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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

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Took a few photos around Longton and Burton. It was nice, with frequent snow showers. Even though accumulations were small.

C6C8A5C4-65B4-4B31-B717-E50343807B2E.jpeg

FD7102A3-0579-44BE-8822-C503EE8C1339.jpeg

ED71C862-27C8-47E8-9457-F3A8A3673A2A.jpeg

BDEDEAE8-D4D4-41BE-90C1-70ACDB716BF9.jpeg

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Rain to snow ratio depends on temperature. The higher the temperature, the smaller the ratio.

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Snippet from a PhD research paper on mm to cm for snow:

The most common or average value of the snow/water ratio is usually considered as 10:1. So, when talking about low density snow (or light snow), that will imply high snow/water ratios, i.e. higher than 10:1. Conversely, high density snow (heavy snow) will be associated with low snow/water ratios, i.e. lower than 10:1.

Essentially, wet snow is denser and can weigh 400kg per meter cube, light dry snow (e.g. good cold conditions, not marginal) is 100kg per meter cube. Pure water would be 1000kg per meter cube.

So when it's more marginal with wet snow, 10mm of rain would give about 4cm of snow. In not marginal scenarios where the snow is light, 10mm would be 10cm - but apparently it can be even higher, 10mm can be as much as 15cm in some scenarios.

 

 

Edited by kmanmx

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2 minutes ago, cj1 said:

I thought 40 mm would be up to 40cm as snow is up to 90% air

I'm personally not worrying about accumulation at this stage, more worried about how that front interacts with the cold air.  

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From the speed its coming in doesn't look like its dropping too far southest on the radar.

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27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Euro4 18z is probably the best for here.

858275D4-20F2-4C75-A130-F8A629437F68.jpeg

Thanks guys for the above responses...

But I was querying the actual chart....

 

It  clearly says snow accum (mms). 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Just had a quick peep at the radar :shok: right ho. 

Temp here 0 and falling still. No real idea what's going to pan out tbh. Setting alarm for early maybe. Good luck all 

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6 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Just had a quick peep at the radar :shok: right ho. 

Temp here 0 and falling still. No real idea what's going to pan out tbh. Setting alarm for early maybe. Good luck all 

Another 1C drop here in the last half hour.

Its now -1,9C with a dewpoint of -4.4C.

Looking more like it.

Also my weather screen on my 'weather pro' has just switched from rain to snow for the forecast, as the pressure has started to drop like a stone.

MIA. 

PS Its at -2,1c now  in10mins!

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks guys for the above responses...

But I was querying the actual chart....

 

It  clearly says snow accum (mms). 

 

 

Hmm, I see. All I can say is... it's wrong :\   :- never have found the accumulation charts anywhere near accurate. 

Edited by kmanmx

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Feeling hopeful even this far north. Some of the charts posted in here have been encouraging and the radar is promising.

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Temperature here remains stubborn at 1’C. We get low daytime maximums but the temperature is always very stubborn to fall at night. No idea why.

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Another 1C drop here in the last half hour.

Its now -1,9C with a dewpoint of -4.4C.

Looking more like it.

Also my weather screen on my 'weather pro' has just switched from rain to snow for the forecast, as the pressure has started to drop like a stone.

MIA. 

Yes pressure drop noted and temp falling still. Looks intense over Ireland on radar. Ah the suspense!:unsure2:

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Arpege and Euro4 have done poorly representing the PPN coming in through the SW of England and Wales.

Euro4:

99PiXAj.png

Radar

I580rGF.png

 

Quite a bit further north, and more intense in reality. In fact as a whole, the radar just looks stronger than the models suggested. Maybe I am reading it wrong...

Edited by kmanmx

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Went outside to have a recce a few minutes ago. The lying snow in the front garden has gone powdery again and it's now -1 °C here. Very icy in tyre marks etc, so I decided not to walk further than the end of the drive. Now all we can do is wait!

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I'm reading it as a good sign that warnings are the same and not moved. Like some members have said, they have better data.

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Midnight radar for anyone who can compare with model outputs...

Screenshot_20171210-000749.jpg

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I'm starting to get pretty excited about this now :D need to try and go to bed soon though, gonna set an alarm for 5:30am. See you bright and early peeps!

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1 minute ago, MKN said:

Midnight radar for anyone who can compare with model outputs...

Screenshot_20171210-000749.jpg

It's not a million miles out.

Euro4

8VEpbuX.png

Radar

Jrm7CCH.png

 

Ireland is pretty damn close, but ppn entering england is coming in considerably faster, and a little stronger.

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Just now, andy_leics22 said:

I'm starting to get pretty excited about this now :D need to try and go to bed soon though, gonna set an alarm for 5:30am. See you bright and early peeps!

Nooo you gotta do an all nighter with me :D:D:D

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3 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

So are we looking for the redpart of the over ireland to come twards us?

Yes basically does this as far as I can figure out. It is probably less that actual ppn over ireland hitting us, but more it starting to pivot and swing around up into central England.

 

v5QvgvU.png

Edited by kmanmx

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1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

Yes basically does this as far as I can figure out.

 

v5QvgvU.png

Further north it starts that journey probably the better for our region

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