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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

One straw I can grasp this morning is a comparison to winter 1990/91:

Major December snow event - check (remember Dec 1990!)

Milder period after that. (Check out Christmas Day 1990, yuk). 

And keep your fingers and toes and everything else crossed for another Feb 1991!

The output is not great at the moment if it's cold your after but without wanting to go over old ground there are still a few straws to clutch in various places. 

Hold on you slated me for saying pretty much what you just posted!!

Anyway, yes i agree patience is going to be required 

Hopefully any Atlantic weather will be brief :)

I still think there is potential for a decent high ground snow event for pennine area tomorrow night..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

You just know its winter in the UK when the words straw clutching appear..anyway, I've enjoyed the BIG FREEEZE as the media have called it..bit of an exaggeration but its certainly a headline grabber:D The models show some more chilly weather to come this week before something more typical from the atlantic in the run up to crimbo but there's a very long way to go, things could look a lot better in the new year.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
43 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Pretty awful NWP output this morning. Knocker and Sidney must be thrilled!!

ECH1-240.GIF

Is there any light at the of the mild tunnel?

Yeh, the post directly above yours.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

I think it is a bit early still to speak with absolute certainty though. Give it another five or six days and I'd be more inclined to agree with you if the output still indicates mild. Which brings me a question for anyone to answer if they can. What weather websites use ECM output for their forecasts, I use yr.no to see what ECM is showing but does anyone know of others?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking us to the start of the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
15 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Even if we have seen worse christmas weather  (2006, 2013, 2015 etc) it's still pretty clear now that it will be a mild christmas this year and snow cover below average values, GFS keeps trolling us with cold charts but ECM is most of the time the only realistic model.

If you can say that in 100 % confidence then you should put the lottery on at the weekend. The models are so volatile at the moment you can't even trust this weekend. I expect to see big changes appearing soon! But at the end of the day nobody really knows what Christmas will be like.

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking close to the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

To quote Mr Hammond..."The models are showing us one thing,whilst experience is telling us something rather different"

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Posted
  • Location: Crick northants
  • Location: Crick northants
16 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. 

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Thanks Paul

interesting times indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

So the model output overnight doesn’t look great. But haven’t people been reading the updates from GP Tamara etc. We are going to see wild swings in the output. We were always due a milder faze upto xmas week. Which is what the models are now starting to show. But flipping heck it’s only the 12th of Dec we have another 3 months of winter to go. And the phrase straw clutch is been banded about with the output. Unbelievable Jeff. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Intriguing from Mr Hammond - increasing number of models showing mild westerlies won't last. Let's hope the METOs super computers show some different to the last few GFS FIs. Anyway, another cold shot from the north on Fri could bring yet more snow and frost, and with about 50 percent of England getting snow over the last few days,  and -13c all before mid Dec - that's pretty darn good so far in my eyes !! 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A very poor start for coldies today with a hideous looking upstream pattern!

We've lost the shortwave which could track se through the UK and although one forms its simply too flat upstream to get that se and shear some energy away from the advancing tide of doom!

I think the absolute best in terms of hanging onto some surface cold is the Euro high getting far enough north, apart from that the GEFS look like a bloodbath with any colder solutions within T240hrs meeting a grisly end at the hands of the menacing PV to the nw!

The ECM ensembles for London do show the op once again one of the mildest solutions at times and in terms of pressure a lot of ensembles have higher values than the op so suggestions high pressure could get further north but its about the orientation and placement in terms of hanging onto a surface feed from mainland Europe.

Before that as we head towards the weekend another colder few days with a chance of something wintry so its not all bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended maintaining the milder set up with the driest weather in the south and the wetter conditions further north

ukm2.2017121900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.418a21bcb362af7366802c8b2f9dc06e.png

The milder air is arriving pretty much bang on the time the ensembles have shown for a good few day's now

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.cf8d9488f9eae3c11e77af8016713317.GIF

ECM at D10

ECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.1e790380f3c367c9e92650aad4d44fb6.png

The ECM mean supporting the idea of the milder conditions taking us to the start of the Christmas period at least

ECMAVGEU00_240_2.thumb.png.619263bd309ab5874d4252838167bf73.png

:)

 

Yes Gavin it's been showing for some time on the ensembles, a case of grin and bear it for coldies until next time.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
30 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. 

https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Although an interesting blog, it was from 4 day ago I think. The models are showing a less cold trend now. Is this personal or professional experience he's stating. It''s a bit of straw clutches I think and I could say experience tells me I think at some point it will get cold this winter. This is no way a dig at you in anyway at all ?. I just think realistically the way the high pressure is setting up to our southwest and the way pv is setting up I think we could be in for a flattish zonal period after next week and personal experience tell me not to try and guess anything after that ?

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Positive AO and NAO on the GEM, GEFS and ECM EPS on the run up to Christmas. Negative to neutral PNA. This isn't indicative of a colder pattern for Western Europe.

It looks like there will be a milder phase after this colder one passes (yes, the UK is still under colder air, in case you forgot), but the duration is open to question and while still 13 days out, a lot can still change before the 25th.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Intriguing from Mr Hammond - increasing number of models showing mild westerlies won't last. Let's hope the METOs super computers show some different to the last few GFS FIs. Anyway, another cold shot from the north on Fri could bring yet more snow and frost, and with about 50 percent of England getting snow over the last few days,  and -13c all before mid Dec - that's pretty darn good so far in my eyes !! 

Models have flipped since he wrote that.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
8 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Although an interesting blog, it was from 4 day ago I think. The models are showing a less cold trend now. Is this personal or professional experience he's stating. It''s a bit of straw clutches I think and I could say experience tells me I think at some point it will get cold this winter. This is no way a dig at you in anyway at all ?. I just think realistically the way the high pressure is setting up to our southwest and the way pv is setting up I think we could be in for a flattish zonal period after next week and personal experience tell me not to try and guess anything after that ?

Yes the blog is from 4 days ago, but he Tweeted a link at about 07:45 this morning stating he has updated it with the bits in bold. So the bold bits are from today.

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/940490098197528576

Edited by Paul_1978
Added link to clarify the blog update was this morning.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The two 500 mb anomaly charts still available to me do suggest that over the next few days the upper air pattern is going to turn into a quite strong westerly.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS suite shows a different idea with the ridge-trough giving way to ridging over the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

Take your pick. I would suggest that the westerly idea will probably be the one we see develop, possibly with fairly active surface systems at times?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Models have flipped since he wrote that.

Not the bold bit that mentions the bit I wrote

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Models have flipped since he wrote that.

No, the bold bits of the blog were updated this morning.

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/940490098197528576

Edited by Paul_1978
Added link to clarify the blog update was this morning.
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

u_60N_10hpa.png

 

And as icing on top the stratosphere is picking up 

 

(the forum software changes to the wrong picture, trust me it's bad) 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

No, the bold bits of the blog were updated this morning.

Anyway, I think the point is its an opinion. With the current model set up, and this is for all of them, it would be near on impossible to build heights to our east or north east with so much energy heading that way next week. 

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