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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sadly well out in la la land could go the same way as those blow torch south westerlies did not so long ago. If it's still there next Wednesday I may sit up a bit more and take notice.

If you pay attention to posts by @Glacier Point, @Tamara and @Catacol, you'll be aware that background oscillations and teleconnections generally support the idea of blocking around or just after the New Year - the south-westerlies that appeared in the outputs a few weeks ago were against the backdrop of factors that made them seem less likely.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If you pay attention to posts by @Glacier Point, @Tamara and @Catacol, you'll be aware that background oscillations and teleconnections generally support the idea of blocking around or just after the New Year - the south-westerlies that appeared in the outputs a few weeks ago were against the backdrop of factors that made them seem less likely.

There points do have a good foundation to them but pit is correct in his comment to a degree. These runs do flip and change"has you are seeing on gfs today" so nothing concrete yet at all but a good starting point 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

December 1962 had an early cold spell around a very similar time to this, delivered in pretty much the same way (short potent northerly blast), only for milder conditions to briefly take over before December 25th... who says lightning can't strike twice! 

That’s a five day ban ..............,,,

all eyes on the eastern seaboard day 7/8

ecm should be flatter than gfs unless ......

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The run came out Monday evening so not sure what is so strange that we haven’t heard from anyone about it for nearly 48 hours !!

 

Posted the question on Twitter i.e. Care to explain, random new format in that graph... week on week continuity in clustering. PDF explained as Probability Density Distribution. How this layers into ECM weeklies, unsure.. doubt I will get a reply as I think to some degree it is clickbait for subscribers to WSI - we shall see..

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

That’s a five day ban ..............,,,

all eyes on the eastern seaboard day 7/8

ecm should be flatter than gfs unless ......

Yup- i notied the difference between GFS and UKMO at 144 blue-

UKMO flatter - probably limiting Atlantic retrogression ...

I wouldn't expect EC to back GFS but as you say...(fingers and toes crossed)!!

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Posted the question on Twitter i.e. Care to explain, random new format in that graph... week on week continuity in clustering. PDF explained as Probability Density Distribution. How this layers into ECM weeklies, unsure.. doubt I will get a reply as I think to some degree it is clickbait for subscribers to WSI - we shall see..

its to do with the sub seasonal rather than the ec 46 anyway.  like you said - clickbait !

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Posted the question on Twitter i.e. Care to explain, random new format in that graph... week on week continuity in clustering. PDF explained as Probability Density Distribution. How this layers into ECM weeklies, unsure.. doubt I will get a reply as I think to some degree it is clickbait for subscribers to WSI - we shall see..

Could it be to do with more confidence in an outcome (week 4), regardless of a spread of routes (week3)

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup- i notied the difference between GFS and UKMO at 144 blue-

UKMO flatter - probably limiting Atlantic retrogression ...

I wouldn't expect EC to back GFS but as you say...(fingers and toes crossed)!!

there have been ecm spreads recently showing a cluster heading that way but they have gone now and the spread this morning was on lower heights to our wnw, not more amplified than the mean.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would hazard a guess to say cold clustering from the east...

Or the same thing GEFS showed us today too

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Guys keep an eye on this high pressure day 7/8- it’s angle is pitching North West going against the flow- Greenland High pressures come from highs that either ridge North out of the Azores or North West from the uk ( circa 2010 )

I’m not saying it will however...

1A19A308-D695-4199-9A42-BFA2AA3018DF.thumb.png.14f95de4226984efa362198b9f225003.png

 

37 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

December 1962 had an early cold spell around a very similar time to this, delivered in pretty much the same way (short potent northerly blast), only for milder conditions to briefly take over before December 25th... who says lightning can't strike twice! 

 

Looking at that NH chart, you wouldn't believe what was to occur just less than a week away.. 

image.png

I was just doing a reply to Steve's post and a second post appears on my very subject! This is just for fun but it's an interesting comparison and shows you what can happen almost out of the blue....

q-sign-ramp-ahead-1800x1200_0.jpg

Today's GFS 12z run from T+180 to T+222:

  gfsnh-0-180.png?12?12     gfsnh-0-192.png?12?12     gfsnh-0-210.png?12?12     gfsnh-0-222.png?12?12

Now this is what "can" happen once a century (but it probably will not):

NCEP Re-Analysis December 1962 charts:

   archivesnh-1962-12-20-0-0.png    archivesnh-1962-12-22-0-0.png    archivesnh-1962-12-25-0-0.png     archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.png

There goes my balanced reputation!

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Well for me Ecm looking interesting at t144.....looks like a chance of more amplification if you look at the HP bulge way west.....heading GFS way?

 

BFTP

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC follows UKMO at 144..

No surprise really.

Interesting model watching and let's not forget. The models will do with the info fed to them.This winter stinks of winters of old.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well for me Ecm looking interesting at t144.....looks like a chance of more amplification if you look at the HP bulge way west.....heading GFS way?

 

BFTP

its is very different to gfs off the eastern seaboard at 144-

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

its is very different to gfs off the eastern seaboard at 144-

 

Definitely a nudge more amplifIcation though, and t168 not as flat as 00z either but more movement needed.  It’s a start....yep, t192 not amazing but a good shift

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Anti-Mild Contributor

Anti-Mild

Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
Posted
1 minute ago, joggs said:

No surprise really.

Interesting model watching and let's not forget. The models will do with the info fed to them.This winter stinks of winters of old.

Funny you should say that, my sister and I were saying 2 weeks ago that this winter "feels" more like the winters of our youth in the 80's and 90's, so fingers crossed.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC is hideous ..again.

Nothing like GFS thats for sure!!

so what would you call the 00z?  

:D

It’s moved in the right direction as a start. 

 

BFTP

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is hideous ..again.

Nothing like GFS thats for sure!!

Hopefully one of the milder options- 

 

They look pretty similar, except for the retrogression to Greenland on the gfs, but that could be timing 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

ECM much better than GFS if it is a lengthy period of calm weather you want and the chances of some frost and fog

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.29d63342aa21fd61c4518b12b65f123f.pngGFSOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.12cf1a4db45363abcd3a71c4e054cfab.png

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.33b5c88a2a47c7458f11246f95505cc0.pngGFSOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.45e19d477a34dcf6568c8de411534cfb.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

That's not a million miles away from the GFS - a potential NW to N outbreak of unknown duration??:santa-emoji:

GFSOPEU12_216_1.png.1fd4748d1aa2c3fad0b7

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

My question is do we really want to see a lengthy period of calm nothingness like the Ecm 12z?..I would say no because it would be eating up valuable winter time..but at the end of the day, we don't really have a choice do we..it's all down to luck!

Edited by Frosty.
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's not a million miles away from the GFS - a potential NW to N outbreak of unknown duration??:santa-emoji:

GFSOPEU12_216_1.png.1fd4748d1aa2c3fad0b7

What model is this?????

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