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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Two outputs out of the way and no major dramas!

There are some differences upstream between the GFS and UKMO but positively these don't make much difference to the northerly post T144hrs.

The GFS then develops a shortwave running ese with snow on the northern flank.

As long as we don't get derailed before the block sets up the amplifying upstream troughing gives us a good chance to extend the cold.

In terms of tonights ECM the UKMO solves the irritation of the shortwave in ne Canada by taking this east not se.

That shortwave on the ECM phases with the ne USA low and then a further shortwave ejects east which this morning blew up and run towards the UK. You don't want this but that shortwave energy running east.

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.467282d81e75cae5da912527da5c4a64.gif

Both had this feature this morning and its a complication, given the UKMO still refuses to follow the ECM and doesn't make a drama out of it lets hope the ECM follows that and doesn't cause a forum meltdown!:cold-emoji:

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Here are the short ensembles for central England in graph form. The Northerly clearly showing at the end.

graphe3_1000_259_78___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS again toying with a 19th Nov '96 snowfest style shortwave, this run though, too far north for all snow in the south

 

h850t850eu.png

ECM the key though, not really on board yet

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

All in all, a good day for coldies. Ukm at 144 the pick of the bunch, looking forward to seeing the 168 chart. 

Great support from the gefs next week for a potent northerly.. snow chances aplenty. 

In the short term, those in the east, like me, should very much look forward to tomorrow!!

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well early days but im wondering if this is not going to be as good as the previous runs, not sure the high is as far north, early days tho hopefully i'm being too negative..

Just catching up on the 12z 

Your not. If this run verifies a week today there could be some large totals for someone  with this setup. 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
49 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That is about as best modeled AZH..

Iv'e seen!!!

Atlantic-map-for-web.jpg

imageproxy.png

And the high is displaced north..... thats why we have westerly and north westerly winds.

gfs-12-264.png?12

And before any on says anything I know it' not an anomaly chart.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Displacement of Arctic south as high pressure ridges across the Arctic

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.70d8a78f1cc7c19c22e331fbb53383b9.png

This shows what I mentioned earlier - much flatter across the Atlantic as pressure lowers on the US east coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

ECM looks like it’s going to be v good 

Only out to 72h but the trough is sharper so that is a plus certainly. Means the pattern should be a little further West than previously.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland

Isn't it amazing that with all the ups and downs and twoing and froing, the MILD spell this weekend has never at any stage been under threat or discounted. We just know it WILL happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

I'm scratching my head over the completely positive reception for the UKMO T144. I would have thought by T168/T192, heights would fail to remove themselves fully from France, the high in the Atlantic would slide ESE and the cold would never get to southern areas?

Just an opinion!!

GFS though nearly like last night's incredible 18Z

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM UK deflector shield still in operation.

ECH1-144.GIF?29-0

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Any reason why EC is blowing these lows UP?? its hard to go against the EC at this stage:nonono:

ECM1-144.gif

Agreed. No way the ECM will be that wrong at that stage. No Northerly the middle of next week, might have to wait for another attempt later next week.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Agreed. No way the ECM will be that wrong at that stage. No Northerly the middle of next week, might have to wait for another attempt later next week.

It could easily be wrong just as it could easily be right...... only time will tell 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm doesnt  look great @120hr more runs needed.:rofl:

ECM1-120.gif

No this run has bust already.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

might have to wait for another attempt later next week.

I admire your optimism!:D

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