The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards

[shaky]

My god gfs further north again!!so its meto v gfs now lol!!if you look at the middle ground between the 2 models you would think somewhere in the midlands is gone get buried tomorrow!!

[mother nature rocks]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god gfs further north again!!so its meto v gfs now lol!!if you look at the middle ground between the 2 models you would think somewhere in the midlands is gone get buried tomorrow!!

Surely UKMO have a better handle on this at this late stage. GFS will push south again later.

plus on a side note more of the hi res forecasts have it further south

Edited December 9, 2017 by mother nature rocks

[BarometerCat]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hi guys...

Just started to snow quite moderately here.. so they are still getting well south of Bham.

Looking at the Radar they are still moving pretty steadily SE (instead of SSE as per yesterday), so more of us in the more central areas could see them before they move off to the Peak. District later

The showers are still packing into the Cheshire gap and they should reach here in 2 hours.

 MIA

So some may get a starter before the main course tomorrow 

0c here and what the 10 minute snow shower left last night is still on the ground. Looks and feels like winter a bit a least. 

[Cov87]

1 minute ago, mother nature rocks said:

Surely UKMO have a better handle on this at this late stage. GFS will push south again later.

Yeah wouldnt worry about GFS at this stage think meto have this nailed on it will stay slightly south which is good for the whole of the midlands!!

[MKN]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god gfs further north again!!so its meto v gfs now lol!!if you look at the middle ground between the 2 models you would think somewhere in the midlands is gone get buried tomorrow!!

Knocks about 12 hour period of snowfall of for most aswell ending by 9pm sunday rather than 9am monday. 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

My god gfs further north again!!so its meto v gfs now lol!!if you look at the middle ground between the 2 models you would think somewhere in the midlands is gone get buried tomorrow!!

The central suathe of the midlands will do very well tomorrow. I said Brum was the sweet spot a few days ago because it allowed for wriggle room north and south. looks spot on. 

Good luck tomorrow - reminds me of the seventies/early eighties back in Leicester. driving back from a visit to London and encountering the snow line half way up the M1. 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The central suathe of the midlands will do very well tomorrow. I said Brum was the sweet spot a few days ago because it allowed for wriggle room north and south. looks spot on. 

Good luck tomorrow - reminds me of the seventies/early eighties back in Leicester. driving back from a visit to London and encountering the snow line half way up the M1. 

Yeh your spot on bluearmy central swathe gona get a good dolloping tomorrow lol!!but then why does the gfs keep pushing things north on the 06z but then back south again on 12z?!!i do think leicester coventry and birmingham are perfectly placed for this event!!

Edited December 9, 2017 by shaky

[Snowy L]

After all the southern corrections last night Im happy at least one model is correcting North. A middle ground would be great.

[tyson99]

Can I ask which may seem a stupid question to you more experienced weather watchers 

for my location approx 8 miles NW of Nottingham city which would be better for snow , gfs to move further north or south ??? 

Any thoughts would help !

Thanks 

[shaky]

My god take a look at the hirlam model!!its not backing down at all for the midlands!!some parts get 25cms!!to be fair the southern extent of snow is in line with fergies thoughts!!

[andy_leics22]

20 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Yeah wouldnt worry about GFS at this stage think meto have this nailed on it will stay slightly south which is good for the whole of the midlands!!

I would urge caution at the moment. I've seen the GFS outdo the UKMO in borderline scenario's at this timeframe in the past, more than once.

Don't discount the Gfs yet but i'm hoping that the UKMO is correct. If the GFS turns out to be correct, my location will see sleet at best and I won't be a happy bunny 

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

Can I ask which may seem a stupid question to you more experienced weather watchers 

for my location approx 8 miles NW of Nottingham city which would be better for snow , gfs to move further north or south ??? 

Any thoughts would help !

Thanks 

Tyson.

 You need it to move north slightly for best results. (GFS), (That is if you want deep  snow - as I assume!!!)

 but you should get snow in either event, as long as it doesn't move too far south.

MIA

Edited December 9, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[Polar Maritime]

Snow flurries here just now, Temp 0c with still around an inch snowcover from yesterday.

[tyson99]

5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Tyson.

 You need it to move north slightly for best results. (GFS), (That is if you want deep  snow - as I assume!!!)

 but you should get snow in either event, as long as it doesn't move too far south.

MIA

Thanks for your reply and help !

so is it loving south constantly in each update or alternating between north and south ?

[Cov87]

7 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I would urge caution at the moment. I've seen the GFS outdo the UKMO in borderline scenario's at this timeframe in the past, more than once.

Don't discount the Gfs yet but i'm hoping that the UKMO is correct. If the GFS turns out to be correct, my location will see sleet at best and I won't be a happy bunny 

True...valid point but i feel the gfs has been chopping and changing to much meto has been pretty steady so far...

[MKN]

Says 10 to 20 but showing just 10. Perhaps they are not convinced on higher totals.

[BarometerCat]

Light snow here now. Cheeky starter and not forecast  

[snow freak]

I really hope Northampton gets a good dumping of snow tonight and tomorrow.  we havent even had so much as one flake so far and the past few years have been awful.  I really need to see one decent snowfall or i will go insane.  At least the Met forecast has upgraded for our region since yesterday when it was mainly sleet but now heavy snow, so fingers crossed it doesnt downgrade between now and tomorrow morning.

[WinterWilf]

Prefer yesterdays ecm. Hopfully will change back.

[TheIceManCometh]

This may seem daft, but the odds on schools being closed in Coventry on Monday?

Hosting an event for over a thousand people. To lose it would be expensive but of schools shut I'll have no choice.

Is Coventry nailed on for disruptive levels?

[Midlands Ice Age]

13 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

Thanks for your reply and help !

so is it loving south constantly in each update or alternating between north and south ?

Tyson..

Its wobbling around from run to run.

The experts are now saying that the max is now 25 miles either way. So you should be safe.

But there is the added complication of a new possibly very deep low (not formed yet) over Northern Spain and the Bay of Biscay coming in to play at the end of the 'event'.   It is a very complicated and quite unusual happening right now.

MIA

[Polar Maritime]

Moderate snow here now.

[rock500]

13 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Light snow here now. Cheeky starter and not forecast  

Yep light snow in West Leicester 

[Sparkiee storm]

16 minutes ago, MKN said:

Says 10 to 20 but showing just 10. Perhaps they are not convinced on higher totals.

Maybe that's the totals for 8am as that's the time when its showing that, by the end of Sunday it may be much more. 

[MattStoke]

Snow showers all morning. Getting a good covering. Some big ones approaching.