Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, MKN said:

Its the marginal situation that is the issue otherwise id agree. Chances are it may begin as snow then turn to rain for a fair few at somepoint during the day. Of course some luckier ones may get a fair amount though.

Just taken a look at the snow depth charts!!and most of the midlands is 6 inches plus!!nearly 14cms!!

[northwestsnow]

EC brings in the Atlantic by tues so any snow cover is going to get wiped out rapido

Why cant we just get a nice cold bloody high to follow a good dollop of snow!!

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Where would you place the snow line BA? Looks a bit of a blizzard for some 

let you know in five mins when my ec snow charts catch up !

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by bluearmy

[ukpaul]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just taken a look at the snow depth charts!!and most of the midlands is 6 inches plus!!nearly 14cms!!

What website is that on? 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC brings in the Atlantic by tues so any snow cover is going to get wiped out rapido

Why cant we just get a nice cold bloody high to follow a good dollop of snow!!

Same as GFS?

[BleakMidwinter]

Just now, Northern Sky said:

Having said that with your location and altitude I'd be stocking up at the supermarket before Sunday

Being to the north and west of there, I'm rather glad that thanks to this discussion thread and some VERY useful explanations in various posts, I persuaded my other half to stop off and get our main shopping this evening instead of leaving it til the weekend...

[snowray]

It's not even nearly over and done with yet guys, T72 is still three days out, still a fair bit of chopping and changing to come, 50, maybe 100 mile shift still not only possible but very likely.

[Wivenswold]

11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Run for the storm shelters - oh wait, we have no storm shelters...

Forget the snow risk, I think the storm surge onto Essex and Kent coasts would be more of a worry. 

[phil nw.]

13 minutes ago, snowray said:

Latest T72 Fax. Very interesting indeed, theres a wave developing along the front, and its slightly further south too. Very cold chart with lots of snow stalling around the Midlands I'd say.

Mmm-if that verifies,could be very snowy for the central region icl.Wales.Low thicknesses,slack flow,stalling front,evaporative cooling-dp's and surface temps will decide on the day.As seen from GFS outputs a fine line but somewhere could well see several hours of snowfall,especially higher levels.

With that stalling,wriggling front a tough forecast right down to the wire i would think.

[bluearmy]

ec 12z is approx. 20/30 miles north of the 00z run with the snow line.

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

Forget the snow risk, I think the storm surge onto Essex and Kent coasts would be more of a worry. 

I think last week there was a GFS run bringing a deep low down the east cost for today or tomorrow.  Had that materialised the threat of a storm surge would have been greater since i believe Spring Tides in those areas have only just occured.

The fact this is now showing a couple of days later still presents a surge risk, but not as bad as it would have been had the projected low been arriving today or tomorrow since the tides are receding day by day

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

ec 12z is approx. 20/30 miles north of the 00z run with the snow line.

Yes i think the south are effectively out of the game as it stands.

But it could change again of course

[cowdog]

That ECM 144 frame has to be wrong on Metrociel it doesn't match the 120 and 168 frames at all.

[AWD]

EC12z provides some snowfall for the SE contingency on Monday.

[-uksnow-]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Where approximately is that snow line bluearmy?

 

 

Ca. 7 inches for large parts of the south coast.

Edited December 7, 2017 by -uksnow-

[Northern Sky]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ec 12z is approx. 20/30 miles north of the 00z run with the snow line.

That seems pretty good consistency blue? Do you still envisage major changes to that at this stage - ie 100 or more miles?

[Fozfoster]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think the south are effectively out of the game as it stands.

But it could change again of course

here you go   

Edited December 7, 2017 by Fozfoster
sorry :-(

[snowray]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Mmm-if that verifies,could be very snowy for the central region icl.Wales.Low thicknesses,slack flow,stalling front,evaporative cooling-dp's and surface temps will decide on the day.As seen from GFS outputs a fine line but somewhere could well see several hours of snowfall,especially higher levels.

With that stalling,wriggling front a tough forecast right down to the wire i would think.

If I had to Choose a location on Sunday for the honey pot of all day copious snowfall it would be from around Birmingham, across to Hereford and into mid Wales.

[igloo]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC brings in the Atlantic by tues so any snow cover is going to get wiped out rapido

Why cant we just get a nice cold bloody high to follow a good dollop of snow!!

dont be surprised if the second low does the same and makes a sw correction nearer the time like this first slider take a look at the gem model it has this same low smashing in to france but please enjoy the next three days or so and stop worrying about breakdowns will you. the snow has already started here with the first inch on the ground your turn on next

Edited December 7, 2017 by igloo

[bluearmy]

that Monday low brings v heavy precip compared to previous run and perhaps evap cooling has some effect re snowfall from it

not one to rely on at present but shows whats feasible I guess

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

If I had to Choose a location on Sunday for the honey pot of all day copious snowfall it would be from around Birmingham, across to Hereford and into mid Wales.

agree as it gives some wriggle room in both directions.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, cowdog said:

That ECM 144 frame has to be wrong on Metrociel it doesn't match the 120 and 168 frames at all.

the strong jet streak flattens the ridge just like the Saturday one does.

[SMU]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

The midlands gets a pounding on the ukmo 12z!!with the gfs going south aswell its a good start steve!!

HA HA prime location @T96- 8 inches of snow up here in the mountains of Kent

what could go wrong... at least were in the game at last...

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Where did the south coast snow come from thought everything was north. Is that Monday's snowfall? 

yes it is but I would be uber cautious on that possibility for the time being.

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

 

 

Ca. 7 inches for large parts of the south coast.

that says 8-12 inches for me!!! 

someone's had the crayons out, i would say i'm expecting cold rain but i'm thinking positively.

i'm expecting warm snow.....