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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

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shaky, Leicester in sweet spot on 12z Hirlam for snow accumulations :D such narrow margins though, 20 or 30 miles east and no snow at all. This is hella marginal. Going to be a lot of variation and IMBYism going on if snow does settle.

 

Currently 4.4c here in south Leicestershire.

 

y09wJ7K.png

Edited by kmanmx

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12 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

shaky, Leicester in sweet spot on 12z Hirlam for snow accumulations :D such narrow margins though, 20 or 30 miles east and no snow at all. This is hella marginal. Going to be a lot of variation and IMBYism going on if snow does settle.

 

Currently 4.4c here in south Leicestershire.

 

y09wJ7K.png

Looking good for a good stretch of the midlands 😁

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5 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Is the rain coming in a bit earlier? If so is rain more probable?

Not really, it's just very very light precipitation. It's supposed to have been very light rain here for about an hour now but i've not seen a drop. Probably evaporating before it hits the ground being so light. Models often miss the really light stuff in front of the main mass of precipitation in my experience.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

shaky, Leicester in sweet spot on 12z Hirlam for snow accumulations :D such narrow margins though, 20 or 30 miles east and no snow at all. This is hella marginal. Going to be a lot of variation and IMBYism going on if snow does settle.

 

Currently 4.4c here in south Leicestershire.

 

y09wJ7K.png

That is an extremely painful looking chart for myself.

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2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

That is an extremely painful looking chart for myself.

It's pretty close to you though, it could easily be wrong by 50 miles in any direction. You see that happen so often. 

Edited by kmanmx

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13 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Is the rain coming in a bit earlier? If so is rain more probable?

 

Not sure...

 But in the last20 minutes the rain seems to have turned very rapidly to snow in South Wales.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Edit - turn animation on and run the precipitation on also.

 

 Is it correct though,  or might it be an  anaprop?

I think that the light precipitation in front of the main band is  not reaching the ground.

It has passed here without anything falling.

 MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Not sure...

 But in the last20 minutes the rain seems to have turned very rapidly to snow in South Wales.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

 

 Is it correct though,  or might it be an  anaprop?

I think that the light precipitation in front of the main band is  not reaching the ground.

It has passed here without anything falling.

 MIA 

This is where my weather / physics knowledge falls short. But if light ppn is falling and not reaching the ground, it must be evaporating. Would that not lower the temperature more than expected if the light ppn was not predicted ? 

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Just now, kmanmx said:

 

 

It's pretty close to you though, it could easily be wrong by 50 miles in any direction. You see that happen so often. 

Not at this range. Many years of experience has taught me & hopefully others, that in these events, any correction is almost always southwards. Probably more to do with models getting the central pressure too low. If I'm right, the lower the pressure the more Northwards it tends to travel & vice versa.

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6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Not sure...

 But in the last20 minutes the rain seems to have turned very rapidly to snow in South Wales.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Edit - turn animation on and run the precipitation on also.

 

 Is it correct though,  or might it be an  anaprop?

I think that the light precipitation in front of the main band is  not reaching the ground.

It has passed here without anything falling.

 MIA 

Sorry guys..

You will also need to turn the precipitation type on, the animation to 'on'. and you will see what I spotted! 

 Also the 'zoom' to 'out' , to see where South Wales was!!!.

 MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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No snow for me according to the MO. Light rain from 7pm to midnight, then nothing.

Screenshot_20171226_164438.thumb.png.beeed5218ae5b863b3ccc1b21e396d1f.png

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3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Sorry guys..

You will also need to turn the precipitation type on, the animation to 'on'. and you will see what I spotted! 

 Also the 'zoom' to 'out' , to see where South Wales was!!!.

 MIA

That’s the Brecons.

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12 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

That’s the Brecons.

Gusty...

 I thought so too, but it stretches all the way  along the South Wales coast to Pembroke  (St Davids). I am not sure its really an accurate effect. Maybe being caused by the extremely heavy precipitation in the area.

 MIA

Edit - temp now down to 4.0C and rain just starting here also.

Needs to drop a couple of degrees further to have a chance.

BUt widespread sleet is being shown to out south west now on the radar.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Gusty...

 I thought so too, but it stretches all the way  along the South Wales coast to Pembroke  (St Davids). I am not sure its really an accurate effect. Maybe being caused by the extremely heavy precipitation in the area.

 MIA

Over in Pembrokeshire you have the preseli hills which I see on the radar it is snowing.

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4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Moderate rain now here. 3.9c

The rain was forecasted though!!hopefully for not too long!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

The rain was forecasted though!!hopefully for not too long!!

Another 5 or 6 hours of rain supposedly :\ booo. Bring the snow :D

 

 

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Temp 1c Dp -0.9c just need the rain here now..

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4.5c and rain. Quite a lot on radar still 

edit now 4c dropping.

 

Edited by Barometer Cat

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31 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Gusty...

 I thought so too, but it stretches all the way  along the South Wales coast to Pembroke  (St Davids). I am not sure its really an accurate effect. Maybe being caused by the extremely heavy precipitation in the area.

 MIA

Edit - temp now down to 4.0C and rain just starting here also.

Needs to drop a couple of degrees further to have a chance.

BUt widespread sleet is being shown to out south west now on the radar.

Not sure, but I know Brecons get as far west as Swansea, which looks about where the area of sleet/snow ends currently.

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