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Tour 2 2018


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

I have to agree that the signs are pointing to an increase in severe weather potential. However as we know the the weather has dynamic fluidity which can tend to leave us all high and dry. 

Although I am not on tour 2 the prognosis is favorable.

 

Tom 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

Storm chasing isnt always about storms. 

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Not who took the above , It could have been John Finney, it could have been me.

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I dont need to tell  you who this is -  Chicken George

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Got to stop at the state line for the obligatory team photo 

 

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Not all the super heroes died in the making of this movie

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Doctor Josh sharing memories with Chicken George. 

Edited by Tom Lynch
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

You are the weatherman, you tell me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
13 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

You are the weatherman, you tell me. 

I want to be told I'm chatting poo, wouldn't be the first time 

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
20 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I want to be told I'm chatting poo, wouldn't be the first time 

No i think you have a valid point but as an optimist i will retain my hesitant positivism,  On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

  

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
4 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

No i think you have a valid point but as an optimist i will retain my hesitant positivism,  On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

  

Storms or no storms, there will be ample beer and banter to keep us going.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
9 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

 On a cheerful note i have a 10kg tub of suncream going cheap. 

Tom

Tom, even in the land of BIG, LARGE and excessive, a 10kg pot of sunscreen would last you.......a lifetime 

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
11 hours ago, Nick L said:

Can you guys point to the increase in severe potential in the models? I'm sorry but I'm really not seeing it! The optimism I had last week has evaporated. The jet profile continues to look garbage.

The range 12-15 days is waxing and waning with regard severe potential but I guess this is typical. Only yesterday the period 22nd-27th May was looking very good but this morning we have a E GOM low that cuts the moisture feed. 

The bottom line is it doesn’t matter a jot what the models say until the afternoon I get to DFW - then I really get interested!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy!
  • Location: Derbyshire

Lots of predictions for T2, I am sure it will be fun no matter what happens... 

How many people and how many cars will there be on T2?? 

_DSC7443 web.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
12 hours ago, John Finney said:

Lots of predictions for T2, I am sure it will be fun no matter what happens... 

How many people and how many cars will there be on T2?? 

_DSC7443 web.jpg

2 cars, both full I think. Loads of dropouts this year. 

Just had a quick scan through the EC and it's no longer looking like dog turds, hooray! Need to do a bit of storm chase shopping today and then packing tomorrow. 

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

We might have a tropical system to deal with across the SE from the 27th May - it’s a fairly persistent signal. 

How far is Florida from Dallas?

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Looking a bit ‘ridgy’ again from the 23rd but I’m sure there’ll be opportunities.

We’ve also got a trip to Wyoming planned if there’s a three day drop-out.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Currently twiddling my thumbs in Heathrow. I'm on my way!

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
7 hours ago, Nick L said:

Currently twiddling my thumbs in Heathrow. I'm on my way!

Shut up moaning.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
On 15/05/2018 at 09:52, Nick L said:

2 cars, both full I think. Loads of dropouts this year. 

Just had a quick scan through the EC and it's no longer looking like dog turds, hooray! Need to do a bit of storm chase shopping today and then packing tomorrow. 

Dropouts ?  that is no way to talk about the guests Paul.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

There’s a fairly persistant signal now for a ridge to scour the moisture from the plains between 28th May and 1st June. It seems to quickly recover though but this really is in long range territory.

We fly on the 25th so maybe a few days action before the calm descends.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
5 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

Dropouts ?  that is no way to talk about the guests Paul.

Calling me Paul? How very dare you. I'm not from Essex thank you very much.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
8 hours ago, Nick L said:

Calling me Paul? How very dare you. I'm not from Essex thank you very much.

The message was directed at Paul M   the bit about stop moaning was directed at you!  

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
Just now, Tom Lynch said:

The message was directed at Paul M   the bit about stop moaning was directed at you!  

i know the difference - Paul dont like cows 

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
1 minute ago, Tom Lynch said:

i know the difference - Paul dont like cows 

So it was you calling people dropouts as well as moaning and being negative 

On a serious note .  Have a great tour 2 and I am looking forward to catching up with you on the 30th May. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
5 hours ago, Tom Lynch said:

So it was you calling people dropouts as well as moaning and being negative 

On a serious note .  Have a great tour 2 and I am looking forward to catching up with you on the 30th May. 

 Are you okay Tom? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

From latest 4-8dy SPC outlook:

...DISCUSSION...
   Uncharacteristically weak flow regime, for mid May, is expected to
   persist this week across most of the CONUS. As a result, severe
   predictability will necessarily be low during the day4-8 time frame.

Sums up the situation rather well. The lack of decent upper wind profiles means you’re relying on marginal moisture return and a moderate diurnal LLJ which makes chasing storms something of a challenge at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

TOUR 2  Monday 21 May 

I believe that the team stopped in Amarillo last night.   This will put them in place for a chase in New Mexico.  It looks like New Mexico could provide some nice cells today.  Another Roswell would be nice.  There is a 2% tornado risk which could be around the Carlsbad area. An area which we have chased many a time. 

Tom

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
21 minutes ago, Tom Lynch said:

TOUR 2  Monday 21 May 

I believe that the team stopped in Amarillo last night.   This will put them in place for a chase in New Mexico.  It looks like New Mexico could provide some nice cells today.  Another Roswell would be nice.  There is a 2% tornado risk which could be around the Carlsbad area. An area which we have chased many a time. 

Tom

 

For the sake of the teams, a slight upgrade would be nice for them! 

Looks like an early initiation of the storms in Western/ Central NM with some multicell storms firing before merging into a line.  this is the early HRRR run so hopefully some upgrade later on.

 

Gee

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