Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[radiohead]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Really?

Two days later though

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Two days later though

Yes my thoughts!

Its all very knife edge via 12z gfs!!!

And could have quite easily been a lot earlier.

But again....just another variation atm.

Edited November 29, 2017 by tight isobar

[snowhope]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Two days later though

At this range neither have much chance of verifying as shown so its all Mute. Interesting that the low shows up from last nights 18z though, Look for trends, not specifics!

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Two days later though

Yep we still have displaced Azores high and low heights in Europe.

[Jonan92]

I mean, every situation shown by this runs will be very knife edge, when you have such small atlantic lows knowing how they will interact is perhaps the most difficult prediction task for current numerical models. The situation is quite amazing to see from a synoptic analysis, most situations that will favour cold will come from knife edgning scenarios IMO

[Jonan92]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Two days later though

On the other hand you have another amplification coming from behind

As I said before this situation will be changing a lot from run to run

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, snowhope said:

At this range neither have much chance of verifying as shown so its all Mute. Interesting that the low shows up from last nights 18z though, Look for trends, not specifics!

The trouble is both specifics and trends are obscene atm...

With regards placements and variable.

Edited November 29, 2017 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yep we still have displaced Azores high and low heights in Europe.

Forgive me but is that not the Azores in the center of the High?

 

Not that it matters at that range

Edited November 29, 2017 by winterof79

[igloo]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The CFS is the poundland version of a weather model, I think even the NAVGEM has a better reputation and that only gets pulled out of the bag once in a blue moon when we're really desperate.

Excellent GFS/UKMO 12z runs today. Shows that the cold, snowy option for next week is still very much on the time. Lets hope the ECM stops attention seeking with hurricane like lows from no where and moves more towards todays runs.

your right about the CFS model if you view it its monster low after low every two days till march which makes it pointless viewing to be fair and another thing the UKMO to my eyes does not look as good as some people make out the the atlantic HP quickly being flattened all eyes will be on this evenings ECM and hope this rogue low vanishes

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Forgive me but is that not the Azores in the center of the High?

 

Not that it matters at that range

 

Yes

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Forgive me but is that not the Azores in the center of the High?

 

Not that it matters at that range

Exactly does it really matter what is going on at day 11, when 'potentially' there could be a decent snow event for many before that. Most people are on here chasing snow in Winter so why look past a snow event? Baffling.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, igloo said:

your right about the CFS model if you view it its monster low after low every two days till march which makes it pointless viewing to be fair and another thing the UKMO to my eyes does not look as good as some people make out the the atlantic HP quickly being flattened all eyes will be on this evenings ECM and hope this rogue low vanishes

I'm no fan of the CFS, either...though it might verify more often than Piers Corbyn?

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm no fan of the CFS, either...though it might verify more often than Piers Corbyn?

Damn I've just this minute realised Piers Corbyn is Jeremy Corbyns brother, no idea why it took me that long

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yes

That is about as best modeled AZH..

Iv'e seen!!!

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm no fan of the CFS, either...though it might verify more often than Piers Corbyn?

The CFS thing comes up pretty much every year. If you're just watching the raw output 4 times a day, then yes it's not going to help much as it's not meant for that. The raw stuff has biases in it, that's why people such as NOAA don't publish just the raw output, they publish bias corrected, averaged products taking data for 7 days + and then presenting it. With that, it suddenly becomes a bit more useful.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles

Support for the initial Northerly plunge is very strong among 12z set.

There are naturally variations to strength and longevity of blocking and timing of the Northerly.

Only 3 members fail completely

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles

Support for the initial Northerly plunge is very strong among 12z set.

There are naturally variations to strength and longevity of blocking.

 

Thats good news Mucka- dont think anyone expects the blocking to last- its not really a true Greeny high we are looking at..

[Jonan92]

Control run looking good

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles

Support for the initial Northerly plunge is very strong among 12z set.

There are naturally variations to strength and longevity of blocking.

 

Yes, a better suite so far, a more defined ridge and is a tad further West on a lot of members than this morning where it was looking a bit supressed for precipitation.

[JeffC]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm no fan of the CFS, either...though it might verify more often than Piers Corbyn?

the number of rose hips along the hedgerow up from me verifies more often than Piers Corbyn...

Is it just me or are the models struggling to give consistency at almost any time period?

 

[booferking]

Quite a few ENS are showing better blocks than the op & control

[northwestsnow]

The ens look great to be honest- still wayyyyy to far out to have much confidence but another day closer to the northerly with no apparent backtracks- not from GFS anyway ..

[Mucka]

JFF (eye candy) P11 would certainly melt down the servers. Reverse zonal. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Quite a few ENS are showing better blocks than the op & control

Don't know about 'better blocks' - but some beta blockers might come in handy!

[northwestsnow]

Put it this way i think most of us would be very happy if EC finally shows something like 12zGFS- i know i would