The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[Cov87]

Dont think any of the models or the metoffice are confident in predicting how much snow will fall or even settle!

[TheIceManCometh]

I don't see this panning out that well for Coventry. The Met nailed it last time and this time they're moving it South....

[Supacell]

I am hoping that the GFS is correct. It is an outside bet but there is a small chance it may come off and if it does then there will be a good covering of snow across the entire Midlands (including the likes of Derbyshire/Staffordshire/Nottinghamshire). If ECM is correct then it brings the same torturous near miss for us in the NE Midlands as what happened two weeks ago. 

BBC seem quite keen on mentioning the Peak District which would be good for me too. Currently we are looking at everything from widespread sleet or rain to a dumping of snow, and this dumping could occur anywhere from the Peak District to the South Midlands into north London. Basically, anything could happen and this will come down to nowcasting once more.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Supacell

[Staffordshire]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am hoping that the GFS is correct. It is an outside bet but there is a small chance it may come off and if it does then there will be a good covering of snow across the entire Midlands (including the likes of Derbyshire/Staffordshire/Nottinghamshire). If ECM is correct then it brings the same torturous near miss for us in the NE Midlands as what happened two weeks ago. 

BBC seem quite keen on mentioning the Peak District which would be good for me too. Currently we are looking at everything from widespread sleet or rain to a dumping of snow, and this dumping could occur anywhere from the Peak District to the South Midlands into north London. Basically, anything could happen and this will come down to nowcasting once more.

Unfortunately for us a touch further north, it is the gfs on our side, which isn't what we want, I am inclined to side with the meto on this one.

[Supacell]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Unfortunately for us a touch further north, it is the gfs on our side, which isn't what we want, I am inclined to side with the meto on this one.

I will be interested to see the updated warnings from the met office. Currently we are looking at yesterdays warnings which means the north Midlands are covered, but the forecasts since yesterday evening have had it running further south than this (missing the north of the region). The BBC forecast is still further north and so we have two accurate short term forecasting agencies showing a slightly different distribution. To be fair we are talking 20-30 miles which is a tiny distance in the grand scheme of things, but a vital 20-30 miles all the same.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Unfortunately for us a touch further north, it is the gfs on our side, which isn't what we want, I am inclined to side with the meto on this one.

0Z GFS snow risk map gives an idea at the moment that a large area of the Midlands is covered for a potential covering.....how much is the ?

[Staffordshire]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I will be interested to see the updated warnings from the met office. Currently we are looking at yesterdays warnings which means the north Midlands are covered, but the forecasts since yesterday evening have had it running further south than this (missing the north of the region). The BBC forecast is still further north and so we have two accurate short term forecasting agencies showing a slightly different distribution. To be fair we are talking 20-30 miles which is a tiny distance in the grand scheme of things, but a vital 20-30 miles all the same.

You're right, 20/30 miles will make all the difference.

 

DWW, I believe the snow risk map highlights the chance of snow falling, e.g are parameters ideal for snow to fall, and not actually where the snow will be falling. So that chart shows deep red into west/North Yorkshire, but that doesn't mean there will be any notable ppn to (could just be a few flurries)

[MattStoke]

BBC TV forecast said snow widely to low levels for the Midlands and Wales, and higher ground of the South East.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

You're right, 20/30 miles will make all the difference.

 

DWW, I believe the snow risk map highlights the chance of snow falling, e.g are parameters ideal for snow to fall, and not actually where the snow will be falling. So that chart shows deep red into west/North Yorkshire, but that doesn't mean there will be any notable ppn to (could just be a few flurries)

Agreed....That's why I stated "potential covering" but where and how much is the ?

Just think a week ago we didn't have a hope in Hell's chance of any of this as the models was just full on mild zonal muck.....instead an Interesting 12 to 18hrs coming up 

[marksp]

going to be a classic nowcast, GFS shows coldest 850s to the north of region, but more garanteed ppn to the south.

Hope I cam post these images in here ??

[Staffordshire]

Big move SE'wards from the meto, even including areas south of London, not good for the NW of the region.

[Cov87]

2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Big move SE'wards from the meto, even including areas south of London, not good for the NW of the region.

I dont think thats good for the whole of the midlands!!!

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

I dont think thats good for the whole of the midlands!!!

BBC Forecast just now...

 Up to 25 - 45 mms of rainfall equivalent (in places) forecast just now (he muttered a bit, at this point!).

Still not prepared to talk in terms of the snowfall, but has snow widely across the Midlands on his map...??????

MIA

[Staffordshire]

10 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

I dont think thats good for the whole of the midlands!!!

Coventry is fantastically placed, you have nothing to worry about.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

post by andymusic not promising in Welsh thread, just looks like sleety mix?

[weirpig]

Midlands sweet spot. Husky rides by the floozy 

[kev238]

The slightly updated warning clearly disregards the ECM take on things 

[kmanmx]

Considering the MetO have literally no mention of any accumulations just "standing water and snow", they seem to be confident this is going to be much more of a wet affair than it is a snowy one ? any falling snow expected to rapidly turn to grey slush ?. It seems like they are applying a bit of their human touch to the forecast and warnings. Models just show rain early turning to potentially heavy snow later, but perhaps they are expecting it to be more marginal and so sleet and rain mixed in.

 

edit:

So they do mention accumulations..

"Showers of rain, sleet and snow are expected overnight, with snow most likely inland away from immediate coastal areas and over hills. The extent of ice will vary across the area with inland areas most prone whilst coastal areas exposed to the northerly winds are less likely to be affected. 1 or 2 cm of snow may accumulate above about 100 m with temporary deposits at lower levels, mainly late in the night."

Edited December 26, 2017 by kmanmx

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Midlands sweet spot. Husky rides by the floozy 

Weirpig...

 This map sorts of shows why it is likely to be in a 'my back yard' event.

We do not have the ingrained cold that we had a couple of weeks ago ahead of the depression.

 This shows 'only' the top 20 - 30 miles having heavy snow at this point.

The really colder air then arrives down from Scotland as the centre of the low moves just to the east of us..

The snow machine then gets going over the wider Midlands area. 

It could be a widespread rain to snow event for us and will entail some exciting lamp post watching!!!

Anywhere that starts as snow will end up with a huge dollop.

 Still more than an inch of rainfall equivalent forecast. So areas could well be seeing around 10 inches of snowfall in about 6  - 8hours. That is some snowfall.

MIA 

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

The latest NMM'S ......ALSO THIS MODEL GOT IT BANG ON A FEW WEEKS

[kmanmx]

8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Weirpig...

 This map sorts of shows why it is likely to be in a 'my back yard' event.

We do not have the ingrained cold that we had a couple of weeks ago ahead of the depression.

 This shows 'only' the top 20 - 30 miles having heavy snow at this point.

The really colder air then arrives down from Scotland as the centre of the low moves just to the east of us..

The snow machine then gets going over the wider Midlands area. 

It could be a widespread rain to snow event for us and will entail some exciting lamp post watching!!!

Anywhere that starts as snow will end up with a huge dollop.

 Still more than an inch of rainfall equivalent forecast. So areas could well be seeing around 10 inches of snowfall in about 6  - 8hours. That is some snowfall.

MIA 

 

 

That would indeed be true ! But Met Office don't seem to give any chance of this, they seem pretty dead set on a rain/sleet/snow mix through the region right through the night. They even only suggest 1 or 2cm may settle, they are not even confident on that amount, let alone 10 inches!

 

6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The latest NMM'S ......ALSO THIS MODEL GOT IT BANG ON A FEW WEEKS

 

Looks good ! I wish they should show locations on these maps, I think Leicester is right on the edge of the snow at pretty much all times, but it's hard to tell without an exact location dot

Edited December 26, 2017 by kmanmx

[Dancerwithwings]

The Met Office and the NMM'S if I remember was in it together ( bang on par ) with the last dumping we had and now they are miles apart

If the NMM'S are right some of us will be getting...... as MIA stated...... 6 to 8 hrs of it

Edited December 26, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[kmanmx]

Well not sure about the rest of you guys, but no work tomorrow - so I can stay up pretty damn late lamp post watching

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The latest NMM'S ......ALSO THIS MODEL GOT IT BANG ON A FEW WEEKS

Interesting DWW...

 BBC charts just shown show the snow moving east into Lincolnshire and then south into the central southern areas before dieing out.  That is not shown on the charts you show, which does not get it into the east Midlands and then sinks it into S Wales and SW England, then dieing out. Either way it looks Ok for us, but other people could see dramatic differences.

In other words - no one knows. The BBC are by far and away the 'scrooges' at this time of year.

MIA

 Edit 

Although the BBC forecast snow last-time they were way down on the amounts that fell in areas south and west  of Bham. They were correct in areas North and East. They talked of 5-10 cms for low land areas and we received just over 20 cms. as did many others S and W of us. The model above went for 20 cms. 

 So again its a lamppost watching night.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, kmanmx said:

Well not sure about the rest of you guys, but no work tomorrow - so I can stay up pretty damn late lamp post watching

And me expect a boxing day party to attend.....Can't be bad staying up all night getting watching it snow