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Paul

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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With this chart for around next Thursday and beyond the following weekend. 

Some very stormy weather indeed along with snow/ rain.

I've also noticed later on in the run . A 1045mb high pressure. West of the uk over the Atlantic that potentially. 

Leaves me thinking about the possibility of the models struggling to grasp much more beyond next Friday. 

I know that's generally the case.

But I'll be watching the coming days with interest. Given my location. 

Storm force winds from this direction at this time of year." close roads and make enormous snow drifts.

17120718_0106.gif

Edited by sorepaw1

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Yes please! If this is how we are trending, more of the same from the subsequent models please. IMO a much more realisitc evolution than the majority we have seen of late.

GFSOPNH06_201_1.thumb.png.29fc988ec56a504be06bf197e23f2001.png

This is just what we want to see.The period around 9th does indeed seem to be the one to watch (as Steve Murr has been pointing out for quite a while). The meridional jet looks increasing likely to dive southwards over us and drag a viscious delicious looking low with it. Not only does it bring massive opportunites for some serious back edge snow for many in the UK, this, assuming it can dig down low enough, is potentially Nirvana for the Alps, both in terms of timing and associated snowfall. It was already looking like the best start to the skiing season for a good number of years, this would be the icing,

Edited by s4lancia

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21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still looking at something quite far out, but an interesting theme as I think BlueArmy mentioned somewhere developing D8-D15 - the theme of lows diving NW-SE into cold air ahead of the UK, with plentiful marginal snow events on the leading edge.

GFS 06 op has this (T300, after a near miss at T264)

gfs-0-300.png?6 ECM clusters: the two main clusters at T240 have potential for this: ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_240.

and both D13 clusters could lead to this as well:       ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_324.

Thanks for posting these clusters with each run - very useful for getting a quick overview without even having to navigate away from the forum :good:
I just brought myself back to reality with a bang when it hit me how much of a forecaster's nightmare the GFS 06z what with those multiple marginal events all over the country :shok::D

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Just now, weirpig said:

much more support on the ensembles 

graphe3_1000_240_83___.gif

Absolute corker!

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolute corker!

It is Indeed   shows aswell lower uppers on quite a few compared to the OPP    looking good   these are for Brum  so further south may also be in with a chance of the white stuff

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

much more support on the ensembles 

graphe3_1000_240_83___.gif

Tell you what, WP - if that plunge makes it to T+120, I'll start to get excited...until then, I'll assume it to be yet another infamous GFS red herring?:cold::D

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No comment on anyone in particular but can we have a set place in the uk for the ensembles to be posted from unless a point is trying to be made about a specific location. 

On the approaching trough end next week, where you choose for the ens graph could have a big effect run to run. 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comment on anyone in particular but can we have a set place in the uk for the ensembles to be posted from unless a point is trying to be made about a specific location. 

On the approaching trough end next week, where you choose for the ens graph could have a big effect run to run. 

True but you can find out where the ensembles are for, just tap the co-ordinates into google and it will show you a map with the exact point on it.

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London manchester glasgow always used to work in the good old WZ days

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Just looked at the 6z and what a feast for cold-lovers' eyes that is. Perhaps the most important considerations are that 1. the trend is once again favourable and 2. the ensembles are giving support.

There's a long way to go, in that we're talking about 5 to 6 days for the low to drag the northerly regime back but this is extremely encouraging.

If the trend does continue this way then we may see some epic runs over the next day or two. We all know that it may go pear-shaped but this is the most encouraging start to winter I can remember for a very long time. Dare one mention 1978/9 or does that put the mockers on it? Certainly some synoptic similarities in terms of northerly / north-easterly orientation. The east coast low next week would be a peach.

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Amazing 6z full of wintry reloads and the jet digging well south..sidney looks worried!:D:cold:

imageproxy.gif

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Good support for another cold spell to develop later next week and through to mid-December

graphe_ens3_tzq2.thumb.gif.d1d9b5894790640d2118ae219fc91462.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good support for another cold spell to develop later next week and through to mid-December

graphe_ens3_tzq2.thumb.gif.d1d9b5894790640d2118ae219fc91462.gif

around  05

they look good to me - majority plunge of the cliff as that low passes through  next Friday - with a nice cluster flat-line -5 to follow. Plenty  of time and support for a gentle drift down to -7/-8

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing 6z full of wintry reloads and the jet digging well south..sidney looks worried!:D:cold:

imageproxy.gif

Then again, it's sure to keep his nuts fresh?

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolute corker!

Yep even London ensembles on the GEFS 6z are a corker . Lots off flat lining 👍🏻. 

IMG_0701.PNG

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Much colder 850mb temperature range in the GFS 6z, here in Porthcawl (near Swansea) South Wales with a max of 8C to a minimum of -10C and the snow risk appearing again (albeit <20%) but unfortunately this isn't expected to happen until a week's time. :nea:

image.gif

Edited by Draig Goch

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep even London ensembles on the GEFS 6z are a corker . Lots off flat lining 👍🏻. 

IMG_0701.PNG

 

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good support for another cold spell to develop later next week and through to mid-December

graphe_ens3_tzq2.thumb.gif.d1d9b5894790640d2118ae219fc91462.gif

 

Yes, Normally i would be very sceptical of those uppers in the low res, particularly if they were all PM incursions, they tend to deliver slushfests on the main drag while you look up and the mountains have massive drifts on them, but there is some support for battleground /slider / undercutter solutions and you can have a non-marginal snowfall with those uppers and synoptics

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Indeed knocks - tbh, I seem to recall some of your posts from the snow fest wintry  periods of four/ five years ago being quite enthusiastic .....

the London eps T2’s are perhaps not as impressive as they might be given the anomolys and clusters but then under cyclonic cold the surface isn’t going to be v chilly without snowcover and we know how unpredictable that is 

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18 minutes ago, knocker said:

If I may clarify a point here. I have absolutely no idea who are members of the so called "mildness" gang but I am certainly not one of them. It is no secret that I detest cold weather and I do so mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the imprint of 62-63 will forever remain with me and secondly, and far more importantly, as a vulnerable, elderly pensioner, and of course I'm not alone here, cold weather very much affects my health. But none of that is relevant as to how I approach the model output, which in my very simplistic manner, is based purely and simply on a meteorological analysis. Preferences and deliberate bias are no go areas.

tbh I only really start getting excited about cold prospects when i see you get on board.  And there have been such occasions lately - as would be natural in such times of model volatility as we have been seeing - when i have detected you alluding to the prospects of it turning cold and snowy.  It's just that you have to read your posts to detect those occasions rather than shortcut by means of any smileys used!  :)   Keep up the good work...it's much appreciated

Edited by Timmytour
spelling!

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now I know I'm not it's biggest fan, far from it actually BUT........ the CFS still shows a very upset, disorganised PV into the new year, with the AO still negative. Got to be a good thing! **Probably best not to look at the end of the run mind***

cfsnh-0-900.thumb.png.5faff7120acf5fc2405c9afc37932584.png73c7dc4a055e000e7beded4810b06d58a966f820d7795e4df72f9c4fbcfbd873.thumb.jpg.80dab14293d5d58a9c0570505078d6c8.jpg

 

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