Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I have to agree that the signs are pointing to an increase in severe weather potential. However as we know the the weather has dynamic fluidity which can tend to leave us all high and dry. 

Although I am not on tour 2 the prognosis is favorable.

 

Tom 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 51
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For all you Tour 2 guests getting excited for the Upcoming Season - A selection of Pictures from the last 4 years chasing (2013-2017) Tour 2 is still primarily a Southern Plains target although it is

Storm chasing isnt always about storms.  Not who took the above , It could have been John Finney, it could have been me. I dont need to tell  you who this is -  Chicken George

Storms or no storms, there will be ample beer and banter to keep us going.

Posted Images

Storm chasing isnt always about storms. 

DSC00952.thumb.JPG.730e18d938a6ec8337c93a8381aaeefd.JPG

Not who took the above , It could have been John Finney, it could have been me.

DSC00870.thumb.JPG.e2119269022abe85def9a58509997d0f.JPG

I dont need to tell  you who this is -  Chicken George

DSC00648.thumb.JPG.5e9c3302ecdc11f3e37e3119715bc342.JPG

Got to stop at the state line for the obligatory team photo 

 

DSC00618.thumb.JPG.4634ce9865a9cafe47cf4f23ca48296b.JPG

Not all the super heroes died in the making of this movie

DSC00869.thumb.JPG.491c06c132ac36059df26011040cbe2a.JPG

Doctor Josh sharing memories with Chicken George. 

Edited by Tom Lynch
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

Edited by Nick L
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

You are the weatherman, you tell me. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

You are the weatherman, you tell me. 

I want to be told I'm chatting poo, wouldn't be the first time ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I want to be told I'm chatting poo, wouldn't be the first time ?

No i think you have a valid point but as an optimist i will retain my hesitant positivism,  On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

  

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

No i think you have a valid point but as an optimist i will retain my hesitant positivism,  On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

  

Storms or no storms, there will be ample beer and banter to keep us going.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

 On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

Tom, even in the land of BIG, LARGE and excessive, a 10kg pot of sunscreen would last you.......a lifetime 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Nick L said:

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

The range 12-15 days is waxing and waning with regard severe potential but I guess this is typical. Only yesterday the period 22nd-27th May was looking very good but this morning we have a E GOM low that cuts the moisture feed. 

The bottom line is it doesn’t matter a jot what the models say until the afternoon I get to DFW - then I really get interested!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, John Finney said:

Lots of predictions for T2, I am sure it will be fun no matter what happens... 

How many people and how many cars will there be on T2?? 

_DSC7443 web.jpg

2 cars, both full I think. Loads of dropouts this year. 

Just had a quick scan through the EC and it's no longer looking like dog turds, hooray! Need to do a bit of storm chase shopping today and then packing tomorrow. 

Edited by Nick L
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking a bit ‘ridgy’ again from the 23rd but I’m sure there’ll be opportunities.

We’ve also got a trip to Wyoming planned if there’s a three day drop-out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 15/05/2018 at 09:52, Nick L said:

2 cars, both full I think. Loads of dropouts this year. 

Just had a quick scan through the EC and it's no longer looking like dog turds, hooray! Need to do a bit of storm chase shopping today and then packing tomorrow. 

Dropouts ?  that is no way to talk about the guests Paul.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There’s a fairly persistant signal now for a ridge to scour the moisture from the plains between 28th May and 1st June. It seems to quickly recover though but this really is in long range territory.

We fly on the 25th so maybe a few days action before the calm descends.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

Dropouts ?  that is no way to talk about the guests Paul.

Calling me Paul? How very dare you. I'm not from Essex thank you very much.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Nick L said:

Calling me Paul? How very dare you. I'm not from Essex thank you very much.

The message was directed at Paul M   the bit about stop moaning was directed at you! ? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tom Lynch said:

The message was directed at Paul M   the bit about stop moaning was directed at you! ? 

i know the difference - Paul dont like cows 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tom Lynch said:

i know the difference - Paul dont like cows 

So it was you calling people dropouts as well as moaning and being negative 

On a serious note .  Have a great tour 2 and I am looking forward to catching up with you on the 30th May. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

So it was you calling people dropouts as well as moaning and being negative 

On a serious note .  Have a great tour 2 and I am looking forward to catching up with you on the 30th May. 

 Are you okay Tom? :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

From latest 4-8dy SPC outlook:

...DISCUSSION...
   Uncharacteristically weak flow regime, for mid May, is expected to
   persist this week across most of the CONUS. As a result, severe
   predictability will necessarily be low during the day4-8 time frame.

Sums up the situation rather well. The lack of decent upper wind profiles means you’re relying on marginal moisture return and a moderate diurnal LLJ which makes chasing storms something of a challenge at the moment.

Link to post
Share on other sites

TOUR 2  Monday 21 May 

I believe that the team stopped in Amarillo last night.   This will put them in place for a chase in New Mexico.  It looks like New Mexico could provide some nice cells today.  Another Roswell would be nice.  There is a 2% tornado risk which could be around the Carlsbad area. An area which we have chased many a time. 

Tom

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

TOUR 2  Monday 21 May 

I believe that the team stopped in Amarillo last night.   This will put them in place for a chase in New Mexico.  It looks like New Mexico could provide some nice cells today.  Another Roswell would be nice.  There is a 2% tornado risk which could be around the Carlsbad area. An area which we have chased many a time. 

Tom

 

For the sake of the teams, a slight upgrade would be nice for them! 

Looks like an early initiation of the storms in Western/ Central NM with some multicell storms firing before merging into a line.  this is the early HRRR run so hopefully some upgrade later on.

 

Gee

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...