The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[Paul]

Ignore the fake map all, tis just someone trying to be funny. 

[pegg24]

1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

I know the beeb and meto seem to have the majority of the snow north of Birmingham but we are still in the amber warning might change on tommorows update

Yes think will change we may get a light covering but think it def going more north 5 to 10 cm don't think so.

[WinterWilf]

Il stick with the ecm snow map better for me!!

But its all up in the air I think until i look out the window and the snow is in the ground.

Still time to get burned until 0z

[Cov87]

3 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Yes think will change we may get a light covering but think it def going more north 5 to 10 cm don't think so.

Well ideally for my location (coventry) would want the low a little further south which would make it a all snow event...

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, pegg24 said:

Yes think will change we may get a light covering but think it def going more north 5 to 10 cm don't think so.

I think that’s going to be dropped further south tomorrow on the forecasts as they will be slightly behind the latest models so it will bring us right in the thick of it. Just my opinion of course 

[WinterWilf]

Can't bear to look at the bbc forecast the snow goes from heavy to light snow to snow sleet to nothing as was thursday night. 

 

[shaky]

Arpege further south!!gives a battering to the midlands!!15-20cms!!looking more like the metoffice warnings!!

[mother nature rocks]

So Ian Ferguson and UKMO are still expecting a slight shift south regarding the ‘slider’. Happy days!!!!!

[pegg24]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think that’s going to be dropped further south tomorrow on the forecasts as they will be slightly behind the latest models so it will bring us right in the thick of it. Just my opinion of course 

I hope so as been downgrade s all day today lol. Told the kids we would get snow today on Sunday. 

[mother nature rocks]

2 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

Can't bear to look at the bbc forecast the snow goes from heavy to light snow to snow sleet to nothing as was thursday night. 

 

For gods sake don’t look at the app inc. met Office app too. Amber warning for snow with rain/sleet. Joke

[mother nature rocks]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arpege further south!!gives a battering to the midlands!!15-20cms!!looking more like the metoffice warnings!!

Evening shaky. Where you thinking hotspot on Sunday??

[WinterWilf]

5 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

For gods sake don’t look at the app inc. met Office app too. Amber warning for snow with rain/sleet. Joke

Agreed I seem to have been torturing myself. 

[MKN]

My 2 second take on sunday circled my expected worst hit area 

[WinterWilf]

6 minutes ago, MKN said:

My 2 second take on sunday circled my expected worst hit area 

Superb professional chart.

Would be happy with that.

[pegg24]

42 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Well ideally for my location (coventry) would want the low a little further south which would make it a all snow event...

Think we want it south as well. We same line as your self just further east.

[chris pawsey]

31 minutes ago, MKN said:

My 2 second take on sunday circled my expected worst hit area 

Circle inside the rectangle? Loving the colouring MKN, what does orange mean? Not that I give a dam as I am in the red scribble... and what does red scribble mean?? Sorry, just got back from the pub.

[mother nature rocks]

2 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Circle inside the rectangle? Loving the colouring MKN, what does orange mean? Not that I give a dam as I am in the red scribble... and what does red scribble mean?? Sorry, just got back from the pub.

Heavy snow red, less chance orange ?

[Snowy L]

Too far South and we risk losing heavier ppn. I think it is perfect the way it is. No more corrections please.

[fizz511]

3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Fizz..

 In Solihull, I recorded 17inches in that event. (40cms)

It was undetected until the Friday pm. It was associated with a small low in the North Sea which suddenly 'found' a pool of cold air in the circulation coming out of the low country/ Scandy.

Emergency messages were issued in the 6 o clock news and weather for the regions affected (East of the Pennines and the Midlands)..  They even interrupted the BBC tele programmes with emergency news flashes during the evening..

About 220:00 on my dog walk I saw blue flashes in the sky. I thought it to be lightening.

Came back in just as the first flakes began to fall. The temp was still 5C.

The flakes were huge..... Snow began to settle immediately. All night it just hammered it down. Next morning we had about  12inches of level snow, but we could not see any due to drifting. The M6 was totally closed for 36 hrs. It snowed until about 13:00 here and I measured 17 inches. The highest totals in the country were recorded between Solihull and Coventry, shared with somewhere near Nuneaton..

Quite an event and not forecast by anyone until 6hours before the start of it..

Incredible stuff!

Oh yes and the flashes? -  that was the power lines and trees being taken out by the incredibly wet and heavy snow.

The good news - it was a Saturday morning so we had the weekend to dig out. 

People were freed  from the M6 after 36 hours, just by the Coventry services .

MIA 

PS One of the forecasters of the time  wrote up a report on the incident. with all the snow depths. It must be on the webb somewhere by now,

 

 

That’s kind of solved a bit of a mystery for me....

I was a scout leader at the time, and that night I was helping with a night hike in Sutton Park. We drove all the kids there about 6pm, split them up into groups, gave them their maps and route and sent them off into the night with us meeting them at various checkpoints.

Of course a little while later it started to snow, which was ok. And then it started to bucket down, which wasn’t! We had been allowed to take a vehicle in, so there was a mad half hour of us driving like nutters around the park (which as you know is pretty big), trying to find and rescue all these kids.

Eventually we did, and then we had to take them all home, hammering  on all of their parents doors at 2 in the morning (as they weren’t expecting us till about 6am) to drop them off safely before we all went home!

The mystery you’ve solved is why it wasn’t forecast, as we certainly wouldn’t have gone ahead with the hike if it had been - could have ended very badly indeed... Can you imagine all those kids on the loose in a blizzard, pre mobile phones?!

Just to say there was definitely lightning that night, as before it even started snowing we saw a couple of bolts of it.

Defintely an unforgettable night, and then everyone woke to an unforgettable day ?

 

 

 

[fizz511]

2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

What a coincidence exactly 27 years to the day.

Blizzards with a NW gale wind 10 inches max during that here then.

Ah, thanks Snowy! I’ve saved those for posterity ?

And yes, the coincidence of the date did strike me as I wrote it! ?

[fizz511]

2 hours ago, mr benn said:

Sorry to always mr doom monger in here,  but hiw quickly is any snow gonna clear after Monday ?  Im pleased for  you  guys  as you obviously love it. I wouldnt be so bothered if i didnt have to travel thursday night. Long time Anxiety sufferer and i was actually  looking forward to our xmas party near Coventry thursday nite  . And then goin to west bromwich on the Sunday

I have heard it mentioned of it being milder again by next weekend, but also of more snow Thursday, so a bit of a mixed week ahead for you I would think x

 

[shaky]

1 hour ago, mother nature rocks said:

Evening shaky. Where you thinking hotspot on Sunday??

Wales is an obvious one but for the midlands i reckon around birmingham and leicester and coventry!!i think that triangle there will see plenty of snow!!even latest euro4 suggest 10cms widely and getting to 15cms maybe aswell!!also to ads recent runs take more snow into east anglia aswell!!so more of the region gets into the action!!

Edited December 8, 2017 by shaky

[Snowy L]

Since everyone else is posting maps, here is my guess.

 

 

[mother nature rocks]

Good old Darren Bett on BBC has rain turning to snow much further south as front pushes north. Midlands look right in the mix. Can’t see to much more movement n/s. 

[MKN]

18z Euro4 looks like so...