Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[Guest]

WINTER 2017/18 REPORT No. 4c WITH DECEMBER 12th INPUT

PART 3: With my main weekly reports tending to be quite long, I shall continue to split them into at least 2 parts probably posted several days apart. This is in 3 parts. As they can take many hours to prepare, this will enable me to draw more on the most recent model runs rather than earlier ones. Part 1 (on page 7 of this thread) reviewed the model output and looked well ahead for any early signals of a possible second cold spell. Part 2 (on page 17 of this thread) included an update of my European indicators and analysis with a special feature on different types of easterly air streams and this final part focuses on my Arctic indicators.

Interpreting the Model Output and Appreciating the Relative Merits of Teleconnection Science:

Before I get into the main part of my report, I must address a subject that has been gnawing away at me for the last 2 years. This is the constant dismissal by some members of the benefits of teleconnection science. I urge all members to read this in full before jumping to any conclusions.  I want to avoid opening a can of worms and in fact I am making an attempt to bring everyone together. Unlike the divisions over Brexit which have polarised opinions throughout our country and looks set to continue we on this forum have the ability to overcome our differences and make this forum a better place for everyone.

Very often the negative comments made are not backed up by any evidence or facts in much the same way as certain models can come in for criticism which is not backed up later by the verification statistics. I believe that part of the problem is due to a lack of understanding of a pretty complex subject.  Going by my own experience, I have taken a keen interest in meteorology for over 55 years. Back in the late 1950s, weather forecasters did not have the benefits of computer models, satellite imagery, the internet or fast communications. Charts were hand drawn (even pre fax charts back then) based on collated data received from readings sent in by weather stations, ships, planes and balloons. The 3D understanding of the atmosphere and the impacts from the jet stream were still in their infancy. 24 hour forecasts were far less reliable then compared to 7 to 14 day forecasts today. 

We take an awful lot for granted. The enormous advances in meteorological science in recent years have been due to the embracing of new technology.  Despite all this, there is still a strong human element and professional forecasters still have to make some tricky decisions even though they have some very sophisticated tools at their disposal. I’m sure that the likes of @johnholmes (as most of you will know, John is a retired professional meteorologist and a regular contributor on the NetWeather forums with some very helpful posts) will tell you that it can be a struggle to keep up with the sheer pace of change.

I have always remained a keen amateur and although I have a good grasp of the basics and many years of experience in studying and understanding charts and maps and also read many books and papers on the subject, I am the first to admit that I am definitely not an expert.  I have tried to understand the teleconnections science and I really struggle to advance beyond say level 2 (out of 10!). I understand enough to realise that the teleconnections science is becoming the most vital part of the wider meteorological picture and is becoming (and will be) responsible for further enormous advances in the accuracy of short and long-term forecasting as well as in the understanding of the world’s climate and climate change. It includes major advances in the relationships between and impacts of oscillations from the tropics to the poles (ENSO, MJO, QBO, NAO and AO etc), the stratosphere (and how it links with the troposphere), sea ice and snow cover extent, ocean currents and solar activity (sun spots, solar flares, impacts on the earth’s magnetic field etc) and various other factors.

I suspect that much of the criticism comes from a lack of understanding of this subject. As I said, I hardly understand it myself but when I do not understand something I do not take dismissive action,  I try to embrace it and learn more about it. From my limited understanding I can see how important and useful this science is. I know that @Tamara will tell you that even she does not consider herself an expert! Most of what she has learnt is self-taught and she has read many papers and books on the subject and let’s say that she has built up a good understanding of at least the part of the subject (angular momentum and the oscillations) that drive the broad scale weather patterns and the model output. I think that many of us are highly impressed with her knowledge and the way she expresses it in her posts. I know that Tamara helped @Catacol in his early stages of learning about the subject and he has now built on this with his own self-teaching and willingness to learn. His new found knowledge is demonstrated in his excellent posts and we should all be grateful for all their regular contributions. I have the greatest respect for them and others like @Glacier Point and @chionomaniac and I will always read their posts very carefully.

I think that some of the more general criticism of long range weather forecasts (LRFs) is too closely linked with the teleconnection sciences. In fact this is where some major errors and incorrect assumptions are being made. LRFs are produced by taking account of many factors. Teleconnections play an important part, then computer models and other data,  as well as some human experience too. As Tamara and other specialists keep telling us “it’s the teleconnections that drive the computer models not the other way around”. If nothing else everyone needs to take this on board.  A computer model run is simply a complex mathematical calculation of current and predicted changes in the atmosphere. Vast numbers of calculations are done. Minor variations in the starting data can produce some very different outcomes. Each model produces many runs in order to explore this range of outcomes. The model can only be as good as the accuracy of its starting and input data. Although there are constant tweaks and improvements and frequent model upgrades each model has its own inherent biases and vulnerabilities. I am not certain to what extent the various teleconnections are factored in to each model but I’m sure that at least some account is taken of them. We often see a sudden change of the output even encroaching into the more reliable periods at times. When most or all of the models start showing this change, then we often comment that “they must be on to something”.  This has been happening with some of the broader scale pattern changes coming up. The trouble is that the models often have quite a lag time in taking these changes on board.  For example the PNA predicted to go negative and then positive again. During this, let’s call it, “transitional phase”, the models’ output often becomes particularly variable as it explores the new range of possible outcomes. Sometime they lurch from one extreme to the other. I think the last 3 GEM control runs (yesterday’s 0z and 12z output and today’s 0z output) went from the warmest, to the coldest and back to the warmest of the runs produced by “all” the models!   

Now I do not want to make Tamara blush but she has been given nowhere near enough credit for the accuracy of her posts both last winter and this winter so far. Going back to mid-November 2016 when the LRFs were forecasting considerable blocking with plenty of HLB and a generally colder than average period through much of December. This showed up in the extended model runs and the MetO 15-30 days outlooks. Tamara (with her usual degree of care and caution) and GP (rather more bullishly) initially supported this general outlook. Then Tamara, several weeks before the LRFs were watered down and well before the eye candy on the models changed to something much less appetising (for coldies), explained that we would see blocking but it would be almost entirely MLB with temps closer to average but still a lot of dry weather. This turned out to be spot on. All the models then went for a full on zonal flow to start just after mid-December (2016) and the longer term output showed this continuing through into January. Tamara told us that she didn’t see more than a short period with the Atlantic breaking through before the MLB reasserted itself. Sure enough the mild westerlies lasted for less than a week!

Then we had all the talk of a proper SSW later on in January (2017) with influences in February. The longer term model output started to show a lot more HLB and many (including me) thought that we would go into a prolonged cold spell. Again Tamara felt that any SSW, if it came at all, would be much later. She also thought that any cold spell would be a fairly brief one (and then she correctly pointed to some colder weather in early Spring). Meanwhile most of us got very excited about the widely modelled easterly for early February. I got very hung up about the huge European cold block and produced daily posts with European temperature updates. Tamara posted that she felt that all this was just “surface cold” and it would be pushed away in due course. We did get an easterly for several days and briefly with sub -8c 850s, dew points close to or just below 0c. All the forecasted snow (from the models) came to not much more than a dusting with many places seeing only rain or sleet. Just as Tamara said, it had gone as quickly as it had arrived and it certainly did not deliver any significant prolonged cold weather.

So far this winter Tamara  (+ her specialist teleconnection fellow posters) have been almost spot on.  They initially told us that we would be likely to see a fairly typical weak La Nina driven winter with a colder than average first third and probably much more unsettled and milder middle part and perhaps a colder end (with a possible SSW). Then the teleconnection signals started to indicate some slight changes with a likely departure from a more typical Nina winter (I think with an east based Pacific Nina – but do not ask me why that makes such a difference!) to a generally more blocked pattern with colder than average conditions but with some milder interludes likely. Just recently, the teleconnection signals have indicated a temporary weakening of  the PNA with a brief flatter pattern prior to re-amplification and a likely return to colder conditions with not only further possible northerlies but an increasing indication of height rises to our north-east and an eventual evolution to an easterly.

Nothing is set in stone and Tamara and her colleagues are still carefully monitoring the signals. So far, there has been nothing to suggest that this evolution is not a realistic possibility. They will not always get it right but they will tell us as soon as they see any likely changes. Tamara takes great care to explain the possible downsides. Many on here did not want to believe her last winter as they were chasing the usual cold and snowy set up but if one takes the emotion out of it all, they have been well ahead of the curve almost all of the time. The message is to read their posts very carefully and do not take anything out of context. Any words of caution must be taken on board. So, some of you more sceptical guys should do what I do, accept that the teleconnection signals can frequently give us an early opportunity of seeing future broader pattern changes and then we can get even more interest in looking for these signals being picked up by the models.

Phew, that’s a load off my mind – I’m exhausted and I still need to produce my Arctic update!

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:

During last July the Arctic sea ice extent briefly hit a new low for that time of the year challenging the record lows seen in 2102. It reached its lowest point in mid-September when it was the fourth lowest on record. There was a limited recovery during October and through November and now only 2016 was lower at this stage of the winter as can be seen in the charts below:

The first three charts show the current extent of the sea ice as on December 11^th (although I believe that these particular charts automatically update even after I’ve posted them!). This is in relation to the 30 year means. The last chart  which compares each of the last six winters to the mean is updated monthly and now includes the November data:

                         

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

The latest monthly update (for December) was published last week and makes a fascinating read. Please use the link below which also shows all the charts:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Arctic Current Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):

                    SSTs  December 11^th              SST Anomalies December 11^th

                               

Source: NOAA Marine Modelling and Analysis Branch

The anomaly chart shows that there is a wide area of open water in the Arctic with well above surface temperatures. The SSTs need to be below the -1.5c threshold (the purple colour). Sea water will start to freeze when it is below -2c but that is for normal salinity. There is slightly lower salt content in the Arctic (mainly due to ice melt) and the threshold is nearer to -1.5c. There are some areas with SSTs well above freezing and the current anomalies are widely over 4c above average and up to 7c above in places. Unfortunately, although the SSTs have fallen very slightly in the last couple of weeks (the normal seasonal decline through the winter months),  some of the anomalies have increased – eg: now over +8c around Svalbard. These higher SSTs are a legacy of the 2015-16 winter when the Atlantic jet stream powered well into the Arctic for much of the first half of winter. This shifted much warmer than average currents right up to the edge of the ice sheet. This strong anomaly has persisted for 3 years and is exceptional and comes on top of the already generally warming Arctic. Unless the SSTs reduce substantially, the anomalies might be carried through to next summer and into a fourth winter.  There is a small area of the North Atlantic, mostly south-east of Greenland with a negative anomaly.

Svalbard 10 Day Maximum Temperature Forecast (December 12^th) :

The bad news is that the forecast temperatures for the Svalbard stations that I monitor are set to rise again towards the end of the 9 day period.  This is partly due to there being some snowfall in the forecast but overall these are very disappointing predicted readings.  I summarise the  D1, D5 and D9 values for each station with the previous values (from the December 3rd forecast) immediately below. I also show the website link for each station so that you can view the full details.

 

Central/West Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

December 12th Forecast:   Dec 13th   -2c;  Dec 17th  -9c;  Dec 21st -2c;

December 3rd Forecast:   Dec 4th   -3c;  Dec 8th  -9c;  Dec 12th -9c;

 

North-West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-Ålesund/forecast.pdf

December 12th Forecast:   Dec 13th   -6c;  Dec 17th  -12c;  Dec 21st -3c;

December 3rd Forecast:   Dec 4th   -4c;  Dec 8th  -14c;  Dec 12th -11c;

 

Central South Svalbard – Sveagruva:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

December 12th Forecast:   Dec 13th   -3c;  Dec 17th  -14;  Dec 21st -6c;

December 3rd Forecast:   Dec 4th   -3c;  Dec 8th  -14c;  Dec 12th -15c;

Please note that the links above will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at quite short range. 

The temperatures were above freezing 2 weeks ago but fell below freezing towards the end of November. They are continuing to fallen back further and will not far off their 30 year means for this time of year later this week. They look set to remain at these lower levels for at least the next 10 days. To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

 

Svalbard Airport,  Longyearbyen Temperatures for the Last 30 days:    

 

Svalbard Airport,  Longyearbyen Temperatures for the Last 13 months:  

 

Svalbard Airport,  Longyearbyen Temperatures, Precipitation and Wind for the Last 13 months days: 

Tabular view for temperature and precipitation per month

Months	Temperature				Precipitation			Wind
	Average	Normal	Warmest	Coldest	Total	Normal	Highest  daily value	Average	Strongest  wind
Nov 2017	-3.6°C	-10.3°C	2.5°C Nov 15	-13.4°C Nov 29	1.9 mm	15.0 mm	0.6 mm Nov 28	6.7 m/s	17.7 m/s Nov 11
Oct 2017	0.5°C	-5.5°C	7.7°C Oct 23	-5.8°C Oct 25	27.4 mm	14.0 mm	18.9 mm Oct 24	5.1 m/s	13.2 m/s Oct 23
Sep 2017	4.9°C	0.3°C	13.3°C Sep 26	-0.7°C Sep 1	20.8 mm	20.0 mm	5.3 mm Sep 19	4.9 m/s	16.3 m/s Sep 23
Aug 2017	6.1°C	4.7°C	11.6°C Aug 2	0.2°C Aug 27	16.2 mm	23.0 mm	7.4 mm Aug 29	4.7 m/s	14.6 m/s Aug 16
Jul 2017	6.9°C	5.9°C	13.1°C Jul 18	2.7°C Jul 4	20.4 mm	18.0 mm	6.5 mm Jul 14	5.5 m/s	13.6 m/s Jul 14
Jun 2017	4.6°C	2.0°C	9.0°C Jun 11	-0.2°C Jun 5	5.6 mm	10.0 mm	1.9 mm Jun 17	4.3 m/s	11.6 m/s Jun 29
May 2017	-3.9°C	-4.1°C	7.3°C May 31	-11.5°C May 9	5.3 mm	6.0 mm	1.7 mm May 15	4.1 m/s	13.9 m/s May 15
Apr 2017	-8.3°C	-12.2°C	2.9°C Apr 29	-21.3°C Apr 1	6.2 mm	11.0 mm	2.5 mm Apr 28	5.5 m/s	15.0 m/s Apr 5
Mar 2017	-11.8°C	-15.7°C	2.5°C Mar 14	-23.5°C Mar 18	15.8 mm	23.0 mm	2.8 mm Mar 7	5.6 m/s	15.6 m/s Mar 26
Feb 2017	-6.6°C	-16.2°C	5.9°C Feb 6	-21.3°C Feb 18	45.4 mm	19.0 mm	10.6 mm Feb 8	6.5 m/s	21.0 m/s Feb 21
Jan 2017	-10.3°C	-15.3°C	2.2°C Jan 16	-21.1°C Jan 31	24.6 mm	15.0 mm	8.7 mm Jan 19	6.3 m/s	17.9 m/s Jan 17
Dec 2016	-6.0°C	-13.4°C	4.8°C Dec 21	-18.5°C Dec 8	22.7 mm	16.0 mm	3.4 mm Dec 20	5.9 m/s	24.8 m/s Dec 29
Nov 2016	-0.7°C	-10.3°C	6.4°C Nov 8	-11.1°C Nov 27	58.0 mm	15.0 mm	41.7 mm Nov 8	5.7 m/s	16.5 m/s Nov 8

  

The last two chart/table show monthly means and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during the last 13 months. This has just been updated with the November 2017 figures when the monthly average temperatures were 6.7c above the 30 year mean.  Svalbard has been seeing “maximum” temperatures often running at 5c to 10c above their long term average throughout most of the last 4 years. This is reflective of the warming Arctic and the near record low sea ice cover.

Overall, the temperature profile of the Arctic is extremely worrying.  The second lowest ice-build up on record, record high sea surface temperatures with the anomalies going even higher in some parts and high temperature around Svalbard.

When I review the Arctic temperatures again next week, I’ll have a closer look at the predicted surface and 850 temperatures going further forward.

 

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[igloo]

32 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

+10c right now which is not far off +20c above normal

yes i no it can get cold a few years back i was visiting my brothers in edmonton for christmas and it was -20c for a few days its okay for one or two days but nothing more i hope you enjoy your heatwave at 10c 

Edited December 12, 2017 by igloo

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well the December daffs had better make the most of it Frosty it's only passing through on its ways to meet up with its Russian friend for a winter holiday in Scandinavia. 

Hope you're right

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Overall, the temperature profile of the Arctic is extremely worrying.  The second lowest ice-build up on record, record high sea surface temperatures with the anomalies going even higher in some parts and high temperature around Svalbard.

Totally agree BB62-63. Very worrying. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Totally agree BB62-63. Very worrying. 

Not sure its that worrying, we can overcome that, whilst I don't actually subscribe to this but a lot of experts suggest record sea ice melt seasons can lead to an increased chance of blocking, anyway weve just shown we can stil get -10c with a Northerly early in season.

[Methuselah]

I'm not sure that I'm seeing the signs I was looking for, here?

[SW Saltire]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure its that worrying, we can overcome that, whilst I don't actually subscribe to this but a lot of experts suggest record sea ice melt seasons can lead to an increased chance of blocking, anyway weve just shown we can stil get -10c with a Northerly early in season.

Not worrying that if the trend continues places like Svalbard will only be frozen for 3/4 months a year? 

They'll be no cold to tap into in years to come.

[Chesil View]

Great post BB62/63.

There is no doubt that without trying to understand the teleconnections then one will never enhance ones meteorological knowledge or indeed understand why the models show what they do.

It is quite complex which I thinks puts people off  especially because it's not always a one and one equals two process.

one teleconnector can react with another in a certain way but also in a different way depending on the strength of of the first and so on.

 You don,t need a degree to try and make a stab at understanding some of the basics of this though. I left school at 16 with just 4 o levels but by listening to the likes of GP,Tamara, Catacol, Blue army and Nick Sussex I have picked up some knowledge and my understanding what happens and why it happens even when it's not what I want to happen has improved beyond all recognition to when I first joined NW and TWO.

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure its that worrying, we can overcome that, whilst I don't actually subscribe to this but a lot of experts suggest record sea ice melt seasons can lead to an increased chance of blocking, anyway weve just shown we can stil get -10c with a Northerly early in season.

I'm not talking about the effect, or not, on our winters Feb. I'm worried about the planet. Having an arctic region that warm is massively worrying. But I'll leave it there as we're going off topic

[knocker]

The ecm det run this evening is more or less showing the pattern  lndictated  by this mornings anomalies before the upstream pattern change and the corresponding knock on affect downstream. If that continues to be indicated this evening then we should see a developing trough in the eastern Pacific, stronger Alaskan ridge of over the Pole and a reorientation of the Canadian vortex lobe and associated  troughs which would suppress the Azones HP being shown here. Ergo a strong westerly upper flow tending unsettled weather with Temps in general around normal, perhaps slightly above

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z and the GEFS 12z mean it seems like milder weather with high pressure taking control is the form horse next week.

Edited December 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ECM is one of those if only it were summer runs

[blizzard81]

I must say things are looking a little grim after this weekend. Too much energy riding over the top of the azores high on the ecm so we don't even get the benefit of it sitting on top of us which would bring something seasonal at least. Just checked into the strat thread and even that isn't looking so rosy now. I have got to say it is beginning to feel like groundhog day in here at this time of year. Always seems to be much promise on the teleconnections front for late December into Jan. This then gets put back and back until before we know it Spring has sprung. Let's hope this year will be different.

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z and the GEFS 12z mean it seems like milder weather with high pressure taking control is the form horse next week.

Yeah I think high pressure becoming the form horse but probably sitting closer to the UK. Not overly mild at least for the south anyways, fog and frost with highs around 5/6 (2/3 under fog patches) 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended maintaining the milder flow ground conditions will obviously depend on where the high sits 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I must say things are looking a little grim after this weekend. Too much energy riding over the top of the azores high on the ecm so we don't even get the benefit of it sitting on top of us which would bring something seasonal at least. Just checked into the strat thread and even that isn't looking so rosy now. I have got to say it is beginning to feel like groundhog day in here at this time of year. Always seems to be much promise on the teleconnections front for late December into Jan. This then gets put back and back until before we know it Spring has sprung. Let's hope this year will be different.

But, as I've pointed out earlier on, the high has shifted northwards compared to yesterday. If it continues to do that we might find ourselves foggy and frosty. Admittedly, at the moment, it does look like it's going to settle at exactly the right place to bring us a whole load of nothing. I'd rather it be right over us (possible frost and fog) or way south to let in some lively Atlantic interest. If we can't have snow/ice/frost, let's have some heavy rain and gales

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

Not worrying that if the trend continues places like Svalbard will only be frozen for 3/4 months a year? 

They'll be no cold to tap into in years to come.

That wil be countered by LIA - starting within 15 years I believe.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah I think high pressure becoming the form horse but probably sitting closer to the UK. Not overly mild at least for the south anyways, fog and frost with highs around 5/6 (2/3 under fog patches) 

It all depends on cloud cover, looks like moist tropical maritime air feeding around the high and over the uk next week with limited sunshine but the surface conditions still have plenty of time to change..

[SnowBallz]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I think the algorithm assumes all snow falling settles and accumulates 

some hefty showers due tomorrow afternoon and evening !!

Most of the algorithms I’ve looked over keep it fairly simple: precipitation intensity over time period = rough depth calculation. I’m yet to see any model which introduces soil temperature feedback to calculate an accurate melt rate, and therefore a modifiable depth (assuming further snow was within the forecast) UKV has an experimental field [water_equiv_lapse] which tries to establish this but I wouldn’t say it’s conclusive, reliable or widely used within output.

SB

[igloo]

12 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah I think high pressure becoming the form horse but probably sitting closer to the UK. Not overly mild at least for the south anyways, fog and frost with highs around 5/6 (2/3 under fog patches) 

its still some way of any HP could easily be 500 miles further north nearer the time which would make a big diff in weather and temps for us but on the other hand any further south and we are in the dreaded bartlett territory

Edited December 12, 2017 by igloo

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That wil be countered by LIA - starting within 15 years I believe.

Ah, that, the good old LIA...I can still remember when it was due to start in 2007...if you ask me, LIA-predictions are about as accurate as Jehova's Witlesses' Doomsday prophesies...?

[Higher Ground]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

I'm not talking about the effect, or not, on our winters Feb. I'm worried about the planet. Having an arctic region that warm is massively worrying. But I'll leave it there as we're going off topic

You might also want to look at Arctic summer snow cover, which was the highest for over 10 years this June and July, and the highest for nearly 20 years this August https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=8

Also Arctic ice volume which is still up if anything since 2011 http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/cryosat_piomas_awi_ts.2011.2017.Oct.png

How can you be sure high sea surface temperatures around Svalbard aren't a release of heat (cooling), rather than a warming? Bear in mind that the North Atlantic at 0-700m depth is still the coldest for 15 years despite an upturn this year www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#North%20Atlantic%20(60-0W,%2030-65N)%20heat%20content%200-700%20m%20depth

Not wanting to go off topic either, just trying to add some more pieces to the jigsaw in understanding how it's still possible to get severe cold despite longer term warming.

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Ah, that, the good old LIA...I can still remember when it was due to start in 2007...if you ask me, LIA-predictions are about as accurate as Jehova's Witlesses' Doomsday prophesies...?

Pretty sure it has always been forecast close to the solar cycles and the predicted slumber of the sun, Pete. Think 2020 has been the approximate start date for many years now.

[LRD]

The GEM (yes, I know) offers more northwards movement of the High

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, Higher Ground said:

You might also want to look at Arctic summer snow cover, which was the highest for over 10 years this June and July, and the highest for nearly 20 years this August https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=8

Also Arctic ice volume which is still up if anything since 2011 http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/cryosat_piomas_awi_ts.2011.2017.Oct.png

How can you be sure high sea surface temperatures around Svalbard aren't a release of heat (cooling), rather than a warming? Bear in mind that the North Atlantic at 0-700m depth is still the coldest for 15 years despite an upturn this year www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#North%20Atlantic%20(60-0W,%2030-65N)%20heat%20content%200-700%20m%20depth

Not wanting to go off topic either, just trying to add some more pieces to the jigsaw in understanding how it's still possible to get severe cold despite longer term warming.

 

 

 

So the arctic isn't warming then? Is that what you're saying? Or have I misunderstood? As I say severe cold or not (in the UK) a warming arctic is a worry

Edited December 12, 2017 by LRD