Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[-uksnow-]

Very good 12z so far in my opinion, GFS is back up to last nights tricks of burying somewhere across the midlands..

 

[tight isobar]

Just now, -uksnow- said:

Very good 12z so far in my opinion, GFS is back up to last nights tricks of burying somewhere across the midlands..

 

However..

Any probable snow will quickly melt..

Azores high want to come knocking!!

[Day 10]

Still too far out for me but could be some fun and games here:

[Met4Cast]

The zoomed in charts don't really give a very clear picture, much prefer the NH view.

Not too dissimilar to last nights 18z. Undercutting shortwave running through the heart of the country is sub -8c uppers. Dumpings of snow for some. Low pressure going into France.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[radiohead]

That low is back! Pity it isn't a little bit further south. I do love these dramatic knife-edge scenarios though. Whiteout or washout.

 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

However..

Any probable snow will quickly melt..

Azores high want to come knocking!!

Really?

[northwestsnow]

Well if GFS is correct IMBY will get absolutely pasted with snow- south of the low will be rain but that can and will change before we get there im sure..

[ITSY]

Anyone who thinks this is a downgrade needs to sit in a dark room. 

[Ali1977]

Awesome run this, up there with a few days ago - sadly though it's no nearer than it was then!! 

[Weathizard]

Not to be particularly negative, but is it just me or are all the eye candy charts constantly staying in the day 8-10 range, not trying to be a negative nelly as the output is still promising just seems the cream always stays in the day 8+ range.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Really?

I know..quite a substantial switch..

We manage to get the trouging just correct...

And the waa turns its head...

And goes for the penultimate!!!

[northwestsnow]

Crikey another cold GFS run- not sure how it compares to ukmo at 144- ukmo showing 1035mb high over northern spain at 144- hope thats not going to scupper things..

[Day 10]

GFS & UKMO 144

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome run this, up there with a few days ago - sadly though it's no nearer than it was then!! 

Really the Next wave of arctic air hit's next tuesday and Wednesday according to that run and the MET run..... Looks nearer to me

[feb1991blizzard]

That's another Belting for Central Parts before the low moves off into those very appropriately named countries and the Northerly is dragged down.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GFS & UKMO 144

Only my opinion but GFS is much better - those heights across S Europe really look like potentially stopping any northerly?(ukmo)

Edited November 29, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but GFS is much better - those heights across S Europe really look like potentially stopping any northerly?

The heights are basically identical over S Europe on both the GFS and UKMO at 144. UKMO would go to produce something similar to the GFS 12z, seems like we're in a rut of upgrades in the afternoon/evening followed by downgrades in the morning. 

Just be consistent please, models!

Edited November 29, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GFS & UKMO 144

Looking at those two charts alone leaving aside the GFS evolution, you would say that UKMO is better.

Edited November 29, 2017 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

i'm delighted to say the Gfs 12z looks nothing like the benign snooze fest that the CFS  shows next week and I'm hoping for a more potent blast of arctic air next week..this run is very much showing that!

[knocker]

Not that this will verify for a minute but a fair illustration of the flimsy nature pf the ridge and the two energy flows.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Crikey another cold GFS run- not sure how it compares to ukmo at 144- ukmo showing 1035mb high over northern spain at 144- hope thats not going to scupper things..

Just on the basis of the run and not what IS going to happen but the 1035 UKMO HP over Spain isn't an issue because if you follow the run the HP is sinking down over Spain rapidly and not building up.  UKMO IMO would continue to lead to colder surge.

BFTP

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but GFS is much better - those heights across S Europe really look like potentially stopping any northerly?(ukmo)

Ukmo could potentially be more rewarding that shortwave could be back giving us a right pasting. I know its on the GFS but at a later timeframe, I prefer the UKMO, plus as long as the UKMO gets there, it would be better for prolonged cold.

[Met4Cast]

The CFS is the poundland version of a weather model, I think even the NAVGEM has a better reputation and that only gets pulled out of the bag once in a blue moon when we're really desperate.

Excellent GFS/UKMO 12z runs today. Shows that the cold, snowy option for next week is still very much on the time. Lets hope the ECM stops attention seeking with hurricane like lows from no where and moves more towards todays runs.

[northwestsnow]

Anyway i'm just happy with GFS12Z- plenty of cold and snow across parts of the UK and snowcover which would likely last 2 or 3 days- BANK!!

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but GFS is much better - those heights across S Europe really look like potentially stopping any northerly?(ukmo)

 

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Looking at those two charts alone leaving aside the GFS evolution, you would say that UKMO is better.

I would say they are both decent charts and I think the UKMO would still go onto show a decent Northerly. I'm sure someone will have the updated 168 UKMO soon?