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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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Hello

So after Monday's uncertainty we seem to have a pretty good idea as to how things will develop this week. A less cold interlude from Tues-Thurs, then a cold Friday and Saturday. Where things go from here are uncertain. Here is the key point at T132:

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So the Azores high tries to move to Greenland but we have the deep low over NE Canada.... If this low moves east then the ridging of the Azores high is interrupted and the pattern is flattened. Seems to be appearing on most runs now. The Greenland high although cold based can extend the window of opportunity but it seems it won't hold on long enough (could change though). I think there are 3 plausible scenarios overall:

                   Scenario 1: 10%                                      Scenario 2: 40%                               Scenario 3: 40% - Though perhaps some cooler westerlies
image.thumb.png.a9d6a691773e11ba8ad20c7d156b410d.pngimage.thumb.png.4103338d8b480731fbd8531086ba62dd.png image.thumb.png.4177dc223e7ca6e12286ea96751ad734.png

The first a Scandi high offers a decent route back back into cold though its got to happen pretty quickly after Fridays northerly hence the lower probability.

The next two unfortunately see the PV strengthening around the S Greenland area. Scenario 2 however offers a chance to extend our cold by moving the anticyclone over the UK. That wouldn't be so bad because it would be cold and maybe the high could build and hold back the Atlantic. It could also sink but lets wait and see, that would be ~10 or more days away.  The final scenario is a return to what we have seen in recent years.  Some mild days with SW winds interspersed with colder westerlies due to the cold air outbreaks from Canada moving into the NW Atlantic.

These are just my interpretations of the model output though. Hopefully we will get a nice surprise but it wouldn't surprise me if the Atlantic woke back up again. 

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You know what - I havent seen 1 hopecast on here. People have put all their points of view across in a pretty good mannor- infact its been pretty good debate. The only post that sticks out a mile

Still coming slowly off a cautious fence Long term total global atmospheric angular momentum trends can tell you a lot about pattern changes due to the effects the rises and falls in global wind-

Afternoon All - A frantic few days on here with pages & pages of posts flying through in a matter of hours- I think we have 2 main discussion points at the moment-  1) The short to

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47 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Or in other words, the strat would be taking a battering if we got to Xmas day and the stratospheric pattern was still as shown on that chart.

no, the strat is taking a battering now-

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this chart is showing it on the ropes being pummelled, with the referee about to step in-

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Edited by bobbydog
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20 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Can anyone tell me has the track of the low changed? Latest Arome run: gone is the milder air across South Wales tomorrow (initially for example Swansea was showing 10C and heavy rain) but if this is right, it would be 0-2C with snow or sleet! Look at the blues across Somerset & parts of north Devon too, again these areas looked milder on yesterday's runs as well! 

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Small nudge south by the look of it but a big difference showing there, interestingly the severe gales are also showing too, could be a potent snow storm somewhere if these combine! 

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FWIW, the earlier NMM in house hi-res model had more of the south midland and central southern England in play.......a case of nowcasting and lamp post watching me thinks....no more posts on tomorrow from me after my earlier moan about the amount of them! :wink:

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