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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I think the issue the modelling has is resolving what happens with all the energy in the Atlantic after the relaxation in the pos PNA allows the Canadian vortex to push west

during week 2 an big renewal of the pos PNA will encourage the Canadian trough to pull back and dig south to potentially allow an amplification in the Atlantic. However, with the strong Atlantic jet in place I think the models are struggling to work out where that amplification can occur. As I mused a couple of days ago, the fi op gfs (and the eps control) could be the ones to sniff this out ahead of the ens

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons

Heights towards the NE and a trough to the SE

Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Posted
  • Location: Rossendale, 212 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/Snow/Storms
  • Location: Rossendale, 212 ASL
22 minutes ago, Dennis said:

interesting

854.gif

Spirograph working wee??

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons

these are the High's and Low's on the NorthernHemisphere (Redlines are High's and Blue's are Lows) isobar

 

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31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons

Well said

No offence to technical posters on here and others of us who claim to have a little amateur knowledge, but there's a technical model thread for the cognoscenti. No excuse for making things obtuse elsewhere.

I'll butt out there.

No more snow here in Woking. Just a bit of snizzle.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
43 minutes ago, Dennis said:

these are the High's and Low's on the NorthernHemisphere (Redlines are High's and Blue's are Lows) isobar

 

The pedant in me is forced to state that this isn't a SLP chart but a heights one. (And it's the Canadian ens which as knocker says gets little exposure in here and its for day 8 which isn't currently really an unknown scenario ) 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Storm Ana looks pretty serious for Spain, Portugal and France this storm could also bring some heavy rain and temporary heavy snow to southern parts of England if it tracks further north than shown

GFSOPFR12_24_1.thumb.png.98f0ed567570e9b4039415e77f76735d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
47 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm dreaming (for yet another year?) of a White Christmas...:cold-emoji:

h850t850eu.png

i'm sure 2 weeks ago, we were shown to in raging South Westerlies? :-P

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Right - That's the snow out of the way lets get back to looking out into the mid-term with lust and hope. 

The models are hinting towards height rises over Scandinavia and have been doing so for a few days now.

Scandi.thumb.png.8dc6bb57297c2b289ba145a5fafaa373.png

Azores High ridging North-East towards developing heights over Scandi. No model has gone full scale with it yet because the GFS as usual revs up the Polar Vortex and pushes it all away. But, as long as continue to see the trend towards heights over Scandi as per the GFS 12z above, we've got something to look forward to. 

In the meantime, less cold towards the end of the week but certainly not what I'd call "mild".

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well after the frenzy eyes cast towards the models...

Not sure im as optimistic as others...growing signs of a resurgent jet stream ..this time much flatter and less emphasis on Atlantic ridging.

Ukmo looks flat at 144 and gfs-

Added to that fergies latest tweet/ musings do not inspire...

Hoping for some positives from the strat..do not want to see zonal winds increasing..!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Chart of the evening for coldies is JMA day 8. 

Incidentally, ecm runs that little system along s England Thursday night which has some snowfall on its n edge 

not quite getting the concern for the outlook being flatter. Even if it verifies, we live in the UK, not Canada! 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Could you explain what is 'interesting' to some new members that chart just looks like a kid has drawn on it with crayons

Some hints of a Scandi high and a genua low which combined could make  potent easterlies 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
31 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Right - That's the snow out of the way lets get back to looking out into the mid-term with lust and hope

The models are hinting towards height rises over Scandinavia and have been doing so for a few days now.

Scandi.thumb.png.8dc6bb57297c2b289ba145a5fafaa373.png

Azores High ridging North-East towards developing heights over Scandi. No model has gone full scale with it yet because the GFS as usual revs up the Polar Vortex and pushes it all away. But, as long as continue to see the trend towards heights over Scandi as per the GFS 12z above, we've got something to look forward to. 

In the meantime, less cold towards the end of the week but certainly not what I'd call "mild".

not quite, plenty of interest for southern counties of england later on tonight and into tomorrow courtesy of storm ana which the prospects of rain, sleet and possibly heavy snow for some for a time :wink:

gfs1.thumb.png.2f6041baf86b1cfe37df86591c46f56f.png gfs2.thumb.png.de44c872c66adab0ecd8215211d7949c.png gfs3.thumb.png.ea886d1474bc22eba1b28e7eeac442be.png gfs4.thumb.png.5ba2eebc2f30f7f10428285e714f87b9.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

As much as im sure most of us would love a 62/63 style freeze for the next 3 months its highly unlikely to happen, mild spells will occur and the Atlantic will always be trying to knock at the door, but theres plenty of time yet for the cold to return this winter. 

In the short term, some very cold temperatures over the next couple of days especially Tuesday

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl

Finding the models for the next 10 days interesting. They look consistent for 8 days - a bit warmer, a bit wintry Thursday in the North West, high pressure, benign day or so, and then? GFS has moved to wet westerlies from ridging but now ECM is looking interesting at D9 and D10. Always interesting when options are available. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes.

No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.

I agree Chiono. It seems even from a novice like me that Nly outbreaks can happen even with subtle changes in ridging. Models seems keen to keep the jet meandering in the around the Northern hemisphere.

Ok I admit chances of a UK wide christmas snow event are slim but for certain areas maybe just possible. 

We live in the Western Isles. Supposedly on the mild atlantic. Snow is unusual close to the coast. A snow event with several inches recorded is even rarer. We have a rapidly cooling island that increases the chance of snow. 

 

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