The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[wrcstarlet]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

listen to the forecast, "and turns the snow gradually to rain as the day goes on"???

Looks good for me, snow hangs around most of the day!

[Wadey]

Monday looks warm, also wind looks quite strong tomorrow could be quite an event ?

[phil nw.]

We can see the problem with forecasting where and how much snow will fall across our region.

A glance at the 2 fax's below

 

the frontal system coming ne and grinds to a halt as it hits the Midlands/Wales.It starts to waver and pivot-see the little kinks running along it.This is separating the higher dewpoints and temperatures just to the south.The whole system then starts to head back south by Monday

so it looks like remaining quite cold for a while after tomorrows event as we remain in the colder air for a couple of days with frosts at night.By mid-week though we  look out west with signs that the next frontal band will be less cold.

In the short term though it is a bit complicated wrt the approaching system as there is more than one low centre involved with one heading south into the continent which has the effect of pulling the whole shooting match se with it later Sunday and Monday. 

[Chunky Flake]

Will Cannock get snow tomorrow? Or is it a downgrade 

[Polar Maritime]

Light to moderate snow showers here continue with a heavy one just passing now.

[Eye to the sky]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Light to moderate snow showers here continue with a heavy one just passing now.

Yes the radar shows a few heavier showers moving through the Cheshire gap now.Cloudy here in Denby with the occasional flake of snow.

[V for Very Cold]

Clouds settling over MD... are we going to get 2 bites of the cherry? 

[weirpig]

Hot off the press up to date met office view of Sunday's event 

[MKN]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hot off the press up to date met office view of Sunday's event 

4-10cm in main warning area compared to 10-20cms widely is not the best news. Lets see what the 12z say

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

4-10cm in main warning area compared to 10-20cms widely is not the best news. Lets see what the 12z say

When did it say 10-20cm widely ? 

[MKN]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

When did it say 10-20cm widely ? 

Ok not 10-20 widely but clearly seems a lesser severity on that chart compared to this earlier

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A spell of snow is expected over a central swathe of the UK on Sunday. This snow starts to develop during the early hours of Sunday with the heaviest and most persistent snow then likely during Sunday morning. 10 cm looks likely quite widely within this warning area, with 15-20 cm in places. This warning has been updated to extend it a little further eastwards and pull the northern limit southwards.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Ok not 10-20 widely but clearly seems a lesser severity on that chart compared to this earlier

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A spell of snow is expected over a central swathe of the UK on Sunday. This snow starts to develop during the early hours of Sunday with the heaviest and most persistent snow then likely during Sunday morning. 10 cm looks likely quite widely within this warning area, with 15-20 cm in places. This warning has been updated to extend it a little further eastwards and pull the northern limit southwards.

A little different perhaps  but no real change. Still says 20cm possible high ground . Anyway let's get it here first then we can squabble about the amounts   here at least there still 3ish inches lying  so even if the worst misses here it will still be nice top up. Interesting runs coming up 

[Dancerwithwings]

And we are off     http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

[MKN]

 

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

 

Virtually the same output to the NMM'S earlier

[MKN]

Shift south on the 12z GFS...

[weirpig]

Midlands hammered for nearly 24 hours on the 6z. Perfect 

[MKN]

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, MKN said:

Shift south on the 12z GFS...

With all these allleged shifts south over the last 20 runs I was expecting it to be in Spain by now. Its in the exact same place as it was yesterday. Think Im not going to watch the charts anymore. Fed up of the initial panic then seeing that actually nothing has changed.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Snowy L

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

With all these allleged shifts south over the last 20 runs I was expecting it to be in Spain by now. Its in the exact same place as it was yesterday. Think Im not going to watch the charts anymore. Fed up of the initial panic then seeing nothing has changed.

When i said further south its the angle of the initial approach sees north wales take a tad longer to get in the action. Not much change as you would expect at this range. The only difference with it noticeable is that the GFS does not extend the snow risk eastwards like Metoffice have said if anything east of leicestershire it quickly turns to rain.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

With all these allleged shifts south over the last 20 runs I was expecting it to be in Spain by now. Its in the exact same place as it was yesterday. Think Im not going to watch the charts anymore. Fed up of the initial panic then seeing that actually nothing has changed.

There have been shifts south though. For those of us in the south Midlands/home counties these subtle shifts are making all the difference!

Either way, the north Midlands are getting a pasting tomorrow.

[snowstorm27x]

6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

With all these allleged shifts south over the last 20 runs I was expecting it to be in Spain by now. Its in the exact same place as it was yesterday. Think Im not going to watch the charts anymore. Fed up of the initial panic then seeing nothing has changed.

Looking good thx for info I wonder where it will pivot and stall that is where massive falls will be.

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

With all these allleged shifts south over the last 20 runs I was expecting it to be in Spain by now. Its in the exact same place as it was yesterday. Think Im not going to watch the charts anymore. Fed up of the initial panic then seeing that actually nothing has changed.

LMOA....That's what we want....To stay right where it is and dump a mother load on top of us

[MKN]

GFS 12z has some heavyish snow in the south east for a time as the low clears should cheer them up

Edited December 9, 2017 by MKN

[markw2680]

I honestly think we are going to get absolutely clobbered in the midlands