Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[tight isobar]

The gfs certainly has the look of consistancy now...

And i'd have to begin to take its output seriously now-perhaps even latter frames!

It does appear to be getting its house in-order.

Lets see where 12z takes us???

Edited November 29, 2017 by tight isobar

[snowice]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well early days but im wondering if this is not going to be as good as the previous runs, not sure the high is as far north, early days tho hopefully i'm being too negative..

you are

[niconpat]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So are you saying that the 12z, for instance, has to be initialised at 1530?, surely the WMO have no power over government funded organisations from individual countries?

I think it's because the models have to wait for 12z real world observation data before they can run. The 12z can't instantly get a snapshot of real world data and start running immediately at 12z, the data would have to go through verification and other processing first. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Then the info in the meteociel app is incorrect (according to meteociel all run 1 degree?

Probably easier to refer to in resolution 

when you start talking degrees it can simply refer to the presentation of the data from NOAA/EXMWF

From memory, gfs op is 14km to T240 and gefs is around 30km to T192 and 60km thereafter. Note the eps are at 14km out to day 10.

there was a thread on this somewhere 

[Summer Sun]

t96 the southern tip of Greenland GFS has a 1040mb high UKMO doesn't

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, niconpat said:

I think it's because the models have to wait for 12z real world observation data before they can run. The 12z can't instantly get a snapshot of real world data and start running immediately at 12z, the data would have to go through verification and other processing first. 

No, but what I was suggesting was using only 2 runs per day but then having more time to run but was told it was WMO standard time runs that dictated this and not computing time.

[syed2878]

mods a qs. why isn’t the met 6 15 16 30days forecast moved in the moddel thread?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, syed2878 said:

mods a qs. why isn’t the met 6 15 16 30days forecast moved in the moddel thread?

What? ...

12z has the low off the Eastern Seaboard as much deeper compared to the 6z, very similar to the ECM.

[SylvainTV]

14 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Then the info in the meteociel app is incorrect (according to meteociel all run 1 degree?

The information might be outdated in the app. GFS is displayed at 0.25° and GEFS at 0.5°.

Moreover there is a difference between the actual resolution the models are run with, and the data resolution that we get to display. The models are not ran on traditional lat/lon grids.

the GFS model is currently computed with a resolution of about 13km ( T1534 , spectral truncation ), and we get it as 0.25° in usual grib files.
the GEFS model (control + 20 perturbations) is currently computed with a resolution of about 33km (T574, spectral truncation) until 192h and 55km (T382) till the end, and we get it as 0.5° or 1.0° in usual grib files.

Edited November 29, 2017 by SylvainTV

[johnholmes]

55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So are you saying that the 12z, for instance, has to be initialised at 1530?, surely the WMO have no power over government funded organisations from individual countries?

None at all but WMO is a UN fiunded set up so member states agree how things should be done. Not sure what time is cut off these days.

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What? ...

12z has the low off the Eastern Seaboard as much deeper compared to the 6z, very similar to the ECM.

The low being a little deeper is not too much the issue as it can help the ridge, what we don't want to see is lots of energy going over the top like the ECM does after day 5

[khodds]

Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

And it’s dragging our Greenland bound WAA with it 

Sorry, novice here.. is that good or bad? 

[niconpat]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, but what I was suggesting was using only 2 runs per day but then having more time to run but was told it was WMO standard time runs that dictated this and not computing time.

Are the WMO responsible for collecting and sorting the global observation data though? If they only release the 12z data at 1530z then no model can run any earlier. As somebody else mentioned, the model runs are relatively fast and I think we see their output in close to real time.

[Paul]

16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Then the info onmeteociel is incorrect (according to meteociel all run 1 degree? and there is another high resolution gfs, which only does certain areas 

The GFS is global, there are different output options available but the model itself is run at 0.25 degrees. Some sites such as Meteociel may only show the 1 degree or 0.5 degree data globally, but it is available in 0.25 degrees. We use it on our viewers:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

It's also available hourly at the 0.25 degree resolution:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-hourly

[frosty ground]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

t96 the southern tip of Greenland GFS has a 1040mb high UKMO doesn't

Fake Surface Pressure?

[mulzy]

UKMO 144 chart not bad at all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Edited November 29, 2017 by mulzy

[radiohead]

12Z GFS at T150 is a little less amplified than the 06Z, which in turn was a little less amplified than the 0Z. Not at trend we want to see as we get closer to the reliable timeframe.

But let's see what the rest of the run brings...

Edited November 29, 2017 by radiohead

[tight isobar]

A complete menace to allowing both ridging and notable cold further south..

Even the 850's are watered down...

But its still arctic air...

 

[-uksnow-]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GFS at T150 is a little less amplified than the 06Z, which in turn was a little less amplified than the 0Z. Not at trend we want to see as we get closer to the reliable timeframe.

 

But let's see what the rest of the run brings...

Yes less amplifie but by 168 the heights are cut off around Greenland as opposed to shunted and sinking east like the 6z, so an upgrade in my opinion.

[Weathizard]

Don't like this GFS run, UKMO looks much better upstream at 144, still no closer to any answer. As usual.

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

UKMO 144 chart not bad at all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Seen worse, but again could all go quickly wrong from there and shunt East.

[frosty ground]

The Block is about to be cut in half!

[Met4Cast]

Well the GEM quite frankly, sucks if you want prolonged cold

[Met4Cast]

GFS on the other hand..

Stunning. High pressure becoming cut off over Greenland, that block isn't going anywhere fast - Stella FI coming up

[frosty ground]

We have an undercut..... Straight through the middle of the country