back/suggest my thoughts..iv'e done a break-of telecon-/raw output and ens script..

I will elaborate in an' exacting forecast of my very own.. next 24hrs.

..and yes ..there will be some poetry!!???

Absolutely.