The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[Cov87]

20-30cms for the midlands??

[Staffordshire]

7 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

20-30cms for the midlands??

Quite strange hearing that as it would be good news for me, but I really thought this would be more for the southern Midlands...

[Cov87]

Yeah he has just tweeted that which has come as a big surpise. Think at the moment somewhere between birmingham to Leicester is going to get some seriously heavy snow fall for 4-6 hours.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bbc giving my area just pure rain, not cold either at 3C, not on board yet

[Fozfoster]

Looking like a second snow event for us ❄️?? in less than a month, now that’s rare. 

[Staffordshire]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc giving my area just pure rain, not cold either at 3C, not on board yet

I'm with you for the minute here Mark, not overly confident of much, hoping Fawkes has some greater insight and will prove me wrong

[kev238]

I think Chris Fawkes is stating what ECM shows rather than the Met Office position 

It clearly states all views are his own. Perhaps it will end up with 20 cm across the midlands. If so, the MO will have to amend their warnings later if they give credibility to the ECM model 

[Summer Sun]

40 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

20-30cms for the midlands??

Yep ECM giving parts of the Midlands it's second major dumping of snow within a month

[shaky]

Jesus!!!just looked at the ecm snow charts and the midlands gets destroyed with snow tonight lol!!12 inches!!!maybe kmnamx was on on to something with his own weather model!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Jesus!!!just looked at the ecm snow charts and the midlands gets destroyed with snow tonight lol!!12 inches!!!maybe kmnamx was on on to something with his own weather model!!

south of the region though, SS posted them above

[Cov87]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

south of the region though, SS posted them above

Yeah birmingham south looking like the sweet spot

[Dancerwithwings]

The Met Office ain't having none of this 12 inches malarkey

 UPDATE AT 8AM  "The snow mainly confined to the hills, but may also settle to lower levels, this clearing later. Minimum temperature 0 °C"

The last dumping we had they were spot on, so a little concerning................But in my eyes 12" inches it is.....God bless the ECM 

[kev238]

The comparison between the ECM snow charts and the Met Office Automated forecasts on the app is start 

No snow symbols on the app for Leicester but a foot (ish) on the ECM

I can't believe the ECM has this right. Perhaps the truth will be somewhere in the middle 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Yeah birmingham south looking like the sweet spot

I think you mean i wide sweet spot of nottingham south according to the ecm!!

[shaky]

If ecm is right and remember ecm is run at a high resolution then met office gona have to amend quickly or they gona have egg on their faces!!

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, kev238 said:

The comparison between the ECM snow charts and the Met Office Automated forecasts on the app is start 

No snow symbols on the app for Leicester but a foot (ish) on the ECM

I can't believe the ECM has this right. Perhaps the truth will be somewhere in the middle 

sleet

[MattStoke]

I can't see much agreement between the various models. Even here in London some models give heavy snow and others just rain.

Edited December 26, 2017 by MattStoke

[conor123]

Hey all! long time no see 

My first time in the UK in a long, long time and looking at the 06z GFS we might get something this evening here, other charts further south however.

Living in Madrid seeing snow is pretty rare although last time I came to the UK in March it was snowing there 

[MattStoke]

The Met Office app forecast for my home town in NW Greater London, where I am for Christmas. The snow symbols have been increasing, suggesting the model they use is seeing this system taking a more southerly track. The complete removal of snow symbols from the forecast for Stoke also suggests this. Not necessarily correct, of course.

Edited December 26, 2017 by MattStoke

[northwestsnow]

Looks good guys.

Ignore the misery model (euro4).

edit aprege looks poor too.

Hopefully the king (ECM) is correct!!

 

Edited December 26, 2017 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks good guys.

Ignore the misery model (euro4).

 

I'm same as you for this, too far north

[Dancerwithwings]

Snow snow and more snow

This one just gives you an idea of the spread of precipitation whether it snow or rain but you can clearly see where most of it's going to be 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm same as you for this, too far north

Yes, i am petitioning for the word slider to be put into the swear filter 

Joking aside i think this is a nowcast for the guys in the midlands, there seems to be differences even at this close range.

GFS still on the crack pipe expecting the precip to get into north yorkshire lol...

[summer blizzard]

At this range the UKV/NMM are likely the ones to go with.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, i am petitioning for the word slider to be put into the swear filter 

Joking aside i think this is a nowcast for the guys in the midlands, there seems to be differences even at this close range.

GFS still on the crack pipe expecting the precip to get into north yorkshire lol...

Yes, GFS good for here, but not rated much