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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes.

No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.

Indeed ,just go back a few days and the models have really underplayed this cold snowy spell for southern parts of the UK ,we could see a minus 14c for the Midlands over the snow Fields by Tuesday morning something even when viewing the upcoming cold spell which I really never expected, this cold spell for me has been told to go round to some Friends for beans on toast and getting a banquet instead:D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not sure where the idea of a raging Atlantic originated. I think a zonal pattern is being indicated in the medium term but in the eastern Atlantic the energy is being spread courtesy of the HP block in the east and positive anomalies to the NW and the trough running south to our east. The key may well be if the Azones ridges a little close to the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
37 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Interesting scatter again on the ensembles, from a relatively short way out too. A lot of milder members from T +7 days but then most are colder than the operational further out beyond T +10 days and into Christmas:

5a2d8338a53a7_ScreenShot2017-12-10at18_55_04.thumb.png.12dda44b4b3414c52cd733d5ad3c3c0f.png

For at least 4 days we have seen a large increase in uncertainty after the 17th. So interesting times, probably even need 2 more days of uncertainty before the models can give us an answer 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
7 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

As much as im sure most of us would love a 62/63 style freeze for the next 3 months its highly unlikely to happen, mild spells will occur and the Atlantic will always be trying to knock at the door, but theres plenty of time yet for the cold to return this winter. 

In the short term, some very cold temperatures over the next couple of days especially Tuesday

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

A 62/63 winter so I'm told was the coldest for 240 years which really was very freaky. There are lots of variations of winter for the UK but you can get a damn good winter without the severity of that infamous winter. As far as I'm concerned the winter has started on a high note for me......can it continue , looks very interesting viewing in the days ahead:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes.

No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.

3

Indeed, I'm of the belief, the exact opposite will happen and result in a rather memorable period of weather during this December. I hinted at this in last night's post here. As for reading the stratospheric signals and such complexities, I'll leave that to others, more knowledgeable on those matters, such as your good self. With -14c projected overnight on Tuesday morning over the snowfields, travel chaos through icy roads etc. and the more snow chances yet to come as hinted at by AJ above. It's pretty memorable already, to be fair. It's as if the Express headlines have actually come true for at least a couple of days this winter, shame about the other 2,000 headlines prior. A mild blip on Wednesday with some rain and wind about once again, but aside from that six out of the seven days will be chilly for all, very cold for a few with ICE days thrown in. ENJOY!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

There is a growing trend going into the medium term that there will be a switch to a more zonal spell of weather. Little evidence to doubt that now. The only question in my mind is what will be the duration of this zonal phase. 

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Just now, West is Best said:

Folks, my one word of advice from someone who once had their fingers frostbitten ... nothing is nailed on or certain 7 days out. A week ago someone nameless on here said that we were definitely in for a mild week. The models are not only at variance amongst themselves but there's huge ensemble scatter e.g. look at the variety of perturbations on the GFS12z:

5a2d8e6ce1745_ScreenShot2017-12-10at18_55_04.thumb.png.bf125afddbbcb89e460749a43488f807.png

 

We've all done it: been convinced of a pattern, be that cold or hot but unless I see an absolutely rock solid blocking high e.g. the Bartlett slug or a Euro high or, for us cold fans, a rock solid Greenland high or Scandi high then I would urge than anything can happen beyond T144 and nothing is nailed on. So, for those who love snow and cold why not just enjoy the present? ;) 

Yeah GP, Tamara and others touched on this when they mentioned about moving into a new MJO phase. The models will continue to make a dogs dinner of it until at least mid next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah GP, Tamara and others touched on this when they mentioned about moving into a new MJO phase. The models will continue to make a dogs dinner of it until at least mid next week. 

Does anyone know the latest on the mjo. As far as I could understand, it looked as though things were looking favourable for us going forward?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Chart of the evening for coldies is JMA day 8. 

Incidentally, ecm runs that little system along s England Thursday night which has some snowfall on its n edge 

not quite getting the concern for the outlook being flatter. Even if it verifies, we live in the UK, not Canada! 

And that JMA is very similar to the gfs op.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well after the frenzy eyes cast towards the models...

Not sure im as optimistic as others...growing signs of a resurgent jet stream ..this time much flatter and less emphasis on Atlantic ridging.

Ukmo looks flat at 144 and gfs-

Added to that fergies latest tweet/ musings do not inspire...

Hoping for some positives from the strat..do not want to see zonal winds increasing..!

You really are a pessimist aren't you NWS ;-)

You don't seem convinced by these apparent longer term signals then, and the fact that much of the model output at the minute (espcially the later stages) can be taken with a large pinch of salt?

I don't see Ian F's tweet at particularly concerning tbh. 

Edited by Paul_1978
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended once again showing a switch to something milder next weekend

t144

ukm2.2017121612_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ae1129813f3439be93993f22c339b18a.png

t168

ukm2.2017121712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.c04d677a59c107d97a3fa29917fcb6b7.png

Fingers crossed Gavin, the December daffs are struggling a bit so far:)

th.jpeg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

As others have said, looking through the GEFS full on zonality looks unlikely in the medium term. 

My guess is that once next weekend is over we end up with a mid lat high, so cool but nondescript weather with a slow return to a more mobile pattern towards new year and renewed heights over southern Europe. 

Others more learned than me will no doubt have other views but I don't sense any great likelihood of HLB over the next few weeks. Fairly standard fair coming up by the look of things.

That said, based on years of experience, local knowledge etc, I thought the likelihood off settling snow here today was close to zero and yet there is a decent covering outside tonight so one never can be certain.  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
24 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

And I bet that is short lived with another NWerly plunge immediately after

I can just see the (ecmwf)  plume(for the Netherlands)  but after the 17th I can see 90% of the ensemble going for mild zonal and the rest for (north) easterlies. It's not looking good for day 7 - 15

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
22 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

You really are a pessimist aren't you NWS ;-)

You don't seem convinced by these apparent longer term signals then, and the fact that much of the model output at the minute (espcially the later stages) can be taken with a large pinch of salt?

I don't see Ian F's tweet at particularly concerning tbh. 

I don't think he's a pessimist at all, more like a realist as it does look like we are on course for a phase of positive NAO with the northern arm of the jet cranking up in the run up to christmas (week 2)...the week ahead looks generally chilly though.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
44 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah GP, Tamara and others touched on this when they mentioned about moving into a new MJO phase. The models will continue to make a dogs dinner of it until at least mid next week. 

You hope of course that is the case or reason.  They made a dogs dinner last couple of weeks really so all to play for.  Incredible cold night time temps next few days.....-15c in the offing somewhere and sub -10c possible in England and Welsh Marches.... proper cold

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
26 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Entered phase 7 yesterday according to the RMM plots, whether it motors through to P8 and 1 remains to be seen, though perhaps at low amplitude according to some plots:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Phases 7/8/1 correlate to producing colder patterns, but there is obviously a lag of 10+ days from these phases, so may not be until later in December we may see changes, maybe in time for Xmas?

With a little poetic license one could easily argue that phase 7 is very similar to what the anomalies are indicating

DecemberPhase7all500mb.thumb.gif.663124610a0cd5e81b907516b85eaa98.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't think he's a pessimist at all, more like a realist as it does look like we are on course for a phase of positive NAO with the northern arm of the jet cranking up in the run up to christmas (week 2)...the week ahead looks generally chilly though.

The GEFS 12z mean mid range is a good example of the point I was making, it looks like typical atlantic driven weather beyond the next week or so with the pattern becoming flatter (zonal) milder with high pressure to the sw / s and lows to the nw...some fine spells further s / se closer to high pressure but becoming more generally unsettled as time goes on..positive NAO.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't think he's a pessimist at all, more like a realist as it does look like we are on course for a phase of positive NAO with the northern arm of the jet cranking up in the run up to christmas (week 2)...the week ahead looks generally chilly though.

Yes Frosty, some low minimums progged on the models for the next few days followed by a less cold westerly then another NWly/Nrly plunge next weekend. After that it could turn milder but who knows for how long? Given that at the moment the background signals are quite favourable then I don't see any reason for despondency. 

It would be great if we see a return to cold conditions before Christmas but it's far too early to make any judgement on that. Even the day 10 chart on the ECM only takes us to the 20th. Hopefully we will see a move towards something colder showing up in the later stages of the runs as the week progresses  - something which would perhaps tie in with the thoughts of some of the longer range experts?

Here's hoping at least. Although it's already been better than the whole of last winter anyway. :smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Well a couple more cold days to come with hard frosts over the snowfields-it's been a while since we could say that!

So we now look ahead and the rest of the week looking less cold but still fairly chilly until the end of the week but Atlantic fronts from mid-week finally modifying our pool of Arctic air.

The 12z runs still showing the demise of the upstream Alaskan ridge for a few days from around day 6.This frees up the Canadian trough to drive east flattening the Atlantic ridging,at least temporarily in week 2.The ens charts do show that after the north westerly next weekend we should expect a less cold westerly pattern for a few days

graphe3_1000_263_93___.gifgraphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=263&y=93&run=12

 

Day 9 means

gensnh-21-1-216.pngEDH1-216.GIF?10-0

The later eps/gefs do indicate the return of the Alaskan ridge quite quickly though so along with the ongoing cross polar +ve height anomalies we are certainly not looking at our usual mid December strong zonal pattern around the globe.

Time will tell whether that resurgent ridging upstream will translate into the Atlantic. 

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