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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Here we go with a fresh model discussion thread - things are getting very interesting right now!

Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models?
The banter thread is for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

Want to talk about the snow / cold weather in your part of the country?
The regional threads are the place for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Happy model watching :D

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Latest AROME has shifted the snow further south than it's 0Z output. Interesting.

T36

aromehd-53-36-0.png?09-12 

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15 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Latest AROME has shifted the snow further south than it's 0Z output. Interesting.

T36

aromehd-53-36-0.png?09-12 

Interestingly similar to the new ARGEPE 06Z too which was even further south still. Not far from hitting London on either!!

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly similar to the new ARGEPE 06Z too which was even further south still. Not far from hitting London on either!!

mm, increasingly looking like a Dec 18th 2010 style event, was happy with it, 6cm ish, but further south, W Midlands, Stourbridge etc, had over a foot

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In a nutshell, it looks like there will be a phase of positive NAO with the northern arm of the jet flexing its muscles for a time in the immediate run up to christmas with associated milder, wet and windy weather off the atlantic but it doesn't look like lasting long with a flip back to generally colder blockier conditions between xmas and new year..all being well!

In the meantime, at least another week or so of unsettled weather and generally on the cold side, especially at first and then again during the second half of next week as colder polar / arctic air is again drawn south for a time.:)

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22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly similar to the new ARGEPE 06Z too which was even further south still. Not far from hitting London on either!!

The shift south should have always been expected from Day 1, once a slider scenario is expected to varify then the intra run differences usually net out a southerly correction across the day- so whilst theres the odd northerly Jog in a single run the day as a whole is south.

The current high res models have now generally all landed in about the same place so if your slap bang in the middle of the red zone your pretty safe, however its the fringes that remain interesting - with 18-24 hours to go the scope for movement of the PPN band -

Exciting times ahead with aperges view on Monday

IMG_2232.thumb.PNG.5557ce5b5dad83e74c483d0c681b774a.PNG

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Nice to hear GLOSEA leaning towards high pressure towards N/NE late December - one to watch as by then atleast the continent is much colder if we can get something from the East!! 

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Something to keep an eye on in gfs

 

 

Screenshot_20171209-150034.png

Edited by ArHu3

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11 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

I want to just mention about a snow and severe gale risk for South Wales & parts of Southern England tomorrow as it was originally thought it would be milder with rain here...........

Latest Arome run brings snow across south Wales (even the south coast after a very brief mild spell tomorrow morning) by dinner time, it's well worth noting there'll be severe gales gusting up to 70mph through and around the Bristol Channel for a short time so if these combine we could see blizzards in places, fortunately the worst winds seem to be staying away from the snowline but these things can change very quickly as we're only talking about 20 miles (if that) inland from the coast.

Through the afternoon this snow spreads into parts of southern England indeed this run suggests snow in a line from north Devon to the IOW by tomorrow evening! 

GFS 12z coming out in about 1.5 hours I'll be looking closely for any similarities with the Arome  :cold:

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If the severe gales and snowline clash anywhere, then the places underneath would get a right pasting with snow drifts! Hopefully they'll stay apart!

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I think what the far south has to worry about tomorrow is westerly gales which could be severe for a time..hoping the southeast catches some back edge snow on Monday which I think it will on its western flank but I'm not sure essex and kent will see any white, hope I'm wrong though but it looks wet across the s / se on monday with temps around 5c.

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1 hour ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

If the severe gales and snowline clash anywhere, then the places underneath would get a right pasting with snow drifts! Hopefully they'll stay apart!

I cant see them merging as the gales are on the warmer side of the pressure system.

North of the gales would be where the snowline is and the models do sort of show this.

 

ukwind.pngprectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Lynxus
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Please keep "Will it snow here?" type discussion in the relevant regional threads please.

Cheers.

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A somewhat small shift southwards on the GFS 12z bringing the snowline marginally southwards as a result.

GFS 6z.png

GFS 6z precip.png

GFS 12z.png

GFS 12z precip.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Yessssss GFS 12z also now has the snow pivoting back across South Wales tomorrow afternoon and down across parts of southern England, right atm it's following the Arome 6z 

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GEM12z takes an even more southerly track with a very compressed system - exit point now down to Kent ( & to think it started around Newcastle especially on the GFS)

Snowline very very close to London with 24 hours to go...

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Because the system is getting flatter & flatter the cut off line & transition point is so fine that the second the centre point passes so the cold air pushes back south again...

S

Ukmo and gfs very similar. 

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25 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Yessssss GFS 12z also now has the snow pivoting back across South Wales tomorrow afternoon and down across parts of southern England, right atm it's following the Arome 6z 

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By far that's the best snow chart I've seen since December 2010 for my area!! 

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Not sure if anyone has posted this, apologies if you have. However, the earlier Arpege takes the snow line along the phantom M4. Updated Arpege currently trickling out I think. 20-30cm across Southern Midlands, 5-15 generally elsewhere. Pinch of salt...

arpegeuk-1-27-0.png?09-12arpegeuk-45-34-0.png?09-12

Edited by PerfectStorm

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Whilst all concentrate on next 36 hours, rinse and repeat next weekend re northerly winds...lovely cold run into Xmas week.....

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Edited by FiftyShadesofWine

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Interesting !

The GFS 12 hrs run  is holding the low further south to the east over Eastern Europe which allows the toppling ridge to the west some support.

You want low heights to remain there and not get pulled north as in the earlier 06 hrs run.

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3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Not sure if anyone has posted this, apologies if you have. However, the earlier Arpege takes the snow line along the phantom M4. Updated Arpege currently trickling out I think. 20-30cm across Southern Midlands, 5-15 generally elsewhere. Pinch of salt...

arpegeuk-1-27-0.png?09-12arpegeuk-45-34-0.png?09-12

It's amazing that the other models are dished out when on the hunt for snow?

The poor mods have waved the white flag!I suppose you can't blame members after the last mild wet winters.I think there could be some interest next weekend again something we need to watch.:)

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