The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

WTF! just seen the 6Z

 

252...

 Have you seen the 12Z.????

It is like  the 6Z with steroids!!

The one you have identified is still on.....

but it has been joined by another 24 hours later...

 and there seems to be another piling in for 2 days later.

WTFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!!! 

 Looks like 50 cms of snow falling. But how much of it will melt?

 Anyway back to today.

 Looks like most days this week. Dull and cool, but not as cold as earlier on.

Minimum temp today 4.7C. Maximum 6.1C.

Signs of the cloud clearing now so could be a frost before the rain tomorrow.

MIA 

[MattStoke]

That feature is still there on the 12z, a long with a few others.

Really can’t tell whether the projected wind direction next week is favourable for showers here. Useless at pinpointing stoke on these charts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

big 3 show the runner, just wish there was an EC 132 chart

[snowstorm27x]

Things are looking very tasty from Tuesday onwards. Two streamers and a runner all predicted to hit the Midlands I think Buxton is going to get smashed I think up to 60 cms could fall there between Tuesday to Sunday. Thats if the models are correct off course. Anywhere could see significant Snow.

[MattStoke]

Think the far north of the region will see the most wintry showers (hoping that includes here but not sure).

The ‘slider’ low(s) more uncertain. Most model output takes it further south with perhaps only the far south of the region affected.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Think the far north of the region will see the most wintry showers (hoping that includes here but not sure).

The ‘slider’ low(s) more uncertain. Most model output takes it further south with perhaps only the far south of the region affected.

Mmmmmmm  GFS 18Z  Just mega fun at this stage Matt 

[MattStoke]

Troughs in the flow may increase the shower risk.

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Troughs in the flow may increase the shower risk.

With the flow that strong I'm not surprised at all....It's been weird so far this winter... all the best cold and snow we've had so far has been from the West or Northwest

Next week is going to feel bitter 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[The Wolf]

I said earlier in this thread not to discount what next week may bring. Very unstable air and unusually cold from NW. 

[WillinGlossop]

Updated 18z netweather going for 62cm here..... Xcweather 78cm..... metcheck 68cm....

[FENDER.]

BBC weather is having none of it. temps around 4c,  rain and sleet, with some light snow showers at times.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648405

[FENDER.]

Way too much ramping and hope casting, on the main forum today, with talk of dumping and getting pasted.   I like snow as much as anyone, but until the Met and BBC come on board, I  remain skeptical.

As it stands they are going for 4/5c over most of the Midlands  for most of next week. Some showers of mainly rain/sleet. and some areas having little in the way of precipitation.

 

 

[MattStoke]

Can’t understand how the BBC are seeing temperatures similar to or even higher than we have had this week under a colder air mass with strong NW winds and showers which would knock temperatures down.

[snowstorm27x]

Bit of a downgrade today as everything is much further North and the dreaded mild sector puts us wet rather than white. Ukmo still looks good so for the Midlands it's on a knife edge now need things bk further South still time for plenty of twists and turns yet.

DAMM MILD SECTOR.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Bit of a downgrade today as everything is much further North and the dreaded mild sector puts us wet rather than white. Ukmo still looks good so for the Midlands it's on a knife edge now need things bk further South still time for plenty of twists and turns yet.

DAMM MILD SECTOR.

It'll correct S closer to the day, I'm sure. Most modelling doesn't blow up the low pressure as much as the GFS. For the Midlands you want some development of the wave but not too much like GFS shows.

[snowstorm27x]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It'll correct S closer to the day, I'm sure. Most modelling doesn't blow up the low pressure as much as the GFS. For the Midlands you want some development of the wave but not too much like GFS shows.

Hope so, Yh I was shocked when I saw it was way further North normally these trend south. Also damm mild sector could scupper us all but plenty more runs to come and yh the other models don't agree. Midlands might of already had it's luck for the winter lol.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Still cloudy here..

A bit breezier and slightly cooler than yesterday.

Temp now 5.2c after a minimum of 4.7C overnight. Wind SE moderate.

Looks as if the front out west is stalling and not reaching us against the block to the east.

 

My - it is looking interesting for next week. We need things to go our way yet again if we are to see any meaningful snowfall.

Still  it has been our year so far, so we perhaps can be lucky again.

Concerning the BBC forecasts, I saw a forecast for a maximum of 9C for Monday. last night on TV.  We will see.

MIA

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

deep FI this, but the 2nd GFS run to show a good Cheshire Gap flow for Fri night/Sat am, cannot see many low levels getting any snow before Friday

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

deep FI this, but the 2nd GFS run to show a good Cheshire Gap flow for Fri night/Sat am, cannot see many low levels getting any snow before Friday

I'll have you on that....

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[Stationary Front]

Can anyone post Jan 1984 charts? I got stuck driving from Leamington  to Coventry in 3ft drifts. Not sure of the date I think it may have been mid month?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

need a track similar to GEM, hopefully GFS 0p is overblowing the low, need a shallow feature, UKMO looks okay, but cannot make out correct time

[MattStoke]

BBC week ahead forecast showing the low mid week. Far from nailed yet.

[DIS1970]

Quiet in here, i guess most have seen the GFS 18z run.

[snowstorm27x]

Think I will call time on our snow chances now nearly all models agree the low being even further North and has us at 10c. Also longevity of cold spell now looks to be gone. Wind and flooding look to be the issue now. Thank god we had the snow in December or phone might have been smashed lol. Still 4 days and we can but hope for changes but it dosent look good at present.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snowless January coming up for many low levels, 00Z's promise warm, shorts/flip flop days