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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Delete. Wrong thread, oops

Edited by Danny*
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Euro4 continues with the southward shift.!

 

BBE2D55C-4C83-4314-8466-F5F9EF3BEA0D.gif

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And hot off the press - ECM joins the party ! 

 

24586508-212B-482C-B36C-BE4144B33458.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
Addition of model output (12z ECM)
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

Two GFS runs (6Z/12Z) on a trot now, have formed a low SW of ireland next weekend, cutting it off and then dropping it like a stone through Iberia into North Africa, not sure if i've ever seen that before.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Now that Christmas day is in range of the Gfs it's going to be fun viewing what the big day has in store..currently it looks like a white Christmas for some of us!:drunk::cold-emoji::santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Yep, temps dropping on the near continent.  

ECH0-216.GIF?09-0

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Have a feeling it may be a while to get a trigger to help fire the bullet though.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 192 is pretty good- would take that with open arms !

IMG_2242.thumb.PNG.1ed719559b3b260ceb2997c6aa8ff941.PNG

The 216 is excellent if we can get some trough disruption SE

 

Looks V cold. If skies are clear we could see some intense frosts.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 240, one word springs to mind.....'primed'!

ECH1-240.GIF?09-0 ECH0-240.GIF?09-0

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
42 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Quite quiet on here this evening perhaps people are out having their staff Christmas parties! 

Midweek looking unsettled, wet and windy but the weekend should improve with high pressure moving back into the west. 

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A lot of members now in the regionals i believe- where some of the posts that have been removed from here should have gone wrt the snow event chat.

Please only model talk in here.

Thankyou.:)

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice to see the cold air heading back south again following a less cold midweek blip, looks better than the Ecm 00z.:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone got precipitation charts from ukmo!!wana see how far noth the precipitation goes!!thanks

Unfortunately, due to a data transmission issue we're currently not receiving the data for the Met-Office global model. We're hoping the data will be available again soon.

It seems they are currently offline. Never mind - they only show 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead as far as I can see.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
11 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Unfortunately is all gone South snow line now south of Coventry I'm sorry shaky and the low moves south.

The 12Z ECM and the NMM Output begs to differ:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.12323826574d85884b2baaae4eac3555.pngimage.thumb.png.b3b433cc6ab84cb2217cb3850722455d.pngnmm_uk1-1-20-1_zes4.pngnmm_uk1-1-21-1_uyz7.png

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

There an hours difference between the precip charts. Not much fifference that I can see.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A pretty chilly looking GEFS 12z mean with high pressure influence increasing from next weekend, surface cold,  frosty nights, crisp bright days for many but more changeable across the north. Then later the high is replaced by lower heights further northwest becoming more extensive

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all :)

Looking a deal further ahead, the ECM 12Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

GEM 12Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?12

GFS 12Z Control at the same time:

gens-0-1-240.png

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

gfs-0-240.png?12

Variations on a theme if I'm being honest. The GFS Control looks a little progressive but the others all have a hint of rising heights over Scandinavia and while GEM does its usual of overblowing Atlantic LPs, neither GFS OP nor ECM scream a raging zonal Atlantic. Indeed, the Atlantic systems look weak and flabby in contrast to what you'd expect in midwinter. 

To be fair, a glance at the 12Z Ensembles suggests three likely paths - the Atlantic in charge, pressure rising from the south and pressure rising to the NE. I wouldn't rule any out for the run up to Christmas at this time. Perhaps we'll get a big HP centred right over us and some serious midwinter inversion with fog and severe frost for all.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Control goes off on one - big spread at end

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.png.5c164be5984dbbde82d16c4424f99638.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Those Ukmet168 charts are shocking, about as useful as the CMA.

Disagree, the signal appears to be that the Azores / Atlantic ridge will build in during next weekend cutting off the Northerly airflow and pressure will then become higher generally across the southern half / third of the uk with night frosts and chilly bright mainly dry days although further n / nw may continue rather more changeable..that's how I see it.

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