The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

Looks like north midlands going to miss out on most of it this time 

I'd say the NW Midlands could see quite a bit.

[Matty23]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I'd say the NW Midlands could see quite a bit.

Really looking at euro4 it's been pushed South quite alot

[Cov87]

Think birmingham to east of our region will do.very well!!!

[WillinGlossop]

I’ve already had a White Christmas.....I got a snow machine for Christmas... I can now guarantee snow on New Year’s Eve for party.....

Edited December 25, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

Really looking at euro4 it's been pushed South quite alot

Others models have it further north. See what the 12zs bring, I guess.

Hoping I might see a little in NW Greater London.

[Staffordshire]

35 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh unless things change on the 12z it looks like central and east midlands is where the heaviest snow is gona be!!

Maybe a bit of IMBY there shaky... I think central/southern parts of West Midlands (probably south of Brum) along with Wales will do best.

 

essentially the same areas that got the best stuff last time, will see it again. North of brum maybe a cm or 2.

[shaky]

Latest icon 12z further south by about 20-30 miles!!gives 15-20cms across central/east/south midlands!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Does this not look a little more marginal than last time?

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Does this not look a little more marginal than last time?

Yeah. Last time was all snow for the Midlands. Rain to snow this time.

 

[shaky]

Gfs 12z same as before!!rain to snow event!!!

[Sparkiee storm]

3 hours ago, shaky said:

Got a feeling the warnings are playin this down a bit!!theres is definately a chance of more than just 2-5cms of snow!!chris fawkes has just tweeted aswell mentioning much larger totals are definately possible!!

That's what I'm thinking especially as it looks like its gonna be more marginal too, deep thick cover of 10 - 15cm I'm thinking too.

[Matty23]

Met office forecast changed to just rain in Shrewsbury now so I don't think any snow this far north 

[MattStoke]

Big downgrade from the Euro4. Much further south.

[shaky]

Euro4 is south ecm is slightly further north and gives 6 inches widely across the midlands!!10 inches for wales nearly!!

[weirpig]

greatest likelihood (0-2cm low elevations; locally 2-5; & to 10cm some uplands N'wrd into W Midlands). Other areas Weds AM may see ca 1cm >100m; 1-3cm >200m

fergies take on things

[Matthew Gill]

Downgrade from the BBC to 10 hours of sleet here.

[Matty23]

Yea big downgrade now I think for even central midlands more of a South event this. Unless ecm is more on the mark 

[Supacell]

Well the last snow event pretty much missed here and this looks to take a very similar track, although more marginal and so elevation will likely be more of a requirement. If this was to shift 50 miles north or expand in coverage northwards then it would hammer the Peak District.

[Dancerwithwings]

24 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

Yea big downgrade now I think for even central midlands more of a South event this. Unless ecm is more on the mark 

12z NMM seems to go along with that idea.....but will be nailed tomorrow methinks.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[kmanmx]

Ignore the bad run, all the pro's are off for Christmas, the data input into the models was probably left to recently minted university graduates with no experience and were forced to work Xmas

Ye have little faith! just remember, MetO pretty much NAILED the event from a few weeks ago, and they nailed it about 24 to 48hr before the models started agreeing. It was pretty damn good from them. They still have 95% of us in the warning area, so i'm sure they know what's going down

 

I have faith!

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Even the meto are unsure so will be down to now-casting as which I enjoy the most. Here's NetW wx hi rez take.

Currently very heavy rain here just now bouncing off the roof/Windows. Hope all are enjoying there Christmas.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

Chris fawkes just tweeted according to ecm 12z midlands and wales still on 15-20cms+!!now includes london!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Matty23 said:

Looks like north midlands going to miss out on most of it this time 

Merry Xmas to you too Matty!

[WillinGlossop]

55 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Well the last snow event pretty much missed here and this looks to take a very similar track, although more marginal and so elevation will likely be more of a requirement. If this was to shift 50 miles north or expand in coverage northwards then it would hammer the Peak District.

Yep exactly.... oh well... radar says snow atm but heavyish sleety rain...2c.... better luck next time...

[kmanmx]

I forgot to mention, I also have my own supercomputer weather model and it is better than all the rest. Infact latest 20z output (my model outputs 0.1km resolution models every hour of the day) is showing 30 to 40cm from M4 through to the northernmost extent of the midlands, and it is predicting this with a 100% certainty (with a 3% confidence interval).

Time for another tipple me thinks while the 21z rolls out from the Kmanmxinator2000 super computer.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2017 by kmanmx