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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look at last nights NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies, not forgetting previous runs, to see whether there are any indications of the forthcoming evolution. I need to keep the waffle short as I'm on my Tablet as my main website connection is still on the blink.

Overy the next 14 days there are some upstream changes perhaps indicative of the PNA going negative. An Aleutian trough develops with a stronger Alaskan ridge and more importantly a reorientation of the Canadian vortex lobe and associated troughs, one of which is aligned east south of Greenland. Quite importantly this affects the orientation and intensity of the Atlantic Ridge and with a strong upper flow still leaving the eastern seaboard a tendency for the flow over the Atlantic to become more zonal

Having said that the flow in the eastern Atlantic does abate somewhat and splits under the influence of the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge,  positive anomalies NW of Norway connected to the east European Ridge and the weakening  trough to the south East of the UK.

Ergo the changeable and quite cool weather could quite possible become more settled with Temps creeping up to be near average but more than likely a return to the proverbial north south split.

pna_cfsv2_32ens_2017120918.thumb.png.9d67ddabadbd97f0d3b8150de71d5384.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.57775702d2047259e6010e37a3225893.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.06b3a047188e8792c2ba971f7c1b5e40.png610day_03.thumb.gif.2db4461d74d39d4783aaa42b494382cc.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.df626a2642d4ab5ca25d77f09a2211a9.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.02c9648f64ae53e84778122917833c3a.pngpna_cfsv2_32ens_2017120918.thumb.png.9d67ddabadbd97f0d3b8150de71d5384.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Our positive trend of yesterday has hit the buffers this morning!

The upstream pattern doesn’t re-amplify and a lobe of the PV ne of Scandi  runs west re-invigorating the PV near Greenland .

The cold extension is looking  ropy this morning but we’ll have to wait to see what tonight brings.

There has been a pattern recently of flatter 00hrs runs and more amplified 12 hrs so let’s hope that continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Just a quiet reminder that for those who want to post about their snow (or lack of in some cases), can you please use the regionals threads, the general winter chat threads or no snow club section please. A few posts have already been removed this morning.

Thankyou :)

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big forecast bust for the GFS here

high res hirlam & aperge spot on- !! Another 20-30 mile slide overnight brings heavy snow to london --

Yes quite a slide south..

Currently snowing v-heavy here 2 cms already!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big forecast bust for the GFS here

high res hirlam & aperge spot on- !! Another 20-30 mile slide overnight brings heavy snow to london --

The high res models and ecm have done well on the final evolution. Where gfs did well was sliding the system against a more defined wedge across the Atlantic as opposed to ecm which appeared to want to dive the system in an arc around the Atlantic high. Ecm got the final position of the longwave trough pretty well from last weekend  (apart from one op run)

this experience tells us that one model is never completely right but a blended view should take account of run to run consistency and weight ecm more strongly in this context 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
57 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes quite a slide south..

Currently snowing v-heavy here 2 cms already!!!!

Great to see these upgrades for the south, shame that means downgrades for the north but nice to see the southward adjustments from the models this morning.:santa-emoji:I have a lot of friends and relatives in the south / southeast so good luck to them!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Worst models out of the hi-res were the Icon and the NMM, I'm sure I saw the NMM have it way to the south at one point and the Icon consistently modelled it too far North, a lot had it slightly too far North a few daysout but Most models were pretty decent once it got within 24 hours I think, you cant expect them to be accurate to the nearest mile, 10-20 miles isn't that bad IMO, and theres no way you can get the snow-rain line 100% right because of varying local topography.

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

Props to the Met Office, they have handled this situation really well. 

Indeed the high res models and the ECM pretty much got it bang on from 36-24 hours out and the corrections southward noted by experienced posters came to fruition. 

Great to see ice days modelled over the snowfields over the coming couple of days too. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
2 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Props to the Met Office, they have handled this situation really well. 

Indeed the high res models and the ECM pretty much got it bang on from 36-24 hours out and the corrections southward noted by experienced posters came to fruition. 

Great to see ice days modelled over the snowfields over the coming couple of days too. 

 

Hats off to the ECM never in a million years would I believe I would be waking up here as far as the South side of the Thames to a covering of the white stuff. I'm like a kid at Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see these upgrades for the south, shame that means downgrades for the north but nice to see the southward adjustments from the models this morning.:santa-emoji:I have a lot of friends and relatives in the south / southeast so good luck to them!:)

A good few mile south correct.

Some mods had this badly incorrect.

And yes still snowing...

Around 4 cms now....

20171210_090101.jpg

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please keep snow reports to the regionals. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Can we please keep snow reports to the regionals. Thanks.

Personally interested in any snow reports linked to model verification. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just to show how fair, balanced and completely neutral I am with my posts...the Ecm 00z shows much milder conditions bathing the uk on days 8/9 :santa-emoji:

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

extras_laugh_wt_r_1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
1 minute ago, Luke Best said:

Personally interested in any snow reports linked to model verification. 

The regional threads are the best place for snow reports Luke.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Big forecast bust for the GFS here

high res hirlam & aperge spot on- !! Another 20-30 mile slide overnight brings heavy snow to london --

Depends how far out you were looking. The ARPEGE was completely wrong at 48 hours on Friday, getting closer at 36 hours and only correct at 24 hours out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Beware this way well be pushed south run by run.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Our positive trend of yesterday has hit the buffers this morning!

The upstream pattern doesn’t re-amplify and a lobe of the PV ne of Scandi  runs west re-invigorating the PV near Greenland .

The cold extension is looking  ropy this morning but we’ll have to wait to see what tonight brings.

There has been a pattern recently of flatter 00hrs runs and more amplified 12 hrs so let’s hope that continues.

I suspect we will see varying output from the models in the days ahead, some will ramp up the atlantic due to the foreseen changes you mention, whereas others will show a much weaker attempt - my own hunch is any atlantic onslaught will be weak and watered down, and longer terms heights to the NE will be the growing theme - may take a bit of time, period of interest exactly around christmas, a white cold New Year could be on the cards.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, jessandjon said:

Would be nice to see some info on the 0z, I am a never poster as I have no clue what I am looking for and usually read this!! :-)

To be honest, the models look dreadful this morning for the medium to long term. Why have they all gone so flat I wonder. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

To be honest, the models look dreadful this morning for the medium to long term. Why have they all gone so flat I wonder. 

Yes they do...

The vortex looks to be heading back to its perch very soon...

All eyes to the strat soon looking for hope of a warming

 

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