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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

What i find amusing is the beeb and there forecast at 9am it showed coventry having 6hrs of heavy snow from midnight then it changed again to forecasting sleet for 6hrs and now has us down for 6hrs of heavy snow again...??

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

What i find amusing is the beeb and there forecast at 9am it showed coventry having 6hrs of heavy snow from midnight then it changed again to forecasting sleet for 6hrs and now has us down for 6hrs of heavy snow again...??

Judging by the fact there is very little consensus between the models, it pretty much boils down to "we have no idea".

Check again at 6pm once it's started to arrive and there should be some more clarity...

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

Thought it might be interesting to compare the models 2pm prediction to the current radar.

Radar

rXOjwJt.png

Hirlam

OKUCtC7.png

Arpege

E83ebOv.png

 

NMM 2km

PjVCLFc.png

 

NMM 0.05deg

Xz2dILw.png

 

ICON

bgDW3Cn.png


GFS

s7Gzscz.png

 

Euro4 (but 3pm, no 2pm available)

aEuvOD7.png

 

Hirlam, EURO4 and GFS look closest to me. ICON pretty good too. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
19 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Thought it might be interesting to compare the models 2pm prediction to the current radar.

Radar

rXOjwJt.png

Hirlam

OKUCtC7.png

Arpege

E83ebOv.png

 

NMM 2km

PjVCLFc.png

 

NMM 0.05deg

Xz2dILw.png

 

ICON

bgDW3Cn.png


GFS

s7Gzscz.png

 

Euro4 (but 3pm, no 2pm available)

aEuvOD7.png

 

Hirlam, EURO4 and GFS look closest to me. ICON pretty good too. 

Icon looks spot on!!

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
18 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Thought it might be interesting to compare the models 2pm prediction to the current radar.

Radar

rXOjwJt.png

 

Hirlam, EURO4 and GFS look closest to me. ICON pretty good too. 

That is a REALLY useful set of images - thankyou very much for the time and effort in doing that. It's the only way we can really learn which models are more reliable or less reliable for types of weather pattern. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon looks spot on!!

Hope so.....The Icon starts turning the rain to snow over South Wales early evening and the Midlands by 10pm then 10hrs later..... BURIED :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

It's going to be pretty boring in 30 or 40 years when the models are deadly accurate 3 or 4 days out... I think this is part of the fun when we still don't really know and it's less than 12 hours a way :)

 

Edited by kmanmx
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, kmanmx said:

Admittedly, the kmanmxinator2000 supercomputer has known to be somewhat optimistic while intoxicated during the festive period.

 

 

in that case LW252 computer suggests sleety mess for most

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Latest from here.

High level  cirrus/strata suddenly appeared from no where after a clear blue sky, and it was orientated WSW to ENE.

Low grey cumulous have suddenly filled the sky. It has changed in half an hour from brilliant blue to dark grey.

I can still see the blue sky to the north.

Temperature has fallen from 5.7c (max 6.1C) an hour ago, to 5.0C now. Would have been happier with a bit lower!.

Colder air is not due to arrive here until after 22:00.

 What are other temps across our area?

 MIA

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

Currently 4.7'C on the Malvern Hills. Clouded over from the SW, can still see a slot of clearer sky to the North. Turned very dreary, hoping for snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

5c here in cloudy Burbage. Trending drop in last half hour.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 minute ago, kev238 said:

BBC clearly not buying ECM slant. They don't expect much settling at all let alone the values on ECM

 

 

I remember the BBC website nowcasting rain while it was snowing outside in the last boxing day snow event. The events look incredibly similar.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I remember the BBC website nowcasting rain while it was snowing outside in the last boxing day snow event. The events look incredibly similar.

it does, good event here that, but this is more south, northern areas got snow in '14

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

I always wonder if there is any other 'input' into the forecast other than from forecasters. E.g. pressure from retail groups to not put out a forecast that would stop people going to the post-xmas shopping sales ? 

 

Very tin foil hat-ish but you never know with the world how it is these days :D

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
5 minutes ago, Herefordweather said:

Heavy sleet in Merthyr 

 

Hmm ? supposed to be 4c  there and pure rain according to MetO ?

Edited by kmanmx
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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Radar shows precipitation turning to sleet and snow in wales!!

Yes good news, models not showing any snow til 6pm really. So already sleety/snowy now is a good sign. 

Also precipitation seems a bit ahead of schedule, further NE than predicted at this time ?

Edited by kmanmx
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Yes good news, models not showing any snow til 6pm really. So already sleety/snowy now is a good sign. 

Also precipitation seems a bit ahead of schedule, further NE than predicted at this time ?

Does that mean it will go further north and maybe not as good for us!!looks inline with ecm so far!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Just now, shaky said:

Does that mean it will go further north and maybe not as good for us!!looks inline with ecm so far!!

Not necessarily, absolute position could still be same as models, just arriving quicker than thought. Who knows... will make an interesting night watching the lamps though :D

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