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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Because as Tamara and GP pointed out the other day there will be a transition period from the end of the current Atlantic ridge driven cold spell to another cold spell come xmas/new year driven by hieght rises to our north and northeast. This was always on the cards and it is no surprise to see it in the modelling.

Yes, but the question is whether those atmospheric drivers are still present.

Today's output is about as flat and vile as we've seen for a couple of years, going back to December 15's horror show.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, bluearmy said:

Five clusters on the extended eps tells me that the modelling is waiting to decide where it's going 

also, it's two weeks since we saw the mid Atlantic/greeny high and nw euro low anomoly raise som eyebrows in here

this morning we have this chart for Xmas - not a bad place to be methinks as it won't be exactly like this and adjustments in coldies favour could be very festive indeed

IMG_0675.thumb.PNG.e0f9916f10404fcaef4a6ca44a04fb29.PNG

 

Bluearmy, what are you doing on here, aren't you buried in mountains of snow ;)

With no snow for amusement, I also had a look at the clusters today - always happier when they come up with several!

The Scandi high for 19/20 looks shaky but not dropped completely in the ensembles, the control run has a cluster that looks like one might develop.

As BA mentions, Christmas Day now in range of the extended ensembles, on the face of it a mild SWly couldn't be discounted, but there are clusters that do provide a way to a white Christmas, particularly those that get the trough a bit further south.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017121000_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The picture in six days time as seen by the main models:

UKMO   image.thumb.gif.3f7b6ba10579ceb89eeda00a23950599.gif  image.thumb.gif.5f2fdcee12cf790dfaaf58b4847082cd.gif

ECM      image.thumb.gif.b138345a4cd1d96dd991157ce614d39d.gif  image.thumb.gif.71ea3268cfc2380035ddfd7dd2f149ca.gif

GFS       image.thumb.png.ed316f9d2f04298ab7390454638b8ac7.png  image.thumb.png.bc9d29ded0c644c600ed129eb500ba19.png

GEM      image.thumb.png.6b61ad7b3f23c43ce409ab235011b4ef.png  image.thumb.png.836a167a98942e45a21fc0e97a1bb59c.png

All telling much the same story - colder infulences have not yet disappeared completely but later charts show the Azores high  flattens out and allows a westerly flow from the Atlantic in the following days.  This would result in warmer, moist air over the UK and probably windier conditions - no snowy potential at all.  We can only wait to see if further blocking begins to set up before Christmas but in the meantime we can still enjoy our wintery spell for today and probably tomorrow at least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Because as Tamara and GP pointed out the other day there will be a transition period from the end of the current Atlantic ridge driven cold spell to another cold spell come xmas/new year driven by hieght rises to our north and northeast. This was always on the cards and it is no surprise to see it in the modelling.

I have total respect for GP and Tamara. Im not sure they have said there will be a Scandi high only it is a distinct possibility given what is expected in the pacific and subsequent PV movement west. There also has to be the possibilty on what we see in the 06z Op and have a strong PV to our North. If GP or Tamara could forcast that far out for our little corner and nail it everytime they would both be very rich people. Saying this i hope this is of the ones they Nail as the 06z op is total pants!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och weel. Today's 06Z is a tad more mobile than yesterday's runs...Has yet another of Piers Corbyn's solar filaments gone AWOL?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Nicholas B said:

I have total respect for GP and Tamara. Im not sure they have said there will be a Scandi high only it is a distinct possibility given what is expected in the pacific and subsequent PV movement west. There also has to be the possibilty on what we see in the 06z Op and have a strong PV to our North. If GP or Tamara could forcast that far out for our little corner and nail it everytime they would both be very rich people. Saying this i hope this is of the ones they Nail as the 06z op is total pants!

Of course Tamara and GP are not the weather gods but they along with a couple of others are nevertheless our global drivers experts and if they are suggesting the current set up even allowing for a flatter transition period is likely to lead to hieght rises to our northeast (which i would equate to a scandi or arctic ridge) then thats good enough for me. 

I think Blue and MWB take the right line here by summarising the whole forecast runs not just the single deterministic operational run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
55 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Because as Tamara and GP pointed out the other day there will be a transition period from the end of the current Atlantic ridge driven cold spell to another cold spell come xmas/new year driven by hieght rises to our north and northeast. This was always on the cards and it is no surprise to see it in the modelling.

Posters putting to much faith in what Tamara and GP have to say will lead to tears time and again. Some posters have very short memories. Having said that they may be right and they may be wrong.  Events happening in the strat now that it is properly coupled with the trop will dictate where the weather will be heading in the next couple of weeks. This reminds me very much of 12/13 so I would not be surprised to see a more mobile pattern unfortunately over the next couple of weeks similar to Dec 12 when the strat was undergoing a warming. It may not be till late Dec or early Jan before we see a switch back to a much colder and blocked pattern setting up again. I really hope I am wrong though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, comet said:

Posters putting to much faith in what Tamara and GP have to say will lead to tears time and again. Some posters have very short memories. Having said that they may be right and they may be wrong.  Events happening in the strat now that it is properly coupled with the trop will dictate where the weather will be heading in the next couple of weeks. This reminds me very much of 12/13 so I would not be surprised to see a more mobile pattern unfortunately over the next couple of weeks similar to Dec 12 when the strat was undergoing a warming. It may not be till late Dec or early Jan before we see a switch back to a much colder and blocked pattern setting up again. I really hope I am wrong though.

Hi Comet the final five lines of your post are exactly what Tamara and GP have been suggesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a period of zonal atlantic mobility (positive NAO) for week 2..the run up to and including christmas with spells of milder wet and windy weather, especially across the n / nw  with the s / se having some decent dry intervals inbetween the more unsettled conditions..something of a n/s or nw/se split for a while before it becomes progressively more unsettled further south too.

21_246_850tmp.png

21_270_850tmp.png

21_318_500mb.png

21_342_500mb.png

21_366_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Seems likely that we are going to see a longer spell of mild zonality despite background signals, then?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Seems likely that we are going to see a longer spell of mild zonality despite background signals, then?

Not necessarily! The models will not be picking up on these background signals for a while yet, perhaps for another another 5-7 days in my view. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Seems likely that we are going to see a longer spell of mild zonality despite background signals, then?

To be fair, the GEFS mean has been showing this for a while but it's been generally ignored / overlooked in the cold frenzy.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The models show we have one more spell of Atlantic ridging at the end of the coming week which will bring us a rather cold nw.and then the upstream change looks like kicking in and we see a more typical westerly setup as the Canadian vortex extends east.

 gensnh-21-1-228.pngEDH1-240.GIF?10-12

The disappearance of the Alaskan ridge translating to a flattening out of the Atlantic jet beyond day 7.

Short term we have still have a couple of cold days with some sharp frosts especially over lying snow,then a bit of a warm up mid-week-fax T84hrs

fax84s.gif

with that nw flow following behind.

Further on and looking at the day 15 eps shows a resurgent upstream ridge over the west coast of NA,a Hudson bay tough and still a flat looking Atlantic/Azores high with a weak downstream Scandinavian trough.This the latest gefs take on it at the same time.

gensnh-21-5-360.png

 

Pretty good agreement within the 2 ens suites for the placement of the overall 500hPa ht anomalies. A more typical westerly outlook is beckoning with temperatures closer to average in week 2.

Whether the upstream developments will work into the Atlantic pattern beyond this period remains to be seen but with those +ve ht anomalies across the Arctic there is certainly room for optimism if it's further cold you are looking for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

To be fair, the GEFS mean has been showing this for a while but it's been generally ignored / overlooked in the cold frenzy.

ECM ens too Karl.:)

Nothing overly mild generally speaking but something more typical in week 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

ECM ens too Karl.:)

Nothing overly mild generally speaking but something more typical in week 2.

Indeed phil, as you say, something more typical. Although generally milder and Atlantic driven during week 2 it doesn't preclude some short lived colder, brighter showery interludes with wintry showers and night frosts which might coincide with christmas.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Picked this put from the GFS... seems to be a bit of a recurrent pattern. With ridging in the atlantic as cold air spills from the north. I know people are stating mild zonal weather for christmas. But given the amount of snow we have had, I think its too close to call personally. Not convinced about polar vortex strengthening either. 

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

As my post got removed, not too surprised as it was borderline MOD related, so apologies there. But was hoping an attempted explanation of the why it didn't snow IMBY or elsewhere for others would help the learning curve of many in here. Many of us put too much emphasis on the models, follow them religiously and expect them to deliver. As it is one of the weirdest days of snow watching I've ever experienced (as mentioned in my removed post). Perhaps Nick F, Phil nw or someone with plenty of knowhow could daft something in the near future, it WILL aid the learning curves of a number in here and will perhaps stip too many of those posts the MODS don't want to see. Including this post, lol. Apologies again.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 hours ago, Borei said:

Yes, but the question is whether those atmospheric drivers are still present.

Today's output is about as flat and vile as we've seen for a couple of years, going back to December 15's horror show.

They are mainly oceanic drivers - and yes: as of 6th Dec my data says they are still present. Awaiting the next update, but no change of emphasis yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, Nicholas B said:

I have total respect for GP and Tamara. Im not sure they have said there will be a Scandi high only it is a distinct possibility given what is expected in the pacific and subsequent PV movement west. There also has to be the possibilty on what we see in the 06z Op and have a strong PV to our North. If GP or Tamara could forcast that far out for our little corner and nail it everytime they would both be very rich people. Saying this i hope this is of the ones they Nail as the 06z op is total pants!

Re the Scandi HP, there is definitely signals for a strong Scandi block, several methods suggest it.  What isn’t clear is the infkuence it will have on us.  Wrong orientation or too far east and nothing, then the other option. I too am not buying the brutal flat outlook in FI charts, I think we’ll lose a touch of amplification along the way but next weekend’s Atlantic Ridge still very much on in my books. Beyond .....it is FI.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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WINTER 2017/18 REPORT No. 4a WITH DECEMBER 10th INPUT

PART 1: With my main weekly reports tending to be quite long, I shall continue to split them into at least 2 parts probably posted several days apart. This one will be in 3 parts. As they can take many hours to prepare, this will enable me to draw more on the most recent model runs rather than earlier ones. Part 2 will include an update of my European indicators and analysis and part 3 will focus on my Arctic indicators.

A REVIEW OF THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND A LOOK FURTHER AHEAD

I am writing this from a rainy and very windy Exmouth (currently 8 am) but I am keeping one eye on the radar and following the areas receiving the snow. Good luck to those that get (or have already had) a decent fall and enjoy it while it lasts. At least it gives me an opportunity to concentrate on this report! With the snow occupying so many regular posters with many of them on the specialist regional threads, there has been a real lack of activity on this thread with little analysis of the model output going beyond the next few days. So, I thought that I would spend a little more time today looking at this compared to my usual approach

Well that was another extraordinary and very exciting week for model watching.  Having struggled to nail down the detail regarding the northerly that arrived during Thursday behind storm Caroline the models then encountered the complex pattern concerning the slider low. There was reasonable agreement on the timing and the formation zone but variations in the trajectory. Although on a macro scale these were very small differences, they were highly significant in terms of our tiny island. The track varied from model to model and run to run right up until 12 hours out but they all showed a generally east-south-easterly to south-easterly direction. Around 5 days out, the range of tracks were mostly between north Northern Ireland exiting around the Humber estuary and central Ireland exiting around the Thames estuary or north Kent. A few varied north and south of these limits. Then the trend was slightly further south and back again. All this fluffing about would not normally get so much attention but the final track would determine who gets snow (and how much), who gets rain and who gets nothing out of the ordinary. With so many snow starved members on this forum, emotions began to run very high. If computer models were given an emotion chip they would probably laugh at our behaviour!

Turning to the broader picture and looking ahead we are in the middle of some very interesting pattern changes and the models have been struggling with the next week and beyond.  It looks like most of the next 7 to10 days will be rather cold to cold but not quite as cold as the last couple of days. The milder wedge that encroached into the south-west overnight and today is being squeezed out and moving away south-eastwards. Most models now show another slightly less potent northerly later this week and, yet again, more or less coinciding with another weekend. There will be some sharp frosts wherever it clears overnight, particularly over the snowfields. Some more wintry precipitation looks quite likely but also some snow melt as well. The day to day detail will vary and really needs to be studied in the T+24 toT+60 range.

This is not meant to be an attempt at a detailed medium range weather forecast, I’m just setting the scene for the following week where there is once again some considerable uncertainty with the models showing some diverse evolutions. Broadly, the background signals suggest (as explained in several excellent posts by the  likes of @Tamara, @Glacier Point and several others) that we “may” briefly see the PNA turning negative with somewhat reduced amplification over the Atlantic with a flatter pattern for a few days(or slightly longer) and the PV reasserting itself to some extent. Then, the indications are that we shall see the PNA going strongly positive again with renewed strong amplification in the mid-Atlantic and into the Arctic with the PV thoroughly disrupted again and unable to take up its usual position and strength for this time of the year.  There are also signs that the MJO may come to life again later this month just as it’s moving towards its important phases 7, 8 and 1 which often assist with HLB patterns.

“Should” these changes transpire, we are likely to see some very blocked patterns again with the jet stream buckling, meandering, possibly splitting with the southern arm quite likely to be stronger and more dominant and probably taking a route well south of the UK. If we stay on the cold side of the jet, this might lead to further northerlies but there are some tentative but strengthening indications that we might see a strong build of pressure to our north-east. This might lead to a Scandinavian HP and even a build of pressure from Siberia and Russia pushing westwards. If this set up really takes hold, then a true “cut-off” Greenland HP is not out of the question at times and even linking up with the Scandinavian HP at times. There are also signs of stratospheric warmings later this month – not a full scale SSW shown yet but this may assist in prolonging the cold spell well into January.

Remember that GP and Tamara both said that the models are highly likely to struggle with this possible pattern change and the timing of the changes is particularly uncertain. Some of the output has been quite progressive by hinting at a build of pressure towards our north-east from as early as day 10. Other runs have shown the changes around or just after Christmas (including yesterday’s MetO 15 to 30 day outlook) and this would be right at the end of the GFS and GEFS runs.

So we must be really patient and not be overly concerned with any run showing a 10 day period of much milder and more zonal weather in the run up to the Christmas holidays (I know that as the model output changes from run to run so will the mood with some posters producing their usual agony to ecstasy and back again comments!).  It’s extremely rare to see a prolonged cold spell lasting for weeks on end and even most of our severest winters had at least one milder interlude with December 2010 and December 1981/ January 1982 being prime examples. In fact during my lifetime (1953 vintage) only 1962/63 saw very longs periods of ice days with just the briefest of slightly less cold weather (although the south-west did see a few short-lived milder periods).

CAUTION:  Before anyone gets too excited about this, the renewed blocking is by no means certain and a flatter more zonal pattern with a much stronger PV may still prevail later on. The temporary change to a flatter pattern next week might gather momentum and last for an extended period. There is no point in me or anyone else having hunches about the forthcoming broad scale pattern changes and we need to take stock and follow the updates from our teleconnection specialists. Remember it’s these signals that drive the models NOT the other way around. Let’s just say that there seems to be some great “potential” for something much more memorable in terms of cold spells for this winter. We’ve got off to an excellent start and there are still 80 days of meteorological winter remaining!

We can begin by having a closer look at some of the longer term output.  I rarely comment on the model runs much beyond the 7 to 10 day period. What I want to show here is the range of possible evolutions.  I will not do one of my cross model analysis in this report (perhaps I’ll do that comparison in a week’s time). I will not show the jet stream or temperatures and I will not even use the usually slightly more reliable model(s). I will use the GEFS and look at some of the perturbations and examine some of the outcomes shown. The 6z output has been rolling out for a while (it’s now 1200).

GEFS 6z RUN ANALYSIS FROM DECEMBER 10TH:

           The current chart T+0

      gensnh-0-1-0.png

Moving on I have selected the T+144 and T+384 charts as well as the halfway point at T+240.

a) The control run:

                        T+144                                                 T+240                                                 T+384

      gensnh-0-1-144.png           gensnh-0-1-240.png           gensnh-0-1-384.png

I really do not understand all the worry.  The control run is one of the warmest towards the end and finishes with HP just to our south and a fairly week westerly flow.  The most important feature is the PNA returning towards neutral and showing signs of going positive. Out of the 20 perturbations there are none which are really negative and only 5 which are close to neutral with the other 15 either positive or very positive again. Many show HP somewhere over the Arctic with some maintaining it right over the pole. About 6 have HP over or close to the UK. Some have LP close to the UK but often to our north or north-west (not dissimilar to the patterns we have seen recently with quite frequent northerlies).  The most  common feature is that the vast majority of perturbations show HP somewhere over Europe, Scandinavia of Russia, with some showing some very strong cells and ridges.

b) The Mean:

                         T+144                                                T+240                                                T+384

        gensnh-21-1-144.png             gensnh-21-1-240.png              gensnh-21-1-384.png 

The mean chart can be a little misleading as it averages out some of the more extreme variants. The main thing to notice is the PNA going positive again with higher pressure extending across the pole from Alaska to Siberia. The weakish looking LP centred around Greenland masks a few perturbations showing much deeper LP in that region and many showing higher pressure near there.

 

b) Perturbation 4:

                         T+144                                               T+240                                                T+384

       gensnh-4-1-144.png              gensnh-4-1-240.png             gensnh-4-1-384.png

 

b) Perturbation 7:

                         T+144                                              T+240                                                 T+384

      gensnh-7-1-144.png              gensnh-7-1-240.png              gensnh-7-1-384.png 

 

b) Perturbation 8:

                        T+144                                               T+240                                                 T+384

      gensnh-8-1-144.png              gensnh-8-1-240.png              gensnh-8-1-384.png   

 

b) Perturbation 12:

                     T+144                                                  T+240                                                 T+384

    gensnh-12-1-144.png           gensnh-12-1-240.png           gensnh-12-1-384.png

So if you run through all these charts, you'll see that I deliberately selected those which show quite a variation in the final outcome but my main point stands and even the charts which show LP close to the UK still show "mostly" colder than average patterns. Currently, following the milder period in week 2 (possible lasting from 7 to 10 days or so), the longer term indications are very encouraging for "coldies" and very much in line to what GP and Tamara have hinted at.

Finally, I'll be back within a day or two with part 2 of this report with a close look at European temperatures and what we might expect from a possible easterly later on.    

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Growing signals from GFS ens for a spell of milder air in the run up to Christmas for the main day its self it looks like we might see a fall again

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.912186bd02c23fae983ac52ed77dec4a.png

Around the 18th looks to be the transition period from cold to mild

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