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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards


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Some pics of my home in Shropshire - it's throwing it down again now.  I'd say we have has about 8 inches but its at least a foot deep on my lawn ans surrounding fields.

17cm of level snow. That's more than Dec 2010 or Dec 1995 managed. It's certainly the most round here since Feb 1991, possibly 1987. 4 years without any significant snow ends like this.!

this mornings drive out or a small bit of it.  

Posted Images

8 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Anyone get the impression Met Office have got this fantastically wrong !?

GFS and other big models dont have it snowing here for another 4 or 5 hours. It's already snowing now, and it's coming down quite heavy. It's only going to get less marginal and more cold as the night goes on, so I don't ever see it reverting back to rain. This is expected to go on for another 9 hours for my area.. 


Wow nice!. According to Met Office, that's all you should be getting. "maybe 1 or 2cm" is what they said. I think they're wrong...

I'm in hall green at the moment,  but chucking it down at home (rubery) aswell! Meto have us down for heavy snow until 5 am 

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

kmanmx...

 I think that the whole thing is moving more quickly than expected.

It could be that around midnight that most of the precipitation may have moved through.

If it hasn't then we have a problem for tomorrow with a lot of people travelling.

I am not certain as the low appears to be centred in central southern England already.

 I did not think that was supposed to  happen until midnight.

Still we will see.

 MIA

I'm not so sure. If you compare 22z output of Hirlam to the Radar, they are pretty well aligned. A few differences, but that is always the case. I am very much a newbie though, so call me out if I am misinterpreting it. The northern extent looks pretty much bang on. Perhaps the radar shows the heavier PPN extending east off the coast more than the model, but to me it just looks like the model didn't get the west to east "width" of the PPN correct, rather than it moving through quicker ? though again, I may be looking at this wrong.

LZU7uDa.png

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Normally the crossover at moderate snow to start to settle is about 0.7c- however intense snow will accumulate ( badly ) up to about 1.3c

Anyone sub 1c will soon have a covering !

Interesting. What is your interpretation on model output vs radar ? would you say it's moving through much quicker or... ?

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1 hour ago, kmanmx said:

Not jealous not jealous not jealous...

:(

To be fair, the models do not forecast it turning to snow here for at least 3 hours. Patience!

Snowing in leicester and settling on cars!!

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3 minutes ago, Rickent said:

Still rain in Barrow Upon Soar.

Looking on Google Maps you are near a bit of water or a stream, so your elevation is probably a fair bit below 100m ASL. When it's marginal like this, a bit of height makes quite a bit of difference. That said it's due to get colder still as we head into early morning hours, so you should still see snow soon enough IMO. 

Edited by kmanmx
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Heavy snow here now in Coventry- settling on cars and on the grass but signs it may begin to settle on the pavements too but it hasn't done so yet.

The ground was very wet after the rain then sleet so it may take a bit of time.

Edited by fourseasons
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3 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Looking on Google Maps you are near a bit of water or a stream, so your elevation is probably a fair bit below 100m ASL. When it's marginal like this, a bit of height makes quite a bit of difference. That said it's due to get colder still as we head into early morning hours, so you should still see snow soon enough IMO. 

67m asl I believe , Leicester is 57m asl and they already have snow.

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Snowing heavily already 2 cms on all surfaces.

Temperature appears to be steady for now at 0.3C with a dew point of -0.7C'

Steve -  to me it appeared to be the dew point which determined whether or not the snow settled. As soon as it dropped to around zero, the snow flakes  stuck on my dustbin (eg) although the air temp was stlll above freezing (about 1c).

 MIA 

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