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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My question is do we really want to see a lengthy period of calm nothingness?..I would say no because it would be eating up valuable winter time..but at the end of the day, we don't really have a choice do we..it's all down to luck!

I would just be thankful we finally have a prospect of a near-average/below December. First one since 2012 for the UK. It's really only when people post unrealistic charts of 1962 does a week of high pressure and frost feel like robbery.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

I would just be thankful we finally have a prospect of a near-average/below December. First one since 2012 for the UK. It's really only when people post unrealistic charts of 1962 does a week of high pressure and frost feel like robbery.

Except it might not be a week of frost, it could easily be a week of boring rather cloudy mild dross under a cloudy high..no thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's not a million miles away from the GFS - a potential NW to N outbreak of unknown duration??:santa-emoji:

GFSOPEU12_216_1.png.1fd4748d1aa2c3fad0b7

I'd say it is identical....that is the 12z GFS!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
24 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

Funny you should say that, my sister and I were saying 2 weeks ago that this winter "feels" more like the winters of our youth in the 80's and 90's, so fingers crossed.

Nineties winters done nothing for me here , eighties was a lot better:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM still vile no change there I see no similarity to GFS, I don’t understand why folk keep making parallels to extreme winters of yesteryear all the time, each winter is unique and that presents its own challenges, you can’t draw anything from the past really to how the future is going to transpire. 

7F32C85A-5EA3-4CB3-A5C8-949800263715.thumb.jpeg.7e03d1de6f615be1b7293283a7b6a04d.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The re appearance Pacific/ NA  ridge now delayed to day 10 on both op runs this evening,on yesterdays charts we were looking at this for around day 7 so some re-adjustment in the timing of the possible pattern change.

GFS seems to have the greater ridging on this probably because the GFS forecasts for the MJO shows the stronger convection compared the ECM forecast in today's outputs.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Both show a move east into phase 7 so with the lag effect it may be a few runs before ECM develop this theme of further amplification which could eventually translate downstream into the Atlantic.As we have seen earlier with various GFS runs today this has gone onto develop some real Wintery outputs around the Christmas period.

As ever though MJO charts are simply forecasts and can change wrt timing/degrees of amplifications and speed and progress of the area of convection across the Pacific so this will impinge on the NWP -all the more reason to take anything beyond 4/5 days in the daily runs with an open mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes i suspect by day 10 EC is shifting the core low heights eastwards- hoping for some amplification in the western Atlantic thereafter to promote a pattern change..

All eyes on eps days 11 onwards ..

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t understand why folk keep making parallels to extreme winters of yesteryear all the time, each winter is unique and that presents its own challenges, you can’t draw anything from the past really to how the future is going to transpire. 

It is pointless. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

Awesome post @Catacol it's looking like we just need to be patient and let the pieces of the jigsaw work into place and the nwp will start producing outputs that are being dictated by the teleconections. I do hope that next weeks mild blip is just that, and we can look forward to a few weeks of wintery hopefully snowy weather as we head into the new year. :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

First signs on ecm 12z operational at t240 throwing up a ridge towards the Arctic from the pacific side. FI will be especially volatile with its output until the models grasp how strong a ridge we are likely to see. Also how significant a strat warming to coincide with MJO ridge will determine length and severity of possible oncoming cold spell end of Dec onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended continues with the high over the UK not completely dry though we pick up enough cloud to produce some rain in the north and west

ukm2.2017122012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.558ae68435910bf7114f87baf73927dc.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
57 minutes ago, shotski said:

Sorry if it’s been discussed already but does anyone know what this graph is showing ??

3602682B-9470-4157-962C-D7B35C9E23BE.jpeg

Ventrice' graphs are off the scale!

And deciphering is complex...

But that looks to me as base-drop..

Euro- freezer.

Its the minimalisation of...off the scale.

Looks quite incredible!!!!

@guise!!!

Almost evaporative polar vortex.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

What do you think it means though?

Ext eps coming out...xmas day doesn't look White

image.png

Whats extraordinary..

Is the normal canadian lump-load vortex' is our needle in the ar#e..

But given momentum and perfect placements!!..

Could be the ace card...-very unusual-..

And downwell/assortment are miraculously in euro plots/favour..

And the draw could be of out of usual thought fruition!!!

Lets see he's conclude though.

He-s held in high regard for he's dynamical decipher!!!!

All very very interesting!!!

 

'Further'...

Thats one hot ridge that doesnt fail the scope...

And is damaging to the usual format...

Given other telecons!

Screenshot_2017-12-13-20-21-17.png

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Whats extraordinary..

Is the normal canadian lump-load vortex' is our needle in the ar#e..

But given momentum and perfect placements!!..

Could be the ace card...-very unusual-..

And downwell/assortment are miraculously in euro plots/favour..

And the draw could be of out of usual thought fruition!!!

Lets see he's conclude though.

He-s held in high regard for he's dynamical decipher!!!!

All very very interesting!!!

Anyone got google translate?

By day 14 of todays 12z EPS were seeing signs of a Scandinavian block appearing, certainly a better picture than yesterdays day 15 - Hopefully its picking up on some amplitude which *hopefully* will gather pace in coming runs.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Anyone got google translate?

By day 14 of todays 12z EPS were seeing signs of a Scandinavian block appearing, certainly a better picture than yesterdays day 15 - Hopefully its picking up on some amplitude which *hopefully* will gather pace in coming runs.

Google translate..??

Not needed pal..

As again an'evaluation on my own assumptions.

Await the update!...

Poet an'i know it! .?

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Model implausability. EPS through latter part of the run has a trough extending from Baja to the Caspian Sea. Really ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Whilst the ecm trop run looks poor for coldies, the upper strat is excellent - if only we could get a coupling and see that imprint further down

Anyway, will be in Berlin in a few hours 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Further..

1987 winter compare..

Is a source..

@micheal ventrice

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Both ext ens charts at day 15 have a very similar 500 NH pattern.Pacific/Alaskan ridge with +ve anomalies stretching across the pole towards Siberia.Canadian trough extending east into the N.Atlantic towards the UK above a flat sub-tropical high extending east from Bermuda.Just a hint of +ve ht anomalies around S.Scandinavia.

Gefs day 15

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

Looks like a typical nina pattern.

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