The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[MattStoke]

But it’s going to be the most potent NWly in years! I got stick in the model forum for saying it wouldn’t. Meh.

[MattStoke]

Automated forecasts show nothing of interest but the Met Office written forecast at least mentions the chance of some wintriness before the vile wind and rain sweeps in mid week.

I think after dark Tuesday may give the best chance for quite a few of us to see a covering, with settling snow during the day time over higher ground.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MattStoke

[MattStoke]

Plenty of troughs in the flow. Could get fairly busy on here Tuesday night.

[Polar Maritime]

Lots of uncertainties from the Meto reg the Peak District. An interesting week coming up with some very active weather on the cards.

"Peak District

Confidence

High confidence for less cold, and turning wet overnight into Monday, and for a change to colder weather thereafter, with snow showers. Low confidence for details Wednesday night into Thursday, including extent of any snow and strength of winds. This due to a deep area of low pressure signalled to cross the UK, with large uncertainties regarding its exact track and depth at this stage."

Edited January 14, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Midlands Ice Age]

To try and build a bit of positivity....

Anyone notice how cold it is getting today?

My temps have fallen during the morning from 3.7C to 3.0C now...

With a moderate southerly wind???

I thought it is was supposed to be getting warmer today?

MIA

[WillinGlossop]

Was 3c earlier now 2.2c.... dull out....roast leg of lamb in oven with stuffing, roast tats...  logburner Lit...birds out everywhere, very busy bird feeders, geese in field behind making a racket... watching skiing on Eurosport... looking forward to football at 4pm... might break open a cider for it... still lookslike snow showers with lots of instability tues/wed then thurs night/Friday, met forecast for Peak District still uncertain for we’d night/thurs.... but still going for snow showers... at least high res models now coming into view... I’d guess met update warnings either this evening/tom morning... 

[Dancerwithwings]

32 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Was 3c earlier now 2.2c.... dull out....roast leg of lamb in oven with stuffing, roast tats...  logburner Lit...birds out everywhere, very busy bird feeders, geese in field behind making a racket... watching skiing on Eurosport... looking forward to football at 4pm... might break open a cider for it... still lookslike snow showers with lots of instability tues/wed then thurs night/Friday, met forecast for Peak District still uncertain for we’d night/thurs.... but still going for snow showers... at least high res models now coming into view... I’d guess met update warnings either this evening/tom morning... 

Sounds lovely and in midwinter.....Can't beat it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z, possibly warmest 2nd half of Jan on record, from next Sunday at least

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS 12Z....Tuesday is starting to look more promising, so by teatime...850's at -7...Dp's at -2 to -3 and temps around 1 to 2c.....With possible snow showers....WIND CHILL 

• 7 minutes ago

[snowstorm27x]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

GFS 12Z....Tuesday is starting to look more promising, so by teatime...850's at -7...Dp's at -2 to -3 and temps around 1 to 2c.....With possible snow showers....WIND CHILL 

• 7 minutes ago

Looks good I think we have all focused on the low and forgot about our snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Looks good I think we have all focused on the low and forgot about our snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

WELL YES! Keep your hats on time!!!

One good thing the warmer sector with RAIN of course will be overnight so by the time the rain clears will be getting up with colder uppers inplace and wintry showers come the afternoon.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[snowstorm27x]

10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

WELL YES! Keep your hats on time!!!

One good thing the warmer sector with RAIN of course will be overnight so by the time the rain clears will be getting up with colder uppers inplace and wintry showers come the afternoon.

That looks really nasty. Do you think they have the track nailed for the low yet. Think my patio furniture might be put in the house lol.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, snowstorm27x said:

That looks really nasty. Do you think they have the track nailed for the low yet. Think my patio furniture might be put in the house lol.

Not yet, could be a little further North or South, All depends on how it deepens and how much, plus the Jet stream, that ATM is going straight over our region come Thursday Morning.

If you look at this chart the so called Low hasn't even registered yet, but it's there just about... X marks the spot

 

[cyclonic happiness]

The BBC forecast just get worse.

Apparently it's going to get much colder next week, with temps of 6-8'c!!  Woah! that will make today's 4.5'c seem tropical! 

[DIS1970]

Looking at the current output for this region, a dusting of snow was the most we can expect, though with the winds and temps, that seems more and more unlikely. I've never known snow to settle with temperatures above freezing overnight, it's just becoming more farfetched with each output.

[weirpig]

Regardless of if it snows or not. The wind is by far the biggest concern. Hopefully it will be nothing like Doris. Which brought destruction and fatalities 

[MattStoke]

38 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The BBC forecast just get worse.

Apparently it's going to get much colder next week, with temps of 6-8'c!!  Woah! that will make today's 4.5'c seem tropical! 

Really can't understand how temperatures are going to be similar to or even higher than those of the past week.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Looking at the current output for this region, a dusting of snow was the most we can expect, though with the winds and temps, that seems more and more unlikely. I've never known snow to settle with temperatures above freezing overnight, it's just becoming more farfetched with each output.

Seen snow settle at night with air temperatures above freezing dozens of times. It happened at least twice back in December.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Looking at the current output for this region, a dusting of snow was the most we can expect, though with the winds and temps, that seems more and more unlikely. I've never known snow to settle with temperatures above freezing overnight, it's just becoming more farfetched with each output.

Can do in April and May, but this time of year, temps have to be much colder

[DIS1970]

That low still isn't nailed on yet as it hasn't developed yet, let alone it's depth and direction, i was merely commenting on the type of precipitation expected next week by many different models.

[DIS1970]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Seen snow settle at night with air temperatures above freezing dozens of times. It happened at least twice back in December.

I agree, it just depends on how heavy it is and the length of time it falls for.

[markw2680]

Wouldn’t worry about the bbc temps etc, they are just vague for city centres and that. If it says 4 it will more likely be about 2 unless your in the town centres, regarding the low on Wednesday/Thursday it’s not nailed yet there will be more changes, I expect a few showers between now and then and we may get a good covering. You never no and nw winds are probably the best I’d say for our location

[The Wolf]

Late Tuesday afternoon/ Tuesday night still good for some snow?

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

Late Tuesday afternoon/ Tuesday night still good for some snow?

I'd say that's the best opportunity for a covering or maybe even a few cm to low levels.

[The Wolf]

Looks like game over for any long cold spell now. Indeed next week could be very mild. The snow in December was great but this month and the outlook are pathetic at present.