The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, shaky said:

Ideally we want arpege and euro4 slightly south still!!ecmwf is perfect but am not sure if its right!!!you think ecm would be on the money with its higher resolution but am not so sure this time!!

chart posted by Will above though, not promising, seems like a high ground event to me

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

chart posted by Will above though, not promising, seems like a high ground event to me

BBC just showed a rain to snow event for most of the Midlands, though the North West Midlands may have an all snow event..

No warnings issued yet as they are 'watching'.

EC looks perfect for us, and the BBC charts look very good.

They also talked about flooding in East Anglia.

Looks like something quite big, but will it be cold enough?

MIA 

 

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

chart posted by Will above though, not promising, seems like a high ground event to me

Yeh that didnt look to good which is why the lack of warnings!!also it seems as though gfs has trumped ecm with this slider so far with gfs being consistent with its track but ecm going further north with each run!!will know better by 12z!!

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

BBC just showed a rain to snow event for most of the Midlands, though the North West Midlands may have an all snow event..

No warnings issued yet as they are 'watching'.

EC looks perfect for us, and the BBC charts look very good.

They also talked about flooding in East Anglia.

Looks like something quite big, but will it be cold enough?

MIA 

 

Ecm is an all snow event!!gfs is rain to snow so gfs is most likely right now!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Icon 06z gives torrential snow for the midlands lol!!i know i keep banging on bout the icon but its been the most steady out of all the models right now!!

[The Wolf]

BBC weather forecast online doesnt look great.  No warnings out either.

[shaky]

40cms now for east midlands according to icon but i dont believe that at all!!and is similar to the ecm by the way!!

Edited December 25, 2017 by shaky

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

BBC weather forecast online doesnt look great.  No warnings out either.

yes, bbc not on board at all, complete non event for them

[weirpig]

Little ramp from Chris 

Snow lovers get a Christmas treat 27 December, could get 15-20cm+ parts of Wales & Midlands. Still a little uncertainty in amounts & position of snow but travel chaos could ensue, check before traveling!

[MattStoke]

BBC TV forecast talking about snow to high ground. Still, that's an upgrade from the all rain event they were showing before.

[BarometerCat]

Merry Christmas!! 

Milder today as was last few days and as expected really.... Tomorrow and Wednesday looking like there is 'potential' though. Looks like Midlands might see something again even short lived.

Enjoy Christmas whatever the weather!

[shaky]

Gfs 06z same as 00z run!!snow midlands and wales!!

[shaky]

30 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Little ramp from Chris 

Snow lovers get a Christmas treat 27 December, could get 15-20cm+ parts of Wales & Midlands. Still a little uncertainty in amounts & position of snow but travel chaos could ensue, check before traveling!

Maybe a clue of what the warnings will look like later if given out!!

[Fozfoster]

Would be nice to see snow ⛄️ in this festive season ? happy Christmas to all you midlanders 

[MattStoke]

Almost making me wish I wasn't away for Christmas!

[shaky]

Euro4 further south and pretty much snow all the way for us!!

[Summer Sun]

Snow and rain warning issued

Between 18:00 Tue 26th and 11:00 Wed 27th

Heavy rain turning to snow in places. An area of heavy rain will extend north and east across the area later on Tuesday and last though Tuesday night, easing away from eastern areas on Wednesday. The rain is likely to turn to snow in places, initially across Wales and then across parts of central England and eventually some of the higher ground in counties north and west of London. Some roads and railways are likely to be affected by longer journey times due to standing water or snow. There is also a smaller chance that individual homes and businesses could be flooded.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system moving east across southern England is likely to bring a mix of heavy rain and snow. 15-25 mm of rain is likely quite widely within the warning area with some places receiving 30-40 mm. As the rain becomes increasingly heavy, it is likely to turn to snow in places, initially over parts of Wales and perhaps the Peak District then over central England in the early hours of Wednesday. Snow may fall to increasingly low levels, giving a cm or two in places. with 2-5 cm accumulating locally above 100 m, and perhaps 10 cm in a few places. These larger amounts are more likely over Wales whilst East Anglia and Lincolnshire see little or no snow. There is low confidence in the balance between rain and snow with marked variations likely from place to place in the amounts of any snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-12-27

[Staffordshire]

Afternoon midlanders and a merry Christmas to you all. Keeping one eye on Wednesday, although I am not too confident in anything notable at the minute.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Staffordshire

[Sparkiee storm]

Merry Christmas midlanders

Am I right in thinking that we received much more snow then the warning suggested in out last snow event?

If so it may be the same here, hopefully 

[Snowy L]

Almost looks like a copy of the boxing day snow event in 2014 too, on the same day this year too. Funny how that happens.

[shaky]

53 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Merry Christmas midlanders

Am I right in thinking that we received much more snow then the warning suggested in out last snow event?

If so it may be the same here, hopefully 

Got a feeling the warnings are playin this down a bit!!theres is definately a chance of more than just 2-5cms of snow!!chris fawkes has just tweeted aswell mentioning much larger totals are definately possible!!

[WillinGlossop]

53 minutes ago, shaky said:

Got a feeling the warnings are playin this down a bit!!theres is definately a chance of more than just 2-5cms of snow!!chris fawkes has just tweeted aswell mentioning much larger totals are definately possible!!

Netweather and Xcweather going for between 15-20cm here.... 

[Matty23]

Looks like north midlands going to miss out on most of it this time 

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, Matty23 said:

Looks like north midlands going to miss out on most of it this time 

Yeh unless things change on the 12z it looks like central and east midlands is where the heaviest snow is gona be!!