Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[Chesil View]

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time

Edited December 11, 2017 by northwestsnow

[LRD]

Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

I'm guessing the models that the METO have access to (but that we don't) have been seeing something blocky as the METO updates have been hinting at it. But, unfortunately it keeps getting pushed back. The blocked theme was first touted at Christmas which would have been marvellous. Now it's the new year

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to a recent  poster in the Southwest regional thread. 

Fergie quoted as saying Glosea going for blocked Jan and the model is also keen on strat warming event late December/early Jan.

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts ? 

[stratty]

Just now, LRD said:

I'm guessing the models that the METO have access to (but that we don't) have been seeing something blocky as the METO updates have been hinting at it. But, unfortunately it keeps getting pushed back. The blocked theme was first touted at Christmas which would have been marvellous. Now it's the new year

lol ...........wasn't it originally a year ago! 

[stratty]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts ? 

.......great minds.......! 

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time

It did this last year too, it kept postponing for literally 2 months. This warming has been postponed 3 days now (Saturday is was modeled for the 23rd). I would take it with a pinch of salt 

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, stratty said:

lol ...........wasn't it originally a year ago! 

Yup very true. To be fair to GLOSEA, though, I think last winter was the first time you could say it bust. And, at times in January it was a near miss for deep cold for the UK. I know a near miss may as well be a massive miss but, in terms of forecasting global weather patterns, it wasn't that far out. 

They've got to keep pushing and testing the science though.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It did this last year too, it kept postponing for literally 2 months. This warming has been postponed 3 days now (Saturday is was modeled for the 23rd). I would take it with a pinch of salt 

Yes i know

Hope fully this time it will be more accurate!

Think this time we have GLOSEA sniffing around a similar prognosis- 

Lets see- i'm hopeful things will look differently in around 2 weeks time

[bluearmy]

glosea was the only model that didn't predict an ssw last winter when gfs, gefs and eps were. I think it's the best model in the strat

i wouldn't pay too much attention to gfs and gefs 10hpa forecasts in fi until we see them consistently getting below T300

I have some thoughts as to how a SSW may happen and I don't see it quite happening in December 

Edited December 11, 2017 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensembles for London some room there to extend the cold for a few days. The op is  at the top end of solutions towards days 6 and 7 although  good support for milder weather after that.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All... Cant help thinking that the ecm is far to progressive with the Atlantic return, gfs is a coldies friend ,ecm gives the coldies a Cold Shoulder

[LRD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

glosea was the only model that didn't predict an ssw last winter when gfs, gefs and eps were. I think it's the best model in the strat

Mind might be playing tricks but didn't GLOSEA call a cold winter back in Nov 16? That's what triggered all those wintry long rangers that METO were coming out with late autumn/early winter last year

I agree with your comment, in general, though

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is sniffing around a warming in the strat around christmas time

Yes perhaps something akin to Jan 2013 may occur, but a week or so earlier, we saw major warming in early Jan and then a 2 week very cold snowy spell, leading into the cold Feb and exceptional March, Indeed late Nov 2012 - first part of Dec 2012 was generally cold, similiar to now, nothing exceptional but wintry (though I wouldn't want a repeat of christmas 2012 which was cloudy wet and mild, miserable).

Anyhow back to the models, ECM showing a resurgent atlantic and a mild SW fetch, GFS less so. The theme of recent weeks has been amplification, barely any long fetch westerly/southwesterly, and I don't see any major change in overall base state of northern hemisphere to suggest a long spell of such weather, a temporary phase may occur, before christmas, and then all eyes to the NE, expecting height rises here to begin to influence things. For snow cold lovers, what a pity we couldn't have fast forwarded the clock 2 weeks yesterday, a snowy christmas eve and snow on the ground for christmas - would have been perfect. 

[ArHu3]

The plume for de Bilt still very uncertain after the 17th, it has been like this for 4 days at least but I think we see more and more members choosing a cold solution 

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles for London some room there to extend the cold for a few days. The op is  at the top end of solutions towards days 6 and 7 although  good support for milder weather after that.

 

Yes.

Although a barrage, of un-doing after friday'i suspect?!.

Certainly be worth an'eye on the gfs op-18z...

Will-it won't it...

Follow its sister suite(12z)...

or another embarrassing 'outlier'..

From the high(supposed data12z!!!)

Edited December 11, 2017 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has a deep low tracking somewhere around Iceland with the UK in a southwesterly giving some rain mainly in the south and west

[Borei]

34 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts ? 

I think, to be fair, that there was extensive blocking, although not quite as far enough north as we may have anticipated.   

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a deep low tracking somewhere around Iceland with the UK in a southwesterly giving some rain mainly in the south and west

Stretching from Spain to the Eastern Seaboard of North America, the Azores High is absolutely huge and bloated on that chart. Like a sumo wrestler who has really let himself go. The '5 bellies' high

Edited December 11, 2017 by LRD

[blizzard81]

Looks to be a fair few easterlies on the ecm ens for debilt 

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

The plume for de Bilt still very uncertain after the 17th, it has been like this for 4 days at least but I think we see more and more members choosing a cold solution 

Theres opt' for colder soulutions..

Although a messy way there!!!!

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

glosea was the only model that didn't predict an ssw last winter when gfs, gefs and eps were. I think it's the best model in the strat

i wouldn't pay too much attention to gfs and gefs 10hpa forecasts in fi until we see them consistently getting below T300

I have some thoughts as to how a SSW may happen and I don't see it quite happening in December 

If you never predict a ssw warming, you'll be right for 2 out of 3 winters but if you try to predict them you also need to predict them at the right time. A low sensitivity for forecasting a ssw is a pretty safe bet

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, LRD said:

Mind might be playing tricks but didn't GLOSEA call a cold winter back in Nov 16? That's what triggered all those wintry long rangers that METO were coming out with late autumn/early winter last year

I agree with your comment, in general, though

Actually my mind playing tricks - glosea this time last Dec had a cluster of runs predicting a SSW but it fell away fairly quickly.  Incidentally, Ian's tweet says warming is 'possible' on some modelling. That's hardly a cast iron forecast! 

[feb1991blizzard]

My memory is seriously playing tricks with me as I thought we did have an SSW last year, just much later and that's what gave us that half baked 24 hour Easterly where I had sleety / rainy / wet snow with sub -8c 850s, the one where it was never going to be a good cold spell because the 500mb heights just weren't low enough.

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My memory is seriously playing tricks with me as I thought we did have an SSW last year, just much later and that's what gave us that half baked 24 hour Easterly where I had sleety / rainy / wet snow with sub -8c 850s, the one where it was never going to be a good cold spell because the 500mb heights just weren't low enough.

It turned out to be a very early final warming, not a midwinter ssw